ZANZIBAR'S OPPOSITION PARTY: YOUTH WANT RESULTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DAR ES SALAAM 001495 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/28/2011 TAGS: PREL PHUM PGOV ECON TZ SUBJECT: ZANZIBAR'S OPPOSITION PARTY: YOUTH WANT RESULTS NOT RHETORIC REF: DAR ES SALAAM 1433 Classified By: Mary B. Johnson, Political Counselor, for reason 1.4(d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. Continuing our probe into the future of Zanzibari politics, the Deputy Chief of Mission met recently with two Civic United Front (CUF) leaders who currently serve as elected members in Zanzibar's House of Representatives. The CUF representatives underscored the growing frustration within CUF's youth wing and suggested that CUF's older, more moderate leaders might be losing touch with their younger supporters. In CUF's view, one immediate catalyst of the youth demonstration on August 15 (reftel),was the introduction of new, unfair measures by the Speaker of Zanzibar's House of Representatives to censor speeches made by opposition party members. While painting a bleak picture of a disillusioned youth wing, the CUF representatives did not suggest that a new strategy was in the works nor air ideas of how to leverage youth vitality to create a more effective opposition party. Rather, the CUF leaders seem to have placed all hopes in President Kikwete's ability to address Zanzibar's political problems. Both representatives expressed the belief that if Kikwete had the will, there was a way - not only to create a government of national unity in Zanzibar, but to overcome historical animosities, or "ghosts of the revolution." END SUMMARY. CUF Leaders Sound Alarm Over Frustrated Youth -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Hon. Hamad Masoud Hamad, Member of Zanzibar's House of Representatives from Pemba's Ole constituency, told the DCM that CUF's youth wing was growing increasingly impatient, demanding an end to the current political impasse. In CUF's view, the impasse stemmed from CCM's failure to uphold democratic elections on Zanzibar in 1995, 2000 and 2005. Masoud Hamad believed that the ruling CCM party has been determined to win elections by "hook or by crook." The August 15 demonstration of 300 CUF youth (reftel) reflected the impatience of the youth wing who took their frustrations directly to the party's revered, three-time Presidential candidate, Maalim Seif Hamad. ¶3. (C) Masoud Hamad went to great lengths to express concern over the agitation stirring within CUF's youth wing: "Our fear is that time is running out. Youth can't tolerate the fact that there have been no signs and no substance on reconciliation. We are sitting on a time-bomb!" He also emphasized the growing disillusionment with democracy among CUF's younger supporters on Unguja, citing examples of youth saying, "Democracy has failed us. We need religion." Tension in House of Representatives Catalyzes Youth -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) Hon. Abbas Muhunzi, shadow minister for Finance and Economic Affairs, explained that the mob of youth decided to confront Seif Hamad after learning about unfair practices in Zanzibar's House of Representatives, namely the Speaker of the House, Pandu Ameir Kificho, demanding to review any speeches made by CUF representatives or "shadow ministers." In CUF's view, the Speaker's introduction of such procedure oversteps the Standing Orders of the House, since the Constitution of Zanzibar allows free speech in the House as long a Government of Zanzibar (GOZ) official is not criticized by name. ¶5. (C) According to Muhunzi, on July 9, Speaker Kificho prevented Masoud Hamad from reading several paragraphs of a prepared speech even though the speech did not mention any GOZ official by name. The Speaker also barred Muhunzi from reading a speech on July 31 because he had not submitted the speech for prior review. Masoud Hamad and Muhunzi also noted that CUF representatives have tried to form Committees in the House to investigate claims of "ghost workers and pensioners" but that these calls have gone unheeded. CUF Leadership: Losing Touch with Youth Base? -------------- ¶6. (C) Both Masoud Hamad and Muhunzi were in Dar es Salaam when the 300 members of CUF's youth wing surrounded Seif Hamad on August 15. Masoud Hamad said that the demonstration was impromptu: "We had no advance warning of the youth's plan to confront Seif Hamad. We learned about the incident only DAR ES SAL 00001495 002 OF 003 afterwards." Both leaders admitted that they were uncertain as to who the "ring leaders" of the demonstration might have been and said that the youth wing was not sharing their strategy with them. What Masoud Hamad and Muhunzi were sure of was that the youth on Unguja had started to doubt the effectiveness of their older, more moderate leaders. Muhunzi said that when the youth confronted Seif Hamad they demanded the real story of what was going on: "If something is happening, tell us. If you have failed, also tell us. Give us an agenda so that we can get our lives back." Masoud Hamad told the DCM that there had been no meetings between CUF leadership on Zanzibar and President Kikwete, secret or otherwise. "Nothing is going on. We have nothing to tell the youth and we are worried about their reaction," he lamented. Can President Kikwete Fix Zanzibar? -------------- ¶7. (C) Masoud Hamad noted that after the December 2005 Union elections, CUF leadership put faith in President Kikwete's promise to address Zanzibar's political and social unrest. He said that CUF supporters, including CUF's youth wing, put stock in Kikwete's ability to bring his knowledge and past experience to bear. CUF supporters were willing to cut President Kikwete slack during his first several months in office given the problems of drought, and food and energy shortage facing the country. "However, after eight months, the silence has been too long. CUF supporters want to see actions not words," Muhunzi told the DCM. ¶8. (C) When the DCM asked what President Kikwete could do to reconcile the polarization in Zanzibar, Masoud Hamad responded with the same proposal that Seif Hamad made after the 2005 elections: the creation of a government of national unity. "We do not want just token Ministers in the Cabinet. We want a Zanzibari government which truly represents both CUF and CCM." Masoud Hamad highlighted that at present half of Zanzibar's Ministry of Finance (MOF) is comprised of CCM officials from the Mainland. There is only one official at the MOF who is a representative from the island of Pemba. He also said that of Zanzibar's 14 Ministers, there was only one CCM Minister from Pemba - a Minster without portfolio and without budget - who has been relegated to an office on Pemba, not Unguja with the other Ministers and government officials. ¶9. (C) Regarding political constraints facing President Kikwete on Zanzibar, Masoud Hamad seconded Dr. Mukandala's view (reftel) that factions within CCM on Zanzibar may be hindering President Kikwete's efforts on reconciliation. However, he told the DCM, "If Kikwete is serious and has good will, then the problem should not take too much time to solve." In contrast to Dr. Mukandala, Masoud Hamad and Muhunzi did not emphasize the historical roots of the animosity between political parties and between the two islands, Unguja and Pemba. Masoud Hamad said that while currently discrimination was pervasive between CCM and CUF, and between people on Unguja and Pemba, the prejudices were temporary and depended on the quality of GOZ administration. "Does the problem have historical roots? Yes. But a good leader in Zanzibar can overcome the discrimination and animosity." He noted that the Mufuaka II Team, which was composed of five CUF representatives and five CCM representatives, worked cooperatively from 2001 to September 2005, demonstrating the possibility that CUF and CCM could work together effectively. Comment: CUF's Strategy: Waiting for Rain? -------------- ¶10. (C) With a sense of urgency, both CUF representatives expressed their concern that the party was losing sway over their base of young, potentially more radical, supporters. While understanding the fact that the youth want results not rhetoric, neither Masoud Hamad nor Muhunzi had a clear picture of what strategy the youth wing might be considering nor which youth leaders may have organized the August 15 demonstration. CUF's patient approach to wait for President Kikwete to follow up on his promise increasingly resembles the long wait for rain during a drought. Indeed, after eight months, the approach is wearing thin among young CUF supporters on Zanzibar's big island, Unguja. CUF leadership appears in need of a strategy make-over to channel the energy of its youth base into a positive force, strengthening the DAR ES SAL 00001495 003 OF 003 party's effectiveness and cohesion. A more pro-active strategy could spur the Kikwete administration to move beyond rhetoric in pursuit of real results. END COMMENT. DELLY