EAST AFRICAN FEDERATION: FAST-TRACK OR EMPTY TALK?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAR ES SALAAM 000731 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/E B YODER, C PELT, AF/EPS FOR T HASTINGS, AND AF/RSA FOR J NAY LONDON, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS USTR FOR W JACKSON E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/26/2011 TAGS: ENRG ECON ETRD PGOV TZ SUBJECT: EAST AFRICAN FEDERATION: FAST-TRACK OR EMPTY TALK? Classified By: Classified by Mary Johnson, Economic Counselor for reaso n 1.4(d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. Economic convergence in the East African Community (EAC) in on track, with a Customs Union expected to be fully functional by 2010. To further strengthen the region's economic ties, the EAC Secretariat also has hopes to undertake major infrastructure projects in areas such as energy and roads. While progress on economic harmonization is clear, political integration remains a more delicate and challenging subject for the EAC. Despite recent rhetoric from various East African leaders about "fast-tracking" an East African Federation (EAF),political integration is not likely to move forward quickly in the near term. Given deteriorating democratic systems in both Kenya and Uganda, and the question of Rwanda and Burundi's accession to the EAC, the Government of Tanzania (GOT) is cautious on political federation. Even staff at the EAC Secretariat are wary of an EAF, preferring cooperation in the cultural and economic domains prior to coping with the enormous, if not premature, challenges of political federation. END SUMMARY. Economic Integration: Full Speed Ahead -------------- ¶3. (U) During a meeting with the Deputy Chief of Mission (DCM) on April 25, Dr. Nyamajeje Weggoro, Head Economist for Sectoral Policies and Programmes at the EAC, confirmed that the EAC is on track to becoming an integrated Customs Union by 2010. He explained that the protocol for the Customs Union was signed (and became operational) in January 2006. "Within four years, we expect the EAC to have established a fully functioning Customs Union." Additional changes are in the pipeline to further free the flow of people, goods and services across borders, including the introduction of an internationally accepted East African passport which would be able to replace the national passport. Weggoro also made reference to moving toward a common currency which all three countries had attempted 10 years ago. ¶4. (U) In addition to removing trade barriers, the EAC has also developed "Mega-Plans" for increasing East Africa's power and road connections. At the upcoming United Nations 14th Commission on Sustainable Development, the EAC will present its Master Power Plan to connect the national grids of Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda. Weggoro stated that part of the plan was to run a gas pipeline from Songo Songo to Tanga to Mombassa and then over to Western Uganda (in parallel to an oil pipeline already operating between Kenya and Uganda). Despite Tanzania's current power problems, Weggoro said that Tanzania has more energy resources than the other two countries and once the plan is operational, Kenya would be a net importer of electricity from Uganda and Tanzania. By presenting their Master Power Plan at the UN Conference, the EAC aims to involve the international community in implementing such regional infrastructure projects. Political Federation: A Pipe Dream? -------------- ¶5. (C) While plans are big and hopes are high for East Africa's economic integration, political federation appears a more complicated and distant prospect. In 2004, East Africa's leaders established a Presidential Committee on Fast Tracking East African Federation, and Kenya's Attorney General, Amos Wako, who now heads the Committee, has set 2010 as an ideal date to start an East African Federation. A special report in The Citizen (April 17),however, revealed that EAC Secretariat staff and even members of the Committee have raised doubts about such a deadline. According to The Citizen, Committee members and other government officials have anonymously characterized the time table for federation as everything from "just hot air, to empty talk, to utter rubbish." Off-the-record, Weggoro underscored this news report and confided, "Fast-tracking can mean 30-40 years down the road!" Weggoro stressed that focusing on political federation would frustrate rather than enhance EAC cooperation as member countries got bogged down trying to resolve difficult political issues rather than building economic and cultural bonds. ¶6. (C) The differing levels of democracy in the three countries is one of the key challenges in terms of forging DAR ES SAL 00000731 002 OF 002 any time of East African political entity. Weggoro noted, again off-the-record, that the EAC Secretariat had been disappointed by political developments in the region. He said that advice from the EAC Secretariat on how to best achieve acceptable democratic systems has not been kindly received, especially by Uganda. "We have been let down by Kenya's political decay and Uganda's worrisome move toward totalitarianism," Weggoro said. He added that at one time, the EAC had looked toward Museveni as a potential representative for an East African Federation; someone who could have stepped down from power in Uganda and assumed a leadership role for the EAC. ¶7. (C) While the reality of political union may be distant, the EAC does have a vague notion of the model an East African Federation might follow. "Right now we envision a small government at the top with a President and maybe a Prime Minister," Weggoro said. Under such an arrangement the participating states might resemble Zanzibar in that each would have its own parliament, ministries, and revenue collection system, while the central government would handle foreign relations. Additional details of the vision will be disclosed when the President's Committee on Fast Tracking reports its findings and road map for political integration to the Heads of State in November 2006. Rwanda and Burundi Eye the EAC -------------- ¶8. (C) Another challenging issue for political federation is that both Rwanda and Burundi are seeking membership in the EAC. Weggoro said that Rwanda and Burundi will be advised to follow an accession model: observer status (2-5 years), associate membership and then onto status as a full member. The timeline for Rwanda and Burundi's accession to the EAC is still not clear and Weggoro did not suggest that accession was a foregone conclusion. Weggoro did note that the original concept for political federation had been a small union government with Heads of State rotating from Uganda, Tanzania and Kenya. "The arrangement would probably be different if Rwanda and Burundi entered the picture," Weggoro told the DCM, implying that rotation might not be the best option in the even that Rwanda and Burundi join the EAC. Comment: First Things First: Getting the Economics Right -------------- -------------- ¶9. (C) Weggoro's off-the record comments underscored press reports which have questioned both the probability and feasibility of "fast-tracking" an East African Federation. One of the longest serving economists for the EAC, Weggoro is a champion of increasing EAC integration. His approach, however, emphasizes the region's strong cultural and economic ties before tackling the many challenges which would emerge from political integration. "What is driving the EAC forward is the belief that we are one country!" Weggoro exclaimed, citing examples of Tanzanian and Kenyan brothers separated by superficial borders. Weggoro moderated his exclamations about the EAC as one country with his conviction to get the sequencing of integration right: "Start with economic convergence and cultural ties; this will force political change over time." ¶10. (C) EAC caution on the political front seems wise, especially given the relative states of democracy in Tanzania, Kenya and Uganda. Most other regional integration arrangements, such as in Europe, Latin America and elsewhere, have started with private sector and economic harmonization before diving into political federation. Strengthening East Africa's economic and cultural foundation is most likely the fastest track the EAC can pursue toward not only a common market, but also, toward any viable political integration in the future. End Comment. RETZER