KIKWETE'S BUDGET: NO DEFICIT OF PLANS TO SOLVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L DAR ES SALAAM 001006 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE AF/E FOR B YODER AND AF/EPS FOR T HASTINGS PLEASE PASS TO TREASURY FOR L KOHLER PLEASE PASS TO MCC FOR M KAVANAUGH, G BREVNOV, L BLACK E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/20/2011 TAGS: ECON PGOV TZ SUBJECT: KIKWETE'S BUDGET: NO DEFICIT OF PLANS TO SOLVE SURPLUS OF PROBLEMS Classified By: Economic Counselor, Mary B. Johnson, for reason 1.4(d). ¶1. (U) SUMMARY. With paint still drying on the brand new Parliament building, the Minister of Finance, Zakia Meghji delivered the Government of Tanzania's (GOT's) 2006/07 budget speech on June 15. Overall, the budget speech introduced few surprises, striking a balance between plans to fulfill 2005 election promises and measures to address key issues slowing Tanzania's economic development. The budget reflected revised macro-economic targets and a shift in priorities from social services to infrastructure as well as a focus on empowering public participation in the economy through increased access to credit. Also new in the 2006/07 budget was a small but stand alone reference to an allocation for environmental protection. ¶2. (U) With domestic revenue accounting for only 51 percent of expenditures in 2006/07, Tanzania's dependency on external resources was as apparent as ever. Noting Tanzania's relationship with multilateral development partners such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, Meghji singled out the United States as a bilateral donor, with a reference to the Millennium Challenge Corporation programs. Finally, although there were encouraging signs of greater parliamentary participation in the budget process, one has to admit the legislative role is still modest. As one Member of Parliament put it, "We are still in effect, passengers on a bus." END SUMMARY. A Budget of "Firsts" -------------- ¶3. (U) In sync with the budget speeches of its East African neighbors, Kenya and Uganda, Tanzania's Finance Minster tabled the 2006/07 budget on June 15 at 4 p.m., in a series of firsts. The budget marked the first step of the Kikwete government to implement its election manifesto, the first budget session to be held in the brand new "Bunge" or Parliament building, and the first major address by the country's first woman Finance Minister, Zakia Meghji. After Minister Meghji delivered her address, the Parliament recessed until June 19 and 20 when Parliament would reconvene, discuss and approve the proposal for 2006/07 expenditures and revenue. 
Budget Setbacks in 2006 -------------- ¶4. (U) Before introducing the GOT's 2006/07 budget framework, Meghji reviewed the GOT's progress implementing 2005/06 fiscal policies. Meghji noted Tanzania's "satisfactory" economic performance with a growth rate of 6.8 percent in 2005. As a result of various economic setbacks including a drought and resulting food shortage in early 2006 and steadily increasing oil prices, inflation rose by 2.6 percent, from 4.3 percent in July 2005 to 6.9 percent in April 2006. Although the GOT achieved the expected level of expenditures and domestic revenue collection in 2005/06, an internal re-allocation of expenditures was necessary to address the food and power crises which emerged in the middle of the fiscal year (January 2006). ¶5. (U) The 2006/07 budget established macro-economic targets, reflecting the inflationary trend as well as the slowing of the economy. The 2006/07 budget targeted a real GDP growth of 5.9 percent in 2006, revised downward from the 7.2 percent target, which had been set by the 2005/06 budget. While the 2006/07 budget maintained an inflation target of 4 percent, the budget specified reaching that target by June 2007, giving the GOT one year to reverse the upward inflationary pressure. These 2006/07 targets demonstrated both the GOT's expectation for slight economic setbacks in 2006 and recovery by 2007. ¶6. (U) To move toward the above mentioned targets and other development goals, the 2006/07 budget proposed the following framework for expenditures and revenue collection: Total Expenditure: Approximately USD 3.99 billion (Tsh 4.85 trillion) -- USD 2.57 billion for recurrent expenditures (Tsh 3.12 trillion) -- USD 1.42 billion for development expenditures (Tsh 1.73 trillion) Total Revenue: Approximately USD 3.99 billion (Tsh 4.85 trillion) -- 51 percent from domestic revenue collection -- 45.8 percent from external concessional loans, grants, and debt relief -- 3 percent from draw down on reserves Expenditures for Economic Growth, Empowerment, and Environment -------------- -------------- ¶7. (U) Similar to the 2005/06 budget, development expenditures for 2006/07 will be allocated primarily through the Mkukuta - the country's widely endorsed poverty reduction strategy. Among the Mkukuta's three broad clusters (economic growth, social services and governance),the Kikwete government will focus on economic growth with an emphasis on infrastructure. Resources will be allocated among the Mkukuta's clusters as follows: -- 45.8 percent of expenditures for economic growth including infrastructure (6.8 percent increase from 2005/06) -- 35.8 percent for social services (7.2 percent decrease from 2005/06) -- 18.4 percent for good governance (0.4 percent increase from 2005/06) ¶8. (U) Development expenditures will also begin implementation of the 2005 Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) election manifesto which promised "empowerment" or a better life for every Tanzanian. With the exception of initiatives to broaden access to power and introduce national identity cards, the Kikwete government's approach to empowerment focused on efforts to increase credit access. Several of the measures which Minister Meghji mentioned were to transform the Tanzanian Investment Bank into a development bank, strengthen credit guarantee schemes and micro-finance programs, introduce new types of financing such as mortgages, and establish a special committee comprised of the CEO's of all banks in the country to review issues relating to the availability of and access to credit. ¶9. (U) In addition to expenditures for poverty reduction and empowerment purposes, the 2006/07 budget made a small but specific allocation for the environment, an area which had not been addressed as a stand alone issue in years past. The GOT will direct Tsh 9.4 billion or approximately USD 7.7 million toward an environmental protection strategy to safeguard Tanzania's forests, water supply, pasture lands and livestock. The budget speech also noted several new policies including a ban on the export of logs, the removal of livestock from river sources and a ban on the importation of and production of light plastic bags. The new tax reforms (summarized para 10) further reflect GOT recognition of the impact which fiscal policy can have on promoting environmental sustainability. Reforming Tanzania's Revenue Deficit -------------- ¶10. (U) Acknowledging a shortage of domestic tax revenue (by nearly 50 percent),Meghji pledged to continue reforming Tanzania's tax administration. Through efforts to broaden the tax base, strengthen customs, and monitor progress of the Tanzanian Revenue Authority, the GOT will increase domestic revenue in 2006/07 by 19 percent, from approximately USD 1.7 billion to 2.02 billion. To reach this revenue target and also cope with various economic problems, the budget introduced amendments to ten key tax laws. The majority of these amendments aimed at either curbing tax evasion, increasing GOT revenue, decreasing the burden of the energy crisis or protecting natural resources. Highlights of the new tax reform policies include: -- Energy Related Reforms: Removal the Value Added Tax (VAT) on petroleum products and reduction of the excise duty on kerosene by more than 50 percent per liter to lower the burden of high oil prices and encourage use of liquefied petroleum gas instead of charcoal. Exemption of all solar powered equipment from import duty to promote alternative sources of energy. -- Tax Evasion: Increase of fine for failure to issue invoices and receipts, for fraudulent evasion and for late tax payments. -- Consumer Products: Increase of excise tax on soft drinks, beer and cigarettes by seven percent; Increase on mobile phone airtime from five to seven percent, bringing Tanzania in line with regional rates. -- Producers/Manufacturers: Exemption of salt producers using renewable resources from paying royalty; Elimination of duty on raw materials in the manufacture of paper and welding electrodes. Reduce duty for palm stearin from 25 percent to 10 percent protecting small scale soap manufacturers. -- Agriculture: Imposition of 10 percent duty on crude palm oil to protect local farmers producing alternative oil seeds, delaying the application of the Common External Tariff rate of zero percent set by the East African Community; VAT exemption for locally grown, grounded, roasted or instant coffee. Parliamentarians: Polite Passengers or Back-seat Drivers? -------------- -------------- ¶11. (C) While the reaction to Meghji's 2006/07 budget speech revealed a relatively weak level of Parliamentary oversight in the budget process, participation seemed to be moving in the right direction. Vice Chair of Parliament's Finance Committee, Hon. Adam Malima, called the budget "friendly" and "exciting." Malima was particularly satisfied by Minister Meghji's inclusion of measures to ensure proper use of government funds at the local level through the special unit within the Ministry of Finance to track expenditures up to the final point of disbursement. "Turn to page thirty four," Malima exclaimed, "this part is all my contribution!" With a big smile, the Chair of the Finance Committee, Hon. Abdallah Kigoda, also expressed his approval of the budget speech, noting that over 70 percent of his Committee's concerns were addressed. ¶12. (C) Discussions with Members of Parliament outside the Finance Committee, however, painted a different picture. Parliament did not play a role in the planning stages, offering comments and advice only after the GOT had completed the lions share of the budget proposal. Hon. Harrison Mwakembe, Vice Chair of the Trade and Investment Committee, summarized the fledgling degree of Parliamentary oversight when he told Econoff on June 16, "Right now we parliamentarians play more of an advisory role than a supervisory role. In terms of the budget, we are like passengers on a bus." On a more optimistic note, Mwakembe added that the situation was rapidly changing due to the fact that, "With Samuel Sitta, President Kikwete has appointed a real Speaker to lead the Parliament." Special Mention: Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) -------------- -------------- ¶13. (U) Out of the multitude of donors and donor programs in Tanzania, Minister Meghji highlighted the U.S. sponsored Millennium Challenge Account Threshold Program and the MCC Compact process. The U.S. was the only bilateral donor which she made specific reference to in her speech, indicating the significant level priority which the GOT has placed in the MCC programs and Tanzania's relationship with the United States. Although Tanzania's MCC compact proposal is still in its preparation stages, the discussions and drafts for the proposal have thus far focused on infrastructure. This focus appears in line with the 2006/07 budget trend toward greater allocation of resources to strengthen the country's infrastructure network. Getting On Track to Reach 2007 Targets -------------- ¶14. (U) Comment: Minister Meghji's 2006/07 budget speech reflected both the hope symbolized by Kikwete's government as well as the significant challenges facing Tanzania's economy. The vision blended the lofty goals of empowerment, Mkukuta and Vision 2025, while acknowledging the recent set backs - none more significant than the energy crunch which emerged as a refrain throughout the Minister's speech. Ultimately, the challenge for the Kikwete government will be to minimize economic damage caused by high oil prices and power shortages in 2006 and to get the economy back on track in 2007, ready to realize growth targets of seven plus percent and election promises to "improve the quality of life for every Tanzanian." ¶15. (U) Although the budget speech was largely cosmetic, the speech did reflect strengthened democratic practices in Tanzania. While Parliament's oversight role is still nascent to say the least, the incorporation of concerns from the Finance Committee demonstrated an increasing level of legislative participation in the budget process. What is more, the increased level of parliamentary participation seemed to go hand in hand with an executive branch that is responsive to Parliamentary advice and concerns. RETZER