Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06DHAKA6582
2006-11-06 10:56:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Dhaka
Cable title:
OPPOSITION LEADER BLINKS ON ULTIMATUM
how-toVZCZCXRO0408 PP RUEHCI DE RUEHKA #6582 3101056 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 061056Z NOV 06 FM AMEMBASSY DHAKA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2536 INFO RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 9462 RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 1355 RUEHKT/AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU 8791 RUEHLM/AMEMBASSY COLOMBO 7642 RUEHCI/AMCONSUL CALCUTTA RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
C O N F I D E N T I A L DHAKA 006582
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/06/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM BG
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION LEADER BLINKS ON ULTIMATUM
Classified By: DCM Geeta Pasi, reason para 1.4 d.
C O N F I D E N T I A L DHAKA 006582
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/06/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM BG
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION LEADER BLINKS ON ULTIMATUM
Classified By: DCM Geeta Pasi, reason para 1.4 d.
1. (C) On November 3, Awami League president Sheikh Hasina
unexpectedly extended until November 11 her deadline for
government action on her 11 demands pertaining to the
upcoming elections.
2. (C) According to Awami League contacts, she made the
decision because of assurances from Chief Adviser Ahmed that
he was working on her principal demand to replace the
controversial Chief Election Commissioner and his senior
colleagues, and in reaction to Ambassador's public appeals
for more time and to forego new violence. Negative popular
reaction to the opposition-led violence, and fears that the
violence could spiral out of everyone's control, may have
been other factors.
3. (C) Our contacts are mixed on Hasina's genuine assessment
of her electoral prospects and the extent of her
determination to pursue confrontation. Some say she sees the
electoral arithmetic as stacked against her because of the
Bangladesh Nationalist Party's alliance with Jamaat Islami
and Ershad's Jatiya party, and that she is reconciled to
another terms as leader of the opposition. (Note: General
Ershad's announcement on November 6 that he is not rpt not
joining forces with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party could
prompt a radical reassessment of such views.)
4. (C) Contacts across the political spectrum agree there is
a coterie of Independence-era hard-liners in the Awami League
who oppose participation in the elections under any
circumstances because they anticipate defeat for the party
and themselves personally in their own constituencies.
5. (C) Comment: Hasina's decision to give the government more
time is welcomed, but it is unclear if this is just a respite
or signals a real change in approach. The outcome may hinge
on the fate of Chief Election Commissioner Aziz, who insists
publicly and privately (including to Ambassador late
today--septel) that the constitution and god prevent him from
resigning. Whether Hasina thinks she could win a fair
election, and would thus be amenable to compromise to get to
the polling, remains the big unanswered question. While we
expect our Awami League contacts to stress with us the impact
of the Ambassador's remarks, there is no question the Awami
League remains extremely solicitous of USG good will.
BUTENIS
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/06/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM BG
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION LEADER BLINKS ON ULTIMATUM
Classified By: DCM Geeta Pasi, reason para 1.4 d.
1. (C) On November 3, Awami League president Sheikh Hasina
unexpectedly extended until November 11 her deadline for
government action on her 11 demands pertaining to the
upcoming elections.
2. (C) According to Awami League contacts, she made the
decision because of assurances from Chief Adviser Ahmed that
he was working on her principal demand to replace the
controversial Chief Election Commissioner and his senior
colleagues, and in reaction to Ambassador's public appeals
for more time and to forego new violence. Negative popular
reaction to the opposition-led violence, and fears that the
violence could spiral out of everyone's control, may have
been other factors.
3. (C) Our contacts are mixed on Hasina's genuine assessment
of her electoral prospects and the extent of her
determination to pursue confrontation. Some say she sees the
electoral arithmetic as stacked against her because of the
Bangladesh Nationalist Party's alliance with Jamaat Islami
and Ershad's Jatiya party, and that she is reconciled to
another terms as leader of the opposition. (Note: General
Ershad's announcement on November 6 that he is not rpt not
joining forces with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party could
prompt a radical reassessment of such views.)
4. (C) Contacts across the political spectrum agree there is
a coterie of Independence-era hard-liners in the Awami League
who oppose participation in the elections under any
circumstances because they anticipate defeat for the party
and themselves personally in their own constituencies.
5. (C) Comment: Hasina's decision to give the government more
time is welcomed, but it is unclear if this is just a respite
or signals a real change in approach. The outcome may hinge
on the fate of Chief Election Commissioner Aziz, who insists
publicly and privately (including to Ambassador late
today--septel) that the constitution and god prevent him from
resigning. Whether Hasina thinks she could win a fair
election, and would thus be amenable to compromise to get to
the polling, remains the big unanswered question. While we
expect our Awami League contacts to stress with us the impact
of the Ambassador's remarks, there is no question the Awami
League remains extremely solicitous of USG good will.
BUTENIS