BDG CONTEMPLATES POSSIBLE PRESIDENTIAL RESIGNATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 003725 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR SCA/PB; INR E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/21/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM BG SUBJECT: BDG CONTEMPLATES POSSIBLE PRESIDENTIAL RESIGNATION Classified By: Action Pol/Econ Counselor David Renz; Reason 1.4(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: The BDG is considering replacing ailing President Iajuddin Ahmed out of concern that his poor health will prevent him from running his office during the term of the caretaker government ahead of next January's parliamentary elections. PM Zia favors giving Ahmed some more time either to recover and stay in office or to offer to quit, before making a request for his resignation. A new President, if elected, will get a five-year term from the day he or she takes the oath of office. End Summary. ¶2. (C) At an informal meeting on June 19, PM Zia and two of her top policymakers reviewed the situation arising out of the failing health of President Ahmed and decided to look for options to replace him in the likely case of his inability to function as President, particularly during the 90-day tenure of the non-party caretaker government scheduled to take over in late October. (Note: Although a ceremonial figurehead, the President controls the defense forces and assumes legislative authority and control over the government during the caretaker regime. End Note) The President is elected by Parliament; hence, BDG leaders generally prefer an early decision on the issue as the term of the current Parliament expires on October 28. ¶3. (C) The PM's Parliamentary Affairs Advisor, Salahuddin Quader ("SQ") Chowdhury, told Pol FSN that the PM consulted him and Health and Family Welfare Minister Dr. Khandaker Mosharraf Hossain on how to deal with the situation arising out of the President's illness. "The PM seemed hesitant about asking for replacing President Ahmed and rather wanted us, and particularly Dr. Hossain, to make suggestions to this end," Chowdhury said, adding that it was Hossain who had recommended Ahmed, his former colleague at Dhaka University, to be nominated President in 2002. Chowdhury quoted Hossain to have told the PM that he did not see any option other than to elect a new President as Ahmed was too ill to be able to run the presidency during the likely political turbulence in the run-up to the elections slated for January 2007. PM Zia dismissed Acting President Zamiruddin Sircar as the possible replacement for Ahmed and asked for other suitable candidates. ¶4. (C) On his return to Dhaka on June 20 after undergoing heart by-pass surgery at Mount Elizabeth Hospital in Singapore, Ahmed went straight to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) of the Combined Military Hospital (CMH) and is staying there. Chowdhury said the President's wife and son insisted he return to Bangabhaban, his official residence, instead of the CMH to avoid entreaties to quit the presidency because of his poor health. The President, however, listened to his doctors' advice. The Director General of the Army Medical Corps also questioned whether an ICU could be set up at Bangbhaban, Chowdury said, adding that besides the heart, the President's kidneys, liver, and prostrate are malfunctioning. ¶5. (C) Giving a similar account, the President's Press Secretary Mokhlesur Rahman Chowdhury said the President does SIPDIS not seem to have a problem resigning, but his family members are opposed to it. He said the President will enjoy the status of a cabinet minister and continue to get some perks and privileges even after his resignation, but the members of his family are not willing to give up the pomp and splendor of their life at Bangabhaban. He acknowledged discussion among top policymakers about replacing the President and said electing a new president is beneficial to the ruling party as the new president will be in office for five years from the day he or she takes the oath of office regardless of which parties come to power through the next parliament elections. ¶6. (U) The 75-year old Ahmed was admitted to the CMH on May 23, a day after PM Zia saw him at Bangabhaban to brief him on her recent foreign trips. Opposition leader Hasina publicly speculated that "Ahmed was made to fall sick" by Zia as she herself now wanted to become the President. On May 24, an air ambulance flew Ahmed to Singapore where he was found to have three blockages in his arteries. He underwent surgery on May ¶26. According to press reports, doctors diagnosed Ahmed as a cardiac patient long ago and had advised him to go for care abroad. ¶7. (U) Comment: Given the acrimony between the political camps, a Presidential resignation would likely give rise to a spate of controversies and accusations right before the four-party coalition leaves office. This will revive the DHAKA 00003725 002 OF 002 controversy over Professor Badruddoza Chowdhury's ouster from the presidency in June 2002. The opposition will ask if Ahmed's departure from Bangabhaban has been designed to give the BNP an opportunity to install its chosen person to be in Bangabhaban for another five-year term even if the opposition wins the next parliament election. End comment. BUTENIS