NDI MISSION PROVIDES BLUNT ASSESSMENT OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 005836

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/13/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ASEC CASC BG
SUBJECT: NDI MISSION PROVIDES BLUNT ASSESSMENT OF
PRE-ELECTION ENVIRONMENT


Classified By: Acting A/DCM Dundas McCullough; reason 1.4(d)


1. (SBU) Summary and Introduction. The National Democratic
Institute (NDI) conducted a pre-election assessment of the
political environment in Bangladesh from September 8 to 11.
Its team was led by former Senator Tom Daschle and included
former New Zealand Prime Minister and World Trade
Organization founding director general Mike Moore and former
Cambodian government minister Mu Sochua. The team met with
government and political party leaders, representatives of
civil society, the media, and the Election Commission. It
presented its findings in a press conference on September 11.
End Summary and Introduction.

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TOO MUCH JOY
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2. (C) The team met with Awami League (AL) president Sheikh
Hasina on the first day of their visit, and then held another
meeting with an AL "technical team" led by Hasina's son,
Sajib Wazed "Joy", AL Presidium member Kazi Zafarullah and AL
MP Asaduzzaman Noor towards the end of the trip. During the
first meeting, the delegation endured a long history of the
Awami League and its travails under the current government.
Sheikh Hasina reiterated that the 2001 election was stolen
from her, but, according to NDI, she did not raise the issue
of a possible boycott.


3. (C) The second meeting was held on September 10, after the
AL's country-wide dawn-to-dusk strike had ended. The NDI
team opened by asking what the AL hoped to gain from the
strike. Rather then responding directly, Joy began a
Powerpoint presentation focused solely on AL demands for
changes in the electoral and caretaker government systems.
Frustrated with the repetition of the AL's demands, Senator
Daschle interrupted Joy by asking, "Is this going to take
much longer?" Moore asked about AL responsibility for street
violence, and asked how long they planned to follow these
tactics. According to NDI, the AL team "sat in stunned
silence" at the question. Daschle eventually cut the meeting
short and left with the rest of the NDI delegation.

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...AND NO TARIK
===============


4. (C) The delegation sought unsuccessfully for a meeting
with the Prime Minister. Haris Chowdhury, the PM's political
secretary, said that since the PM was unable to meet with all

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the pre-election assessment missions coming to Dhaka, she
felt it was not appropriate to appear selective. However,
Tarik Rahman, the PM's son and senior joint secretary of the
BNP, along with Chowdhury, agreed to meet with the delegation
on September 10.


5. (C) While several senior government members attended the
meeting, Tarik and Chowdhury did not turn up due to an
"urgent, last minute meeting." Instead, the BNP was
represented by two cabinet ministers and two former
ambassadors, all of whom seemed well prepared and eager to
appear reasonable. They told NDI that they did not agree
with the Prime Minister's decision not to meet with the
delegation. Most of the discussion dealt with problems with
the electoral list, which the BNP representatives insisted
was actually less of an issue than in previous elections.
When the delegation raised the issue of violence, the BNP
ministers present said they "realize that there is a problem
with the police." (In an earlier conversation with the
delegation, Foreign Minister Morshed Khan told Moore and
Sochua the police were "out of control.")

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AN UNRESPONSIVE CEC
===================


6. (C) The delegation and Chief Election Commissioner (CEC)
MA Aziz and the three other election commissioners discussed
technical aspects of the election, with a particular focus on
the voter list. When the delegation asked Aziz if he was
concerned that an astounding two-thirds of the population
seemed to be eligible to vote, Aziz did not respond. He
repeatedly denied that he had any reason to be concerned
about the voter list, the technical preparations for the
elections, the clamor for electoral reform, or demands that
he resign. Moore urged Aziz to do more to address the
perception of incompetence, and to reach out to the parties
represented in Parliament. Aziz sat in silence and did not

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react.

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BLUNT BUT BALANCED RECOMMENDATIONS
==================================


7. (SBU) In a press conference on September 11 that received
wide media coverage, Senator Daschle presented the assessment
mission's findings. He emphasized that while Bangladesh had
held three successful prior elections, their meetings
convinced them that no one should be "complacent about the
future of genuine democracy in Bangladesh." In a criticism of
the AL's boycott threat he stated that while the delegation
believed that legitimate questions about the electoral
process needed to be investigated and addressed, "the
election process cannot be held hostage by the intransigent
positions held by either the government or any political
party." Daschle also added that the battle between the two
largest political parties appeared to be estranging them from
the people. He called for dialogue between the two leaders,
and the creation of a post-electoral mechanism to foster
reconciliation between the two parties. "The fault lines are
complex and appear intractable," said Daschle, "but both
leaders have an obligation to put their country ahead of
their personal ambitions and animosities."


8. (SBU) The two most specific recommendations centered on
the caretaker government (CTG) and the CEC. Regarding the
AL's insistence that former Chief Justice KM Hassan not take
over as the chief caretaker advisor, the team disagreed,
saying that that while the opposition's complaints about
process were legitimate, past service in a political party
was not sufficient grounds to disqualify a candidate for the
position and that the credentials of a candidate should be
viewed in their entirety. They recommended, however, that
the additional advisors to support the chief advisor be
selected through a process of consultation with the major
parties.


9. (SBU) The team reserved its greatest concern for the CEC
and the electoral process. They said that they were
"alarmed" by the lack of confidence in the Election
Commission and specifically the CEC, and were frustrated by
how dismissive the CEC was of the complaints against the
Commission and himself. "In the absence of a strong,
corrective and urgent response, confidence in the Election
Commission will continue to deteriorate to the point that he
should not continue his duties," said Daschle. They also
called for urgent efforts to improve the voter list, ensure
minority and women access to the polls, and create mechanisms
to prevent electoral violence. In closing, Moore emphasized
that it was not too late to fix these problems, but the
Bangladeshis needed to act quickly.

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COMMENT
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10. (C) Both the ruling and opposition parties have reason to
be unhappy with NDI,s report, but on the core issue of
whether Justice Hassan,s BNP links years ago should
disqualify him for the post of chief caretaker advisor, the
AL received a stinging rebuke. NDI,s blunt but balanced
recommendations generated broad public comment and set the
bar high for other assessment teams to demonstrate comparable
insight and impact. Local media are dogging the European
Commission assessment team now in Dhaka in hope of similar
newsworthiness, but that team,s mandate is limited to
assessing and making private recommendations to the EU
External Affairs Commissioner regarding the election
monitoring climate in Bangladesh. END COMMENT
BUTENIS