TANZANIA'S 2006 MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS SLIGHTLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L DAR ES SALAAM 000551 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/E B YODER AND C PELT, AF/EPS T HASTINGS TREASURY FOR L KOHLER MCC FOR L BLACK AND G BREVNOV E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/23/2011 TAGS: EAGR ECON EG ENRG TZ SUBJECT: TANZANIA'S 2006 MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS SLIGHTLY REVISED REF: A. DAR ES SALAAM 0412 ¶B. DAR ES SALAAM 0312 ¶C. DAR ES SALAAM 0300 Classified By: Classified by Mary B. Johnson for reason 1.4 (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. International financial institutions have recently revised Tanzania's 2006 macroeconomic forecasts as a result of the drought affecting the agriculture and energy sectors. While the Government of Tanzania (GOT) and development organizations try to assess the extent of economic loss, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reduced GDP estimates by about 1 to 1.5 percent and increased inflation forecasts by one percentage point. The most recent IMF review of Tanzania's progress under the Poverty Reduction Growth Facility (PRGF) revealed a rising budget deficit and a surprising increase in interest rates on Treasury Bills. Despite revised estimates and one or two question marks in the IMF review, Tanzania's overall macro-economic picture remains strong and the economy appears resilient in the face of the ongoing food and power shortages. The resilience of President Kikwete's popularity, however, is also going to put to the test. While Tanzania's economy will most likely continue to grow at a healthy rate, external shocks have certainly complicated key political aims of the new administration including, attaining the growth targets needed to significantly reduce poverty (8 to 10 percent),creating one million jobs by 2010, and satisfying the enormous expectations associated with Kikwete's overwhelming popularity. END SUMMARY. Drought Slows Economic Growth -------------- ¶2. (U) Due to insufficient rainfall in 2005 and early 2006 and the associated power shortage (Refs B,C) the World Bank and the IMF have predicted a loss in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of between 1 to 1.5 percent in 2006. Lelde Schmitz, Country Director of IMF, said the IMF had predicted GDP growth of 7.2 percent for calendar year 2006; now, the IMF forecasts growth of about 5.8 percent. "We have revised the figures downward, but the extent of GDP loss is really anybody's guess," Schmitz told Econoff on March 13. ¶3. (C) Successive years of drought, and the failure of short rains from October to December 2005, will undoubtedly have a negative impact on the agriculture sector which accounts for about 46 percent of Tanzania's GDP. Small farmers will be especially hard hit since they depend heavily on rains and lack the irrigation systems of larger, more sophisticated estates. In particular, the lack of short rains will impact coffee and cotton harvests in 2006. According to the Economic Intelligence Unit (EUI)'s 2006 Country Report, exports account for about 29 percent of Tanzania's GDP. After gold, cotton and coffee are Tanzania's second and third largest exports respectively. While there are few comprehensive assessments of the drought's impact on cotton yields, Gervis Kavishe, Director of Cargill Cotton in Shinyanga, told Econoff on March 28 that the Tanzania Marketing Crop Board expects the cotton crop will be half the size of last year's yield which was 700,000 bales of cotton. Steven Fondriest, post's USAID agricultural officer, noted that coffee harvest predictions suggest production will fall by about 25 percent in drought stricken areas, such as Kilimanjaro. Without the expected rains in late 2005, many coffee plants never flowered, thus damaging the 2006 harvests. ¶4. (C) The ongoing power rationing (from February 4 to date) has also been an important factor behind lowering growth forecasts. The rising cost of electricity will naturally impact the service and manufacturing industries which account for 34 percent and 8.8 percent of Tanzania's GDP respectively. "Much will depend on the long rains," explained S. Magonya, Director of External Affairs at the Ministry of Finance. "A similar power crisis transpired in 1999 and again in 2003. However, once the long rains start, people become hopeful, the private sector returns to 'business as usual' and the country tends to forget about the more fundamental problems in the energy sector." Beginning the second week of March, the long rains have begun in many parts of the country; but near the key hydro-power plant, Mtera Dam, water levels continue to drop and threaten a collapse of that power source altogether. Predictions from the Ministry of Energy are that power rationing will continue at least through June 2006. Currently, power is being rationed for about eight hours per day. ¶5. (SBU) In many respects, the shocks culminating in early 2006 are reminiscent of those in 2003. The failure of the short and long rains in 2003 meant more than 2 million people were declared at risk of food insecurity and the GOT, like in January 2006, appealed for food aid. Power rationing was also prevalent in 2003 as a result of insufficient rainfall. Nevertheless, in 2003 Tanzania's economy continued to grow at a rate of 5.5 percent, demonstrating increasing resilience to external shocks. Over the past several years, Tanzania's economic growth has been broad-based ranging from mining to manufacturing to tourism and, as Judy O'Connor, Country Director of the World Bank, noted, "such breadth is vital to sustaining long-term economic growth." Food Prices Push Up Inflation -------------- ¶6. (U) The food shortage in Tanzania, and the East African region at large, has increased food prices considerably, putting significant pressure on Tanzania's inflation rate. With food accounting for more than half of the Tanzania's consumer price index (CPI),IMF has revised its 2006 inflation forecast from five to six percent. The Economic Intelligence Unit's 2006 Country Report forecasted a 5 percent inflation rate for 2006; however, the Bank of Tanzania has already published figures showing a marked upward trend in the inflation rate over the past several months -- from 4.5 percent in September 2005 to 5.0 percent in December 2005 to 5.4 percent inflation in January 2006. ¶7. (U) Ketan Patel, Managing Director of Export Trading Company (the biggest importer/exporter of maize in Tanzania), told Econoff March 16 that Tanzania's food shortage equates to a problem of affordability. Over the past several months, food prices have shot up, with staple products such as maize most expensive in remote, rural areas of the country where poverty is the most severe. In addition to rising food costs, higher fuel prices are also increasing inflationary pressure. With widespread, prolonged power rationing, power consumers have turned to more costly, diesel generators. IMF's Schmitz noted that the rise in fuel prices had been "primarily passed through to TANESCO," meaning that TANESCO has been absorbing most of the costs associated with the fuel price hikes. Schmitz added that consumer prices had not been adjusted to reflect higher oil prices since January 2005. Schmitz guessed that other prices, such as hotel rates, manufactured products etc., had also not yet been adjusted to reflect higher costs associated0w`tx( J^%Q #|~ZS(z?*penditures in 2005, growing by approximately 16 percent from 2004 to 2005. In the first three quarters of 2004, expenditures were about Tsh 681 billion (approx. USD 681 million) compared with Tsh 793 billion (USD 790 million) in the first three quarters of ¶2005. Concerns about increased government spending and the GOT's budget deficit vary with Tanzania's donor community. Judy O'Connor, the World Bank's Country Director, told Econoff on March 13 that the increased spending was in-line with higher donor funding and directed toward social areas such as health and education, and also roads. The EIU's 2006 report similarly explains the ratcheting up of expenditures as a result of rising donor support and expenditures targeting poverty reduction programs. ¶9. (C) Lelde Schmitz of IMF, expressed a slightly different view, noting that "an overall injection of government spending into the economy can generate a lot of M3 which can lead to a crowding out effect for private sector investments." (Note: M3 is a measure of aggregate money supply including less liquid assets). She emphasized the critical factor would be whether or not these expenditures were efficient, targeting capital investments with a sufficient rate of return to generate long-term, sustainable economic growth. Increase in T-Bill Rates a "Surprise" -------------- ¶10. (C) Another recent development highlighted by the IMF's recent review was a marked increase in interest rates on Treasury Bills (T-bills) from July - September 2005. Schmitz said that the marked increase was a "real surprise." According to figures from both the BOT and EIU, the interest rate on T-bills jumped from 8 percent in the second quarter to 11.5 percent in the third quarter of 2005. Schmitz noted that for the T-bill rates to increase either the risk of the projects must increase or the expected rate of return on investment has increased. "Neither of these explanations seems to apply to Tanzania's situation," Schmitz told Econoff. Schmitz said that she believed the increase in interest rates on T-bills reflected collusion or profiteering by a few big banks and added that, if true, "such practice is very worrisome." Comment -------------- ¶11. (C) Among the donor community and the GOT alike, Tanzania's strong record of macro-economic management has become a well-known mantra. After all, as Alastair Moon, Senior Economist at the World Bank, pointed out, "Tanzania emerged from an election year with its key macro-economic indicators in-tact." However, after hearing that oft recited mantra regarding Tanzania's sound macro-economic record, one inevitably is reminded that inroads against poverty remain minimal despite healthy growth rates. With 80 percent of Tanzanians depending on agriculture for their livelihood, the lack of rains, poor harvests, and higher (if not unaffordable) food prices, only complicate the translation of recent growth to micro-level gains. Despite a few percentage points here and there, Tanzania's macro-economic picture will emerge relatively unscathed from this year's drought. However, achieving the growth rates needed to reduce poverty (estimated between 8-10 percent by the World Bank),and creating President Kikwete's one million jobs by 2010 will prove far more challenging. End Comment. RETZER