HASINA TELLS AMBASSADOR ELECTION COMMISSIONERS

C O N F I D E N T I A L DHAKA 006493 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/02/2016 TAGS: PGOV KDEM BG SUBJECT: HASINA TELLS AMBASSADOR ELECTION COMMISSIONERS MUST GO REF: DHAKA 06455 Classified By: Ambassador Patricia Butenis, para 1.4 d. ¶1. (C) Summary. Opposition leader Hasina indicated to Ambassador some flexibility on her demands for caretaker government action but underscored the centrality of "reconstituting" the Election Commission to avert renewed street violence after November 3. She discounted as cosmetic Chief Adviser Ahmed's personnel actions, complained the Bangladesh Nationalist Party appears to be still in power, and asserted that all of her demands could be met in three hours with the right political will. In a free election, she predicted, her opposition alliance would win 220 of 300 parliamentary seats. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) On October 31, Ambassador and poloff (notetaker) called on Awami League president Sheikh Hasina to discuss recent events. Also present were Awami League secretary-general Abdul Jalil and five other party SIPDIS functionaries. ¶3. (C) Ambassador welcomed Hasina's decision to give Chief Adviser Ahmed time to prove himself, and her suspension of the opposition's nationwide agitation program. She wondered, however, whether all 11 of Hasina's demands for caretaker government action (reftel) could be accomplished in just four days and whether Hasina might be flexible on her November 3 deadline. The opposition's objective, Hasina replied, is to "de-engineer" the election rigging concocted by the ruling coalition, and on November 3 it will take stock to see if Ahmed, "a (BNP) party man," has demonstrated sufficient "sincerity." She identified as an immediate requirement the replacement of the Election Commission's four commissioners and Secretary. ¶4. (C) Hasina dismissed as cosmetic Ahmed's 18 personnel actions the day before, noting that one key official whose contract was canceled was already due to retire November 1. Hasina said that at her meeting with Ahmed, she asked him if former Home Minister Babar were still in charge since police had just arrested more than 100 Awami League activists. ¶5. (C) Hasina defended opposition street action as vital for achieving "the people's" desire for neutral governance. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party has "armed cadres" from Jamaat Islami and the banned terrorist group Jamaatul Mujahidin Bangladesh, she charged, while Awami League supporters only have sticks and oars. Asked if the opposition would return to the streets if its demands were unmet, Hasina declared: "Of course. What else? All we have is people power with us." Ambassador urged Hasina not to resume agitation and to use democratic means, not confrontation, to achieve her objectives. ¶6. (C) Hasina reiterated that Ahmed's elevation to chief adviser was unconstitutional, and that his being both the head of state and government places too much power in one person and is a great physical burden on the frail Ahmed. She raised hopefully the possibility that a new chief adviser could be named in the near future. ¶7. (C) "All we want is a fair election," Hasina said, which she predicted would net at least 220 out of 300, parliamentary seats for the Awami League and its political partners. "We need your support, your pressure on the President and the Election Commission." ¶8. (C) Comment: November 3 is also the anniversary of the so-called jailhouse killings of four Awami League leaders in 1975, so the Awami League rally scheduled for that day to announce its next course of action will be extra surcharged. Whether Hasina renews nationwide agitation seems to hinge on whether the Election Commission has been purged by that point. Yesterday, Chief Election Commissioner Aziz repeated to media he has no plan to resign. If the election commissioners do resign, the next big battle would be over their replacements. BUTENIS