PRE ELECTION JOCKEYING CONTINUES

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 002681 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KISL BG SUBJECT: PRE ELECTION JOCKEYING CONTINUES ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The Election Commission issued a voter list based on a fresh voter canvas, which showed a 22 percent increase over previous election lists. AL SYG Jalil responded to BNP SYG Bhuiyan to ask for mutual concessions in creating an acceptable dialogue committee to discuss AL demands for electoral reforms. Splinter Islamic party breaks from BNP led four-party alliance to create new Islamic party. End summary. ELECTION COMMISSION ISSUES NEW VOTER LIST ========================================= ¶2. (SBU) On May 3, the Election Commission (EC) issued its "draft" list of 91.3 million voters. Media criticized this as an unusually large over the 2001 voter list saying that such an increase would only be possible if there were no deaths and no one was excluded from the count US AID funded National Democratic Institute (NDI) statisticians told poloff that based on the 2001 census, after adjusting for any undercount, the maximum number eligible age population could only be a projected 77.0 million. They said that without conducting a statistically valid sampling, it's not possible to know the basis for the EC's list but speculated that the difference may be double counts and/or fictitious names. ¶3. (SBU) BNP appointed Election Commissioner Mohamed Zakaria told embassy that the year 2000 voter list prepared by the AL government then in power showed a 33 percent increase in voters from the 1995 list. He said that the current list shows an increase of only 22 percent, charged that the allegations of political bias are wholly partisan based, and that the EC had doubts about any comparison using census data. WHY A NEW VOTERS LIST ANYWAY? ============================= ¶4. (SBU) After the EC declared it would create an entirely new list, the High Court on January 4 ruled that the EC should update the list and not make a new list. The EC appealed, and the Supreme Court deferred a decision several times, with the latest deferral set for May 14. Election Commissioner Zakaria insisted to poloff that the law stipulates that a new list must be created for each election. Awami League (AL) appointed and recently retired Election Commission Munsef Ali disagreed in an interview with poloff. Ali said the law only provides for updating or revising the voter list. He told poloff he read the law to Zakaria who agreed that the list could only be updated. However the next day, Ali said, Zakaria said the EC's decision was to create a new list. Ali said that Zakaria explained that although making a new list is inconsistent with the law, making a new list has been done in the past and we should continue the practice, even if it's wrong. ¶5. (SBU) Asked if there was enough time to correct any problems with a possible overcount, Zakaria blamed the High Court's decisions for any potential delays. He told poloff that the hand written "draft" list would be open for inspection at the 503 sub-district election offices as well as at the 83 election districts. May 22 would be the last day for people to file complaints or objections and officials have until June 25 to revise the list. Then the list will be made typed, computerized and would be available three months later. Zakaria said that although the typed lists would be available in electronic format, they would be organized only by locality. When asked about how the EC would solve the problem of double counting, when the same person migrates from one area to another, and is included on both lists, Zakaria acknowledged there would be no central data base, and it's the law that prevents them from having one. ¶6. (SBU) AL Presidium member Muhuiddin Khan Alamgir told poloff that the AL rejected the voter list outright. "We don't think anyone can accept a voter list that exceeds our historic population growth." Alamgir criticized the limited distribution, saying that the voter lists need to be distributed to the 4,500 rural unions, which is one step lower that the sub-election districts. Only then can the local people see if their names are excluded or not. EFFORTS TO START ELECTION REFORM DIALOGUE CONTINUES ============================================= ====== ¶7. (SBU) On May 9, media reported that AL's Secretary General Abdul Jalil replied in a letter to BNP's Secretary General DHAKA 00002681 002 OF 002 Abdul Mannan Bhuiyan suggesting both sides might offer concessions. At issue is the inclusion of Jamaat Islami on a proposed dialogue committee to discuss AL and its 14 party alliance demands for electoral and caretaker government reforms. Asked about JI's exclusion, Bhuiyan said that since the BNP is already in an alliance with JI, it is difficult to exclude them. Jamaat Islami's Senior Assistant Secretary General Mohamed Kamruzzaman told poloff that JI's position is that there can be no dialogue committee without JI and he has BNP's assurances on that. AL Whip Farouk Khan discounted AL's opposition to Jamaat Islami, saying that BNP's nominated committee is not sufficiently high ranking; the BNP delegation does not include Secretary General Bhuiyan while AL's committee has AL Secretary General Jalil. SPLINTER IOJ GROUP QUITS FOUR-PARTY ALLIANCE ========================================= ¶8. (SBU) On May 6, the smallest faction of the Islami Oikiya Jote (IOJ) announced they would quit the four-party alliance, citing misrule and corruption, and would form their a new party, the Bangladesh Islami Oikiya Jote (BIOJ) led by Misabahur Rahman. Media reported that BIOJ members would support the AL led 14-party alliance's demands, and had "positive" discussions with the Sheikh Hasina. IOJ is composed of five Islamic based faction with the largest faction having three MPs under Maulana Fazlul Haque Amini and another faction composed of MP Azizul Haque. CHAMMAS