ERSHAD NEARS ANNOUNCEMENT ON JOINING 4-PARTY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 004811

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM BG
SUBJECT: ERSHAD NEARS ANNOUNCEMENT ON JOINING 4-PARTY
ALLIANCE

REF: DHAKA 04413

Classified By: A/DCM Dundas McCullough; reason 1.4(d)


1. (C) SUMMARY. Speculation increased this week that former
President Ershad is poised to announce an alliance of his
Jatiya Party (JP) with the BNP-led Four-Party Alliance.
Ershad confirmed to us that a formal coalition was nearly
certain and that there are only a few issues left to resolve,
including the thorny issue of deciding which parliamentary
constituencies the different Alliance partners would contest
in the election. END SUMMARY

===============================
ERSHAD: BNP-JP DEAL "VERY NEAR"
===============================


2. (C) On July 27, former President Ershad met with BNP
Senior Joint Secretary Tarique Rahman and Home Affairs
Minister Lutfozzaman Babor at his residence in Dhaka.
According to press reports, Ershad agreed to join the
Four-Party Alliance. On August 1, Ershad confirmed to us that
he was "very near" to an agreement with the BNP. He said the
BNP had agreed to make him the country's president if they
won the next parliamentary elections. However, there are two
outstanding issues: how many constituencies the JP will get
on behalf of the Alliance, and whether the BDG would agree to
"drop" the outstanding corruption cases pending in the courts
against Ershad.


3. (C) Ershad told us that the Bangladeshi people are "fed
up with the two women" and are looking for something new.
However, the JP had no choice but to join one of the two main
coalitions since it does not have sufficient funds to run in
the elections alone. He said that in addition to his other
conditions, he wants to run in 50 constituencies throughout
the country, not just in his stronghold in the north. He said
that he believes the JP could win 40 seats in the elections
-- up from the 14 seats it currently holds.


4. (C) When asked when he would make an official
announcement about joining the Four-Party Alliance, Ershad
would only say "before the caretaker government takes over."
He said the main reason for not making it official now was
because it would take a long time to sort out the issue of
which constituencies the JP would get. He also said he wants
to see the court cases removed before he makes any
commitment. (Note: On July 31, Babar denied to us that he
discussed or made any commitments on Ershad's court cases,
which he claimed, probably wrongly, are in the hands of the
toothless Anti-Corruption Commission.)

================================
JAMAAT, AL REACT TO BNP-JP TALKS
================================


5. (C) In a recent conversation with us, Mohammad
Kamruzzaman, Senior Assistant Secretary General of Jamaat
Islami (JI),the BNP's junior coalition partner, downplayed
the importance of Ershad's public statements about joining
the Alliance. Kamruzzaman said that Ershad was "tricky" and
that his recent statements are a negotiating tactic designed
to put pressure on the Alliance members. He added that
Tarique Rahman was not authorized to make an offer to the JP
without consulting the other Alliance partners, and no final
decision would be taken without JI approval.


6. (C) Ershad told us that he was certain the JI would
eventually accept the JP as a coalition partner. He said he
told the JI leadership on July 31 that it was in their best
interest to ensure that the Four-Party Alliance stays in
power by working with the JP. If the Alliance were to lose
power and the AL took over, JI would be "banned." He also
said that JI was not in as strong a negotiating position as
the JP because it has a weaker base of support and the BNP
knew the JP has more to offer the Alliance than JI.


7. (C) At first, AL reaction to the BNP-JP talks was muted.
Several senior AL leaders, including General Secretary Abdul
Jalil and Presidium member Tofail Ahmed, expressed skepticism
that Ershad would decide to join the Alliance. However, on
July 30 Sheikh Hasina criticized PM Zia and Tarique for
meeting with Ershad, saying that Zia had once accused Ershad
of complicity in the murder of her husband, then-President
Ziaur Rahman. Ershad expressed anger over Hasina's comments,
and told us that she had "closed the door" to talk of JP-AL
cooperation.

=======================

DHAKA 00004811 002 OF 002


BNP-JP DISTRUST LINGERS
=======================


8. (C) Ershad acknowledged that he distrusted the Prime
Minister, but because she needs him for the elections, he is
skeptical she would betray him. "The BNP is hurting because
of electricity shortages, high food prices, corruption. Only
with the Jatiya Party can they win." He added that while he
was certain the BNP-led alliance would win if the JP
supported it, he was not sure that the AL could win even if
he threw the JP's support behind it instead.


9. (C) Howlader told us that the BNP was concerned that once
the JP announced it was joining the Alliance, it would prompt
an AL boycott of the elections. "Since Ershad joining with
the Four-Party Alliance almost guarantees defeat of the AL,
the AL will not be enthusiastic about participating in the
elections." He expressed concern that if the AL boycotts, it
could prompt the BNP to renege on its agreement with the JP
in the hope of replacing the AL with the JP as the main
opposition party.


10. (C) BNP leader Giasuddin Quader Chowdhury told us that
in a conversation he had on July 31 with the PM, she did not
sound enthusiastic about allying with the JP. "She is not
absolutely sure if Ershad will join her Alliance and stay in
the Alliance for the elections," he told us. "On the other
hand, she is afraid the AL may boycott the elections on some
pretext if Ershad's party stays with the Alliance to
participate in the elections."

=======
COMMENT
=======


11. (C) Talks between the BNP and JP have accelerated over
the past two weeks, and Ershad appears confident he will get
everything he wants in exchange for throwing his lot in with
the Alliance. On the BNP's side, bringing Ershad back on
board after his unceremonious departure from the Alliance in
2001 carries risks. Removing the court cases against Ershad
may prove beyond the ability of the BDG. If it can find a way
to dismiss the cases, it would only fuel AL accusations of
corruption. Most significantly, however, the battle within
the Alliance to decide which constituencies each party will
contest could seriously undermine Alliance unity and prompt
rogue candidacies. The BNP and JI had difficulty enough
sorting out who would run where in 2001; throwing the JP into
the mix could seriously undermine the cohesion of the
Alliance's nomination process.


12. (C) Ershad is exploiting the widespread perception that
the AL and BNP are running neck and neck, and that any party
which can "guarantee" at least 10 seats is a potential queen
maker. His top priority remains staying out of jail, which is
why he will not antagonize BNP so long as it is in power. At
the national level, Ershad is severely damaged goods,
especially after the soap opera divorce of his junior wife
last year, and for many Bangladeshis he epitomizes everything
- corruption, thuggery, and black money - that is wrong with
Bangladeshi politics. His elevation to the presidency would
be a travesty, but the BNP, like the AL, would pay almost any
price for power.
BUTENIS