Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06DHAKA6634
2006-11-09 08:13:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Dhaka
Cable title:  

SCENESETTER FOR A/S BOUCHER'S VISIT TO BANGLADESH

Tags:  PREL PGOV KDEM BG 
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OO RUEHCI
DE RUEHKA #6634/01 3130813
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 090813Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY DHAKA
TO RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI IMMEDIATE 9465
INFO RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 1358
RUEHKT/AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU 8794
RUEHLM/AMEMBASSY COLOMBO 7645
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL CALCUTTA
RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2598
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 006634 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NEW DELHI FOR A/S BOUCHER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM BG
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR A/S BOUCHER'S VISIT TO BANGLADESH


Classified By: Ambassador Patricia Butenis, reason para 1.4 d.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 006634

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NEW DELHI FOR A/S BOUCHER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM BG
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR A/S BOUCHER'S VISIT TO BANGLADESH


Classified By: Ambassador Patricia Butenis, reason para 1.4 d.


1. (C) Bangladesh is fixated on looming elections.
Turbulent in the best of times, this year they are plagued by
violence, a possible boycott, a wobbly caretaker government,
a meddling former ruling party, and an aggressive opposition
divided on whether it really wants an election. Despite
facing similar threats in 2001, that election ultimately
succeeded because of strong, coordinated leadership by the
President, the Chief Adviser, and the Chief Election
Commissioner.


2. (C) Today, two-thirds of that triumvirate reside in the
frail body of a 75-year-old retired professor with uncertain
instincts and loyalties, while the other third faces massive
pressure to resign for bungling and bias. Once
internationally hailed as an innovative mechanism for
conducting neutral elections, the caretaker government system
has been victimized by politicization of the judiciary
charged with providing its leadership, and may be in its
final iteration.


3. (C) The stakes are high because in this winner-take-all
environment, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party is poised to
become the first party in Bangladesh ever to win re-election.
While experts differ on who would win on a level playing
field, many agree that the victor will be the party with the
broadest coalition, which at this point means the former
ruling party.


4. (C) The immediate threat is renewed violence and its
possible triggering of a presidential State of Emergency.
Having already extended once its ultimatum to the government,
the Awami League says that on November 12 it will resume its
nationwide transportation blockade if its wide-ranging
demands are unmet. After pocketing the exit of Justice Hasan
as presumptive Chief Adviser, the Awami League's new top
demand is reconstitution of the Election Commission, whose
embattled chief refuses to quit, despite private pleas from
Chief Adviser Ahmed and many others.


5. (C) The opposition's blockade, if it aggressively enforced
and prolonged, would produce significant inter-party clashes
and other acts of violence. The order for emergency rule was
drafted in the final days of the outgoing government, is
waiting for the President's signature, and would, according
to the constitution, drastically curtail civil liberties. If
it lasted more than a few days, elections in January would be
an inevitable casualty. Some hard-line leaders of the
Bangladesh Nationalist Party favor almost immediate emergency
rule to ensure electoral victory, no matter how tainted.
Others expect President Ahmed to deploy, as an interim step,
the military if civilian law enforcement needs support.


6. (C) Boycott, justified or not, is another major threat.
Reports are mixed on Awami League president Sheikh Hasina's
bottom line, whether she wants a pretext to boycott and evade
the sting of possible electoral defeat, or whether in the end
she'll join the process, perhaps believing her own rhetoric
of enjoying massive popular support. We continue to hope the
Awami League will join the election, but the situation is
volatile.


6. (C) The Bangladesh Nationalist Party, and its alliance
partner Jamaat Islami, were largely victims in the last round
of violence, which killed 50 persons and injured hundreds
others. Promises of restraint by party chairperson Khaleda
Zia aside, supporters of the former ruling party have been
armed with sticks in anticipation of new clashes with the
Awami League. Zia insists her workers have the right of
self-defense.


7. (C) There is evidence that the former ruling party is
meddling with the caretaker government. It has secured
changes in personnel announcements, and apparently encouraged
Chief Adviser Ahmed to keep his generally talented advisors
on the sidelines, confining them to running the minor
ministries he allotted them. Some advisors have mused to
diplomats about resigning. Ahmed is reportedly furious that
the advisors, tired of meeting with him just once a week,
recently convened without him. Publicly, the caretaker
government appears inactive, ceding governance to the
bureaucrats it inherited, and has only partially reshuffled,
from the outgoing government.


8. (C) We continue to emphasize with all parties our support
for free, fair, credible, non-violent, and accepted

DHAKA 00006634 002 OF 002


elections. We have called for the empowerment of the
caretaker advisers to help guide the nation to free and fair
elections. We do not support or oppose any party, but urge
all sides to exercise restraint and resolve differences by
negotiation and compromise, not confrontation and violence.
BUTENIS

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