PRESIDENT SWORN IN AS CARETAKER CHIEF ADVISER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DHAKA 006422

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM BG
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT SWORN IN AS CARETAKER CHIEF ADVISER

REF: DHAKA 06416

Classified By: Ambassador Patricia Butenis, reason para 1.4 d.


1. (C) Summary. President Ahmed's surprise selection as head
of the caretaker government does not end Bangladesh's
political crisis, but gives the country a much-needed
breather. The opposition has sensibly adopted a wait-and-see
attitude on whether Ahmed acts to produce, as promised, free
and fair elections, and is suspending its nationwide
agitation programs. Ahmed, still frail after heart surgery
in May, must act quickly to assemble a good team of advisors,
deal with the contentious Chief Election Commissioner issue,
and react impartially and effectively to new acts of
political violence. End Summary.

Filling the Vacuum
--------------


2. (SBU) Following Justice Hasan's abrupt decision to decline
the leadership of the interim caretaker government and a
round of meetings on October 29 with political party
representatives (reftel),President Iajuddin Ahmed was sworn
in several hours later as chief adviser in a brief ceremony
at the presidency. The diplomatic corps, leaders of the
ruling party and its allies, and present and past government
officials attended, but the opposition Awami League did not,
claiming it had not received the invitation in time.


3. (SBU) Ahmed pledged to produce free and fair elections,
and said he had taken the constitutional option of giving
himself the job only after it became clear the political
parties could not agree on a consensus candidate. Declaring
that Bangladesh is "in grave crisis," he asked for the
nation's prayers for a successful mandate. Outgoing Prime
Minister Khaleda Zia expressed satisfaction with the transfer
of power, and made a brief courtesy call on Ahmed, as did
Awami League Secretary General Abdul Jailil.

Reaction
--------------


4. (SBU) Awami League president Sheikh Hasina told reporters
that her party views Ahmed's selection as unconstitutional
but that it neither accepts nor rejects him as chief adviser.
She expressed doubts about his impartiality but "as he has
taken the charge, it is now his responsibility to perform
neutrally and implement the reform proposals to create a
congenial atmosphere for holding free and fair elections."
Whether the Awami League accepts Ahmed hinges on what actions
he takes as chief adviser, Hasina added.


5. (SBU) Business leaders generally welcomed Ahmed's
appointment, urging him to take quick action to restore
security and conditions for normal business activity. Awami
League-leaning lawyers and civil society leaders objected
that Ahmed's appointment was unconstitutional because the
option of finding a consensus non-partisan chief adviser had
not been fully explored. The alacrity with which Ahmed moved
from party consultations to appointing himself chief adviser
contributed to a widespread perception, one major garment
producer told us, that the outcome was "pre-cooked."
However, they generally echoed and welcomed the Awami
League's "wait-and-see" attitude.

Next Steps
--------------


6. (SBU) Ahmed's immediate challenge is to name ten advisors
with ministerial portfolios. All should be reputed with no
direct connection to a political party. In that context, he
could also reshuffle ministerial secretaries -- the senior
civil servants who effectively run the ministries -- and he
will need to appoint his own office secretary since PMO
Principal Secretary Kamal Siddiqui's contract expires
November 1.


7. (SBU) Ahmed will also be scrutinized to see if he replaces
key police and local government officials who the opposition
alleges were appointed, many very recently, solely because of
their presumed loyalty to the Bangladesh Nationalist Party or
its coalition partner Jamaat Islami.


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8. (C) Perhaps Ahmed's biggest challenge is dealing with
Chief Election Commissioner Aziz, whose bungling and apparent
bias against the Awami League have cost him the confidence of
large parts of society, including key leaders of the
Bangladesh Nationalist Party. Aziz became the forgotten
factor while the spotlight was on filling the chief adviser
position, but demands for his removal -- and probably the
removal of the other three election commissioners -- will
return to center-stage. Election commissioners cannot be
fired but can be removed through impeachment -- not an option
with no parliament -- or resignation.


9. (SBU) Sheikh Hasina will pay her courtesy call on Ahmed
today at 1530 local. She is expected to restate her demands
for the removal of the chief election commissioner and for
other "reforms" to ensure a free and fair election.

Violence
--------------


10. (SBU) Bangladesh appears to be returning to normal,
despite continuing tension in a few provincial areas.
Activists are off the streets of Dhaka, buses are again
operating without incident, and the Awami League will
reportedly announce a suspension of its blockade program by
the end of the day. Chittagong port has reopened after being
shut down by the city's Awami League mayor.

Emergency Rule?
--------------


11. (C) On October 29, Dhaka was awash in rumors that
President Ahmed would announce "emergency rule," which,
according to the constitution, would result in the suspension
of a wide array of human rights, including freedom of
assembly and "freedom of thought." Multiple senior
government and Bangladesh Nationalist Party leaders told us
this option was under consideration, and might be invoked if
political violence escalated.


12. (C) In their initial meeting with Chief Adviser Ahmed,
the three service chiefs, according to one report, strongly
counseled against emergency rule -- which tracks with the
military's general aversion to open political involvement
that might jeopardize its UN peacekeeping opportunities. The
military, however, like the police, has canceled all leave
and is on two-hour standby to support civilian law
enforcement agencies as needed.

Comment
--------------


13. (C) Bangladesh has stepped back from one precipice but
several others lie before it:

-- Can Chief Adviser Ahmed demonstrate over the next two
weeks sufficient authority and neutrality to keep the
opposition inside the process?

-- Does Ahmed, who was visibly frail at his swearing-in
ceremony and is supposedly limited by his doctor to four-hour
workdays, have the stamina to be an effective president and
chief adviser?

-- How aggressively will the Awami League scrutinize Ahmed?
Is it determined to revert to confrontation after a decent
interval?

-- Will political violence re-ignite, derail the process, and
prompt some form of emergency rule?


14. (C) The political momentum swung dramatically from the
Awami League to the Bangladesh Nationalist Party in just 24
hours. When Justice Hasan stepped aside, the Awami League
stood tall, convinced it had won a major victory through
"people power" on the streets. The next day, the BNP
regained the initiative, and its confidence, by elevating
Ahmed to chief adviser and maneuvering the opposition, at
least temporarily, back into the electoral process. At the
reception following Ahmed's swearing in, Khaleda Zia beamed
at the Ambassador: "What do you think of our choice?"


15. (C) The country and, ironically, the Awami League, might

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have been better off with Hasan as chief adviser since his
links to the BNP were much more remote, his competence was
generally held in high regard, and there was no question
about his vigor. But having made Hasan the central issue in
its campaign, the Awami League, to its credit, recognized it
could not also peremptorily reject Ahmed as chief adviser and
on that basis justify continued nationwide agitation to an
apprehensive electorate. Hasina has now set the same
performance benchmarks for Ahmed as chief adviser that the
Awami League refused to consider for Hasan.
BUTENIS