YOUR VISIT TO BANGLADESH

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 000280 SIPDIS FOR SA A/S ROCCA E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/20/2016 TAGS: PREL PTER KISL KDEM BG BG BGD SUBJECT: YOUR VISIT TO BANGLADESH Classified By: A/DCM D.C. McCullough, reasons para 1.4 b, d. ¶1. (S) Everything and nothing has changed in Bangladesh since your last visit in May 2005. JMB's stunning onslaught of violence finally forced the BDG to acknowledge that terrorism and extremism exist in Bangladesh, but domestic politics remain as polarized and painful as ever. Your BNP and MFA interlocutors will be upbeat about the elections and the anti-JMB campaign, while the Awami League will insist that the sky is falling down. There will be intense media scrutiny of your visit because of its timing, coinciding with the start of the Awami League's potentially final big program of national agitation before the election, and because the BDG and the AL will be furiously spinning their interactions with you to prove USG sympathy for their position. Extremism -------------- ¶2. (S) The JMB came close to traumatizing the country in early December. While its violence claimed only 32 lives over a span of several months in a country of 144 million people, the randomness and nationwide scope of the attacks scared many normally complacent Bangladeshis into wondering if they might be next. The BNP and JI started to show signs of strain as even some, mostly dissident, elements of BNP criticized BDG handling of the crisis and questioned the utility of the BNP-JI coalition. Predictably, as they do after any incident of high-profile violence, BNP and AL leaders blamed each other. But by the time the Id al-Kabir holidays arrived in January, the mood had shifted, thanks to the halt in violence following the major arrests and weapons recoveries in December. Unless and until the violence resumes, the BNP will continue to claim it has fought and won the good fight against JMB. ¶3. (S) BNP leaders will likely tell you: -- JMB is on the run, thanks to her and the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB). -- It was a bad situation, but the total rejection of JMB violence by civil society, including Muslim clerics and Islamic scholars, underscores that Bangladesh is a tolerant, moderate country with no stomach for extremism. -- In fact, Islam is a religion of peace, so no Muslim could accept JMB's actions. -- Since terrorism and Islam are by definition mutually exclusive, we should look at who benefited from JMB's violence. The answer is those (read India and the AL) who seek to defame and destabilize the country. -- The BDG has proven its commitment to counter-terrorism and should be rewarded by the USG. ¶4. (S) Zia will agree with every point on why extremism must be confronted, and say it is for these reasons that she is determined to bring JMB to book. If we ask the BDG to shut down organizations that support terrorism, she will promise to do so, just as soon as (someone else) demonstrates their guilt. Zia takes the same tack when pressed to hold BNP leaders accountable for corruption or their ties to Bangla Bhai. ¶5. (S) Sheikh Hasina, on the other hand, says that BNP and JI instigated the violence to distract people from the government's unpopularity and the 14-party opposition alliance's anti-government manifesto. As proof, she cites the four ministers widely linked to Bangla Bhai. Hasina does not really believe that either BNP or JI is behind the attacks, insiders tell us, but she is determined to stick to the position that the JI is responsible for all BDG misdeeds. The AL, echoing points made here by the Indian High Commission, says JMB proved that they were "right" about the Islamist threat to Bangladesh, and hopes the USG will now take the issue seriously. (Note: In fact, the AL warned about the Talibanization of Bangladeshi society as part of an Islamist-BNP bid to destroy "secular" forces, not an isolated terrorist campaign.) Elections -------------- ¶6. (S) Bangladesh's zero-sum political culture makes any election a winner-take-all affair, but the 2007 election is also make or break for the two major parties. For the BNP, victory shatters the strong anti-incumbency bias of Bangladesh, and South Asia, that has denied any Bangladeshi administration a second term, and it positions Tariq to succeed his mother as PM in the next five years. For the AL, defeat or boycott implies ten years out of power, a bitter pill for a party that sees itself as Bangladesh's rightful ruler and that needs the lure of power and money to maintain party discipline. With both the AL and BNP wedded or at least resigned to the politics of black money and thugs (a legacy of the perversion of democratic practices during General Ershad's rule),there is every reason to think the next election will be extremely turbulent. The BNP's stacking of the Election Commission is the latest example that it can act shamelessly and on the margins of the law to advance its political interest. Polls suggest that support for AL and BNP is neck and neck, with a large undecided bloc; however, there is strong confidence in the integrity of the electoral system, which suggests that the AL might have a hard time justifying a boycott. ¶7. (S) Your BNP/MFA interlocutors will say: -- BNP is committed to a free and fair electoral process because, as the stronger party, it wants the will of the people accurately reflected. The re-election of the AL mayor in Chittagong last year, and the upset win of an independent Hindu in a JI safe seat, shows the impartiality of the system. -- The real problem is that the opposition does not practice what it preaches on democracy. It boycotts parliament and spurns offers of inter-party dialogue in favor of a strategy of confrontation. The USG should urge the AL to change course. -- The caretaker regime system works and doesn't need to be changed. ¶8. (S) The Awami League will reiterate that BDG moves to fix the election leave it with no alternative to boycotts and hartals. The BDG's choice of two BNP stooges to be new election commissioners, and the way they rushed through the swearing-in ceremony to pre-empt opposition, underscores BNP bad faith. (Note: It is true that the Chief Election Commissioner and the new commissioners have acted in a pro-BNP manner.) The USG, the AL says, should support democracy by supporting the opposition's demands for caretaker regime and electoral changes, including political party consensus for key appointments. Watch Out For -------------- ¶9. (C) -- RAB has proven itself against JMB, but needs training and equipment from the USG. -- We supported you at the WTO in Hongkong and are now under fire for "selling out" our garment industry. You should support the Trade Act to give our garments duty-free access to the U.S. market. -- Bangladesh deserves to participate in the Millennium Challenge Account. -- (If we ask for BDG support on Iran) We have to respect Bangladeshi opinion that sees a double standard between your contrasting approaches to the nuclear programs of Iran and Israel. CHAMMAS