JATIYA PARTY MP: NO DECISION HAS BEEN MADE ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L DHAKA 005051 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/26/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV BG SUBJECT: JATIYA PARTY MP: NO DECISION HAS BEEN MADE ON JOINING FOUR-PARTY COALITION Classified By: P/E Counselor D.C. McCullough, Reason(s): 1.4 (b) ¶1. (C) On August 10, Jatiya Party M. P. Ghulam Quader told poloff that President Ershad has only said he is prepared to join the four-party alliance, but no decision has been made whether to join or not. Quader discounted reports that he advocated joining Awami League or would split with Jatiya Party (JP) if Ershad joined the BNP/JI alliance. ¶2. (C) Quader said that neither of the two main parties has bettered the country, that Jatiya would serve the country better as an opposition party goading whatever party is in power to improve the nation. Quader admitted that most Jatiya Party MPs are concerned about keeping their seats, and that at the grass roots level BNP/JI members would be adverse to supporting a Jatiya Party candidate. He said that the Awami League is the party to beat in most JP constituencies, so a AL-JP coalition would win handily, but a JP/BNP/JI coalition may lose JP support due to the JI factor, giving the normally narrow JP win to the AL. ¶3. (C) Asked what motivates Ershad to consider joining the BNP/JI, Quader said that other than staying out of jail, Ershad hoped to gain the Presidency, which would be a "vindication" since he would be returned to his former title by the same people who took the title away. Quader discounted reports that the Awami League offered him ministerial posts to join their coalition. He added that as far he knew, no other JP MPs had been offered ministerial posts in a BNP/JI coalition and that Ershad was making these announcements by himself. Only now is Ershad asking his party for their views on joining a coalition, Quader said. GEORGE