ERSHAD NEARS ANNOUNCEMENT ON JOINING 4-PARTY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 004811 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM BG SUBJECT: ERSHAD NEARS ANNOUNCEMENT ON JOINING 4-PARTY ALLIANCE REF: DHAKA 04413 Classified By: A/DCM Dundas McCullough; reason 1.4(d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. Speculation increased this week that former President Ershad is poised to announce an alliance of his Jatiya Party (JP) with the BNP-led Four-Party Alliance. Ershad confirmed to us that a formal coalition was nearly certain and that there are only a few issues left to resolve, including the thorny issue of deciding which parliamentary constituencies the different Alliance partners would contest in the election. END SUMMARY =============================== ERSHAD: BNP-JP DEAL "VERY NEAR" =============================== ¶2. (C) On July 27, former President Ershad met with BNP Senior Joint Secretary Tarique Rahman and Home Affairs Minister Lutfozzaman Babor at his residence in Dhaka. According to press reports, Ershad agreed to join the Four-Party Alliance. On August 1, Ershad confirmed to us that he was "very near" to an agreement with the BNP. He said the BNP had agreed to make him the country's president if they won the next parliamentary elections. However, there are two outstanding issues: how many constituencies the JP will get on behalf of the Alliance, and whether the BDG would agree to "drop" the outstanding corruption cases pending in the courts against Ershad. ¶3. (C) Ershad told us that the Bangladeshi people are "fed up with the two women" and are looking for something new. However, the JP had no choice but to join one of the two main coalitions since it does not have sufficient funds to run in the elections alone. He said that in addition to his other conditions, he wants to run in 50 constituencies throughout the country, not just in his stronghold in the north. He said that he believes the JP could win 40 seats in the elections -- up from the 14 seats it currently holds. ¶4. (C) When asked when he would make an official announcement about joining the Four-Party Alliance, Ershad would only say "before the caretaker government takes over." He said the main reason for not making it official now was because it would take a long time to sort out the issue of which constituencies the JP would get. He also said he wants to see the court cases removed before he makes any commitment. (Note: On July 31, Babar denied to us that he discussed or made any commitments on Ershad's court cases, 
which he claimed, probably wrongly, are in the hands of the toothless Anti-Corruption Commission.) ================================ JAMAAT, AL REACT TO BNP-JP TALKS ================================ ¶5. (C) In a recent conversation with us, Mohammad Kamruzzaman, Senior Assistant Secretary General of Jamaat Islami (JI),the BNP's junior coalition partner, downplayed the importance of Ershad's public statements about joining the Alliance. Kamruzzaman said that Ershad was "tricky" and that his recent statements are a negotiating tactic designed to put pressure on the Alliance members. He added that Tarique Rahman was not authorized to make an offer to the JP without consulting the other Alliance partners, and no final decision would be taken without JI approval. ¶6. (C) Ershad told us that he was certain the JI would eventually accept the JP as a coalition partner. He said he told the JI leadership on July 31 that it was in their best interest to ensure that the Four-Party Alliance stays in power by working with the JP. If the Alliance were to lose power and the AL took over, JI would be "banned." He also said that JI was not in as strong a negotiating position as the JP because it has a weaker base of support and the BNP knew the JP has more to offer the Alliance than JI. ¶7. (C) At first, AL reaction to the BNP-JP talks was muted. Several senior AL leaders, including General Secretary Abdul Jalil and Presidium member Tofail Ahmed, expressed skepticism that Ershad would decide to join the Alliance. However, on July 30 Sheikh Hasina criticized PM Zia and Tarique for meeting with Ershad, saying that Zia had once accused Ershad of complicity in the murder of her husband, then-President Ziaur Rahman. Ershad expressed anger over Hasina's comments, and told us that she had "closed the door" to talk of JP-AL cooperation. ======================= DHAKA 00004811 002 OF 002 BNP-JP DISTRUST LINGERS ======================= ¶8. (C) Ershad acknowledged that he distrusted the Prime Minister, but because she needs him for the elections, he is skeptical she would betray him. "The BNP is hurting because of electricity shortages, high food prices, corruption. Only with the Jatiya Party can they win." He added that while he was certain the BNP-led alliance would win if the JP supported it, he was not sure that the AL could win even if he threw the JP's support behind it instead. ¶9. (C) Howlader told us that the BNP was concerned that once the JP announced it was joining the Alliance, it would prompt an AL boycott of the elections. "Since Ershad joining with the Four-Party Alliance almost guarantees defeat of the AL, the AL will not be enthusiastic about participating in the elections." He expressed concern that if the AL boycotts, it could prompt the BNP to renege on its agreement with the JP in the hope of replacing the AL with the JP as the main opposition party. ¶10. (C) BNP leader Giasuddin Quader Chowdhury told us that in a conversation he had on July 31 with the PM, she did not sound enthusiastic about allying with the JP. "She is not absolutely sure if Ershad will join her Alliance and stay in the Alliance for the elections," he told us. "On the other hand, she is afraid the AL may boycott the elections on some pretext if Ershad's party stays with the Alliance to participate in the elections." ======= COMMENT ======= ¶11. (C) Talks between the BNP and JP have accelerated over the past two weeks, and Ershad appears confident he will get everything he wants in exchange for throwing his lot in with the Alliance. On the BNP's side, bringing Ershad back on board after his unceremonious departure from the Alliance in 2001 carries risks. Removing the court cases against Ershad may prove beyond the ability of the BDG. If it can find a way to dismiss the cases, it would only fuel AL accusations of corruption. Most significantly, however, the battle within the Alliance to decide which constituencies each party will contest could seriously undermine Alliance unity and prompt rogue candidacies. The BNP and JI had difficulty enough sorting out who would run where in 2001; throwing the JP into the mix could seriously undermine the cohesion of the Alliance's nomination process. ¶12. (C) Ershad is exploiting the widespread perception that the AL and BNP are running neck and neck, and that any party which can "guarantee" at least 10 seats is a potential queen maker. His top priority remains staying out of jail, which is why he will not antagonize BNP so long as it is in power. At the national level, Ershad is severely damaged goods, especially after the soap opera divorce of his junior wife last year, and for many Bangladeshis he epitomizes everything - corruption, thuggery, and black money - that is wrong with Bangladeshi politics. His elevation to the presidency would be a travesty, but the BNP, like the AL, would pay almost any price for power. BUTENIS