TANZANIA'S NEW ENERGY MINISTER TO THE RESCUE?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAR ES SALAAM 001776 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT AF/E FOR B YODER PLEASE PASS TO G BREVNOV AT MCC E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/01/2011 TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID ECON EIND TZ SUBJECT: TANZANIA'S NEW ENERGY MINISTER TO THE RESCUE? REF: A. A) DAR ES SALAAM 01740 ¶B. B) DAR ES SALAAM 01145 Classified By: Michael L. Retzer, Chief of Mission, for reason 1.4(d). ¶1. (U) SUMMARY. The new Minister of Energy and Minerals, Nazir Karamagi, promised a more strategic, private sector approach to the energy sector when he met with Ambassador Retzer and Deborah Malac, Deputy Office Director for East Africa, on October 26. In the immediate-term, to prevent complete blackout in the Lake Zone (near Lake Victoria), Karamagi said that the Government of Tanzania (GOT) was airlifting a 40 Megawatt generator to Mwanza within 20 days. In the longer term, he explained his focus would be on large-scale power projects, efficiency of transmission, and reduction of subsidies. Karamagi repeated verbatim the Ambassador's advice to President Kikwete just days earlier - i.e. that the GOT should pursue future contracts with principals not middlemen (Ref A). Noting that the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) had increasing reservations about investing in the energy sector, the Ambassador encouraged Karamagi to engage with the MCC team during its next visit to Tanzania in mid-November. While stressing that there were no "quick fixes," Karamagi said within a year, he was optimistic on progress to ensure the power sector's sustainability. END SUMMARY. New Minister Brings Private Sector Perspective to Energy -------------- -------------- ¶2. (U) The Ambassador congratulated Minister Nazir Karamagi on his new assignment as Minister of Energy and Minerals, noting the confidence President Kikwete must have in him to take over this challenging portfolio. (Note: On October 15, Preside Kikwete shifted Karamagi to this new position after 10 months as Minister of Industry and Trade). Karamagi said he believed that President Kikwete appointed him because of his background in the private sector. "Coming from the private sector," he said, "I know how businesses feel without access to power and will work to streamline and manage the sector more efficiently." Short Term Plan: Stabilize Grid -------------- ¶3. (U) Outlining the GOT's short-term plan, Karamagi said that the immediate need was to stabilize the national grid. He explained that to prevent the Lake Zone from experiencing a complete blackout, the government-owned Tanzania Electricity Supply Company (Tanesco) had signed an emergency contract with Alstom (a U.S.based company) on or around October 16 to rent a 40 MW generator for Mwanza that will be delivered within three weeks. According to the local press, the total amount of the Alstom contract is USD 134 million including air freight and fuel costs for a twelve month time period. Long Term Plan: Big, Strategic Projects -------------- ¶4. (U) Minister Karamagi underscored his understanding that there were "no quick fixes" to the current crisis and stressed that the GOT needed to approach the power sector more strategically. To prevent dependence of certain regions on one power source, Karamagi said that he would pursue large-scale, power generation projects carefully placed in different regions of the country. He also intends to focus on improving transmission which currently results in losses of up to 26 percent. Ambassador Retzer highlighted the contribution that small power producers could also make to increasing power supply, citing examples in the U.S. of private producers selling wind and solar power directly to the national grid. The Ambassador emphasized that there was room for small producers and that the government should encourage such entrepreneurship in the energy sector. Setting Sustainable Rates: Killing the Cow Or Milking it? -------------- -------------- ¶5. (U) On the subject of setting sustainable rates, Minister Karamagi indicated that the GOT was willing to raise power tariffs to reduce, and hopefully eliminate, government subsidies to the sector. He emphasized, however, the GOT's view that before raising rates, there had to be improvements in either the quantity or quality of power supply. Karamagi told the Ambassador, "In terms of taxing the business community, we have to be careful. We don't want to kill the cow which is giving us milk." ¶6. (U) The Ambassador explained that for the business DAR ES SAL 00001776 002 OF 002 community, reliability was the critical factor. He stressed that the inability to plan ahead and the cost of damaged equipment often proves more expensive to the private sector than hikes in the electricity tariffs. Minister Karamagi nodded and noted that the GOT would have to carefully manage the approach to the private sector, which he admitted sometimes exaggerated the impact of tariff hikes to increase profit margins. Retrospective on Richmond: No More Middlemen -------------- ¶7. (C) Commenting on the GOT's contract with Richmond Development Company (Ref A and B),Karamagi said that Richmond managed to secure a good contract despite its lack of credentials. He emphasized that while Richmond may lack capacity, the company still has time within its contract to deliver. In Karamagi's view, taking Richmond to court now, "could actually make the company rich!" He said the GOT's hope was for the contract to run out and for Richmond to simply walk away. "In the future," Karamagi told the Ambassador, "we need to deal only with principals and not brokers." The Ambassador agreed wholeheartedly and explained that this was exactly what he had told President Kikwete earlier in the week (Ref A). Minerals: Digging for Win-Win Deals -------------- ¶8. (U) Turning to the other half of Minister Karamagi's portfolio, the Ambassador inquired about the GOT's progress reviewing mining contracts. Karamagi replied Tanzania had aggressively tried to attract foreign direct investment in the early 1990s based on the desire to get rid of its stigma as a socialist country. Under President Kikwete's leadership, the GOT is revisiting some of these contracts. Karamagi emphasized, however, that Tanzania did not want to be viewed as a country where the validity of contracts were questioned from one administration to the next. "We are not intending to twist arms here but we are seeking gentlemen's agreements," he said. The Ambassador noted that win-win deals or "gentlemen's agreements" were possible and advised that the GOT carefully consult public records to determine the profitability of these mining companies. MCC: To Invest or Not to Invest? -------------- ¶9. (C) The Ambassador informed Minister Karamagi that the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) had reservations about investing in Tanzania's energy sector. "Although the GOT has proposed USD 130 million worth of energy projects, MCC Washington will not be able to invest without a recovery plan and a long-term, strategic plan for the sector's sustainability," the Ambassador explained. Karamagi agreed to meet with the MCC Country Team during the next visit to Tanzania; he noted his job, in the short-term, will be to reassure both the business community and the international donor community that the GOT is committed to resolving the power crisis as quickly as possible. He added, "If I can stay here for one year, and systematically implement my plan, I can comfortably say that I will be able to put Tanzania's power problem behind us." ¶10. (C) Deborah Malac noted Washington's concern about the dampening effect of the power crisis on Tanzania's economic growth. "We would hate to see the energy problem undo many of the economic gains which Tanzania has been making over the past years," she stressed. Karamagi agreed and responded that the impact was serious: "Without energy, an economy will drown." Comment: -------------- ¶11. (C) Karamagi's private sector perspective is a much-needed breath of fresh air for the energy sector. With words like, "strategic," "systematic," and "streamline," he is singing a different tune than former Minister Ibrahim Msabaha, who never articulated a vision for the sector during his ten months in office. Especially encouraging was the fact that Minister Karamagi emphasized the need for the GOT to deal directly with principals, repeating verbatim what the Ambassador had told President Kikwete three days earlier. While it is too early to say whether the new Minister of Energy will be able to rescue the sector from further power blues, one thing is for sure; more private-sector oriented management cannot hurt. END COMMENT. RETZER