PRESIDENT SWORN IN AS CARETAKER CHIEF ADVISER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DHAKA 006422 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/2016 TAGS: PGOV KDEM BG SUBJECT: PRESIDENT SWORN IN AS CARETAKER CHIEF ADVISER REF: DHAKA 06416 Classified By: Ambassador Patricia Butenis, reason para 1.4 d. ¶1. (C) Summary. President Ahmed's surprise selection as head of the caretaker government does not end Bangladesh's political crisis, but gives the country a much-needed breather. The opposition has sensibly adopted a wait-and-see attitude on whether Ahmed acts to produce, as promised, free and fair elections, and is suspending its nationwide agitation programs. Ahmed, still frail after heart surgery in May, must act quickly to assemble a good team of advisors, deal with the contentious Chief Election Commissioner issue, and react impartially and effectively to new acts of political violence. End Summary. Filling the Vacuum -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Following Justice Hasan's abrupt decision to decline the leadership of the interim caretaker government and a round of meetings on October 29 with political party representatives (reftel),President Iajuddin Ahmed was sworn in several hours later as chief adviser in a brief ceremony at the presidency. The diplomatic corps, leaders of the ruling party and its allies, and present and past government officials attended, but the opposition Awami League did not, claiming it had not received the invitation in time. ¶3. (SBU) Ahmed pledged to produce free and fair elections, and said he had taken the constitutional option of giving himself the job only after it became clear the political parties could not agree on a consensus candidate. Declaring that Bangladesh is "in grave crisis," he asked for the nation's prayers for a successful mandate. Outgoing Prime Minister Khaleda Zia expressed satisfaction with the transfer of power, and made a brief courtesy call on Ahmed, as did Awami League Secretary General Abdul Jailil. Reaction -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Awami League president Sheikh Hasina told reporters that her party views Ahmed's selection as unconstitutional but that it neither accepts nor rejects him as chief adviser. She expressed doubts about his impartiality but "as he has taken the charge, it is now his responsibility to perform neutrally and implement the reform proposals to create a congenial atmosphere for holding free and fair elections." Whether the Awami League accepts Ahmed hinges on what actions he takes as chief adviser, Hasina added. ¶5. (SBU) Business leaders generally welcomed Ahmed's appointment, urging him to take quick action to restore security and conditions for normal business activity. Awami League-leaning lawyers and civil society leaders objected that Ahmed's appointment was unconstitutional because the option of finding a consensus non-partisan chief adviser had not been fully explored. The alacrity with which Ahmed moved from party consultations to appointing himself chief adviser contributed to a widespread perception, one major garment producer told us, that the outcome was "pre-cooked." However, they generally echoed and welcomed the Awami League's "wait-and-see" attitude. Next Steps -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Ahmed's immediate challenge is to name ten advisors with ministerial portfolios. All should be reputed with no direct connection to a political party. In that context, he could also reshuffle ministerial secretaries -- the senior civil servants who effectively run the ministries -- and he will need to appoint his own office secretary since PMO Principal Secretary Kamal Siddiqui's contract expires November 1. ¶7. (SBU) Ahmed will also be scrutinized to see if he replaces key police and local government officials who the opposition alleges were appointed, many very recently, solely because of their presumed loyalty to the Bangladesh Nationalist Party or its coalition partner Jamaat Islami. DHAKA 00006422 002 OF 003 ¶8. (C) Perhaps Ahmed's biggest challenge is dealing with Chief Election Commissioner Aziz, whose bungling and apparent bias against the Awami League have cost him the confidence of large parts of society, including key leaders of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party. Aziz became the forgotten factor while the spotlight was on filling the chief adviser position, but demands for his removal -- and probably the removal of the other three election commissioners -- will return to center-stage. Election commissioners cannot be fired but can be removed through impeachment -- not an option with no parliament -- or resignation. ¶9. (SBU) Sheikh Hasina will pay her courtesy call on Ahmed today at 1530 local. She is expected to restate her demands for the removal of the chief election commissioner and for other "reforms" to ensure a free and fair election. Violence -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Bangladesh appears to be returning to normal, despite continuing tension in a few provincial areas. Activists are off the streets of Dhaka, buses are again operating without incident, and the Awami League will reportedly announce a suspension of its blockade program by the end of the day. Chittagong port has reopened after being shut down by the city's Awami League mayor. Emergency Rule? -------------- ¶11. (C) On October 29, Dhaka was awash in rumors that President Ahmed would announce "emergency rule," which, according to the constitution, would result in the suspension of a wide array of human rights, including freedom of assembly and "freedom of thought." Multiple senior government and Bangladesh Nationalist Party leaders told us this option was under consideration, and might be invoked if political violence escalated. ¶12. (C) In their initial meeting with Chief Adviser Ahmed, the three service chiefs, according to one report, strongly counseled against emergency rule -- which tracks with the military's general aversion to open political involvement that might jeopardize its UN peacekeeping opportunities. The military, however, like the police, has canceled all leave and is on two-hour standby to support civilian law enforcement agencies as needed. Comment -------------- ¶13. (C) Bangladesh has stepped back from one precipice but several others lie before it: -- Can Chief Adviser Ahmed demonstrate over the next two weeks sufficient authority and neutrality to keep the opposition inside the process? -- Does Ahmed, who was visibly frail at his swearing-in ceremony and is supposedly limited by his doctor to four-hour workdays, have the stamina to be an effective president and chief adviser? -- How aggressively will the Awami League scrutinize Ahmed? Is it determined to revert to confrontation after a decent interval? -- Will political violence re-ignite, derail the process, and prompt some form of emergency rule? ¶14. (C) The political momentum swung dramatically from the Awami League to the Bangladesh Nationalist Party in just 24 hours. When Justice Hasan stepped aside, the Awami League stood tall, convinced it had won a major victory through "people power" on the streets. The next day, the BNP regained the initiative, and its confidence, by elevating Ahmed to chief adviser and maneuvering the opposition, at least temporarily, back into the electoral process. At the reception following Ahmed's swearing in, Khaleda Zia beamed at the Ambassador: "What do you think of our choice?" ¶15. (C) The country and, ironically, the Awami League, might DHAKA 00006422 003 OF 003 have been better off with Hasan as chief adviser since his links to the BNP were much more remote, his competence was generally held in high regard, and there was no question about his vigor. But having made Hasan the central issue in its campaign, the Awami League, to its credit, recognized it could not also peremptorily reject Ahmed as chief adviser and on that basis justify continued nationwide agitation to an apprehensive electorate. Hasina has now set the same performance benchmarks for Ahmed as chief adviser that the Awami League refused to consider for Hasan. BUTENIS