SYRIAN VIEWS ON FM MOALLEM,S VISIT IRAQ

C O N F I D E N T I A L DAMASCUS 005326 SIPDIS SIPDIS NEA/ELA NSC FOR MARCHESE TREASURY FOR GLASER/LEBENSON E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER SY SUBJECT: SYRIAN VIEWS ON FM MOALLEM,S VISIT IRAQ REF: DAMASCUS 5289 CLASSIFIED BY: CDA MICHAEL H. CORBIN FOR REASONS 1.5 B/D ¶1. (U) UNTIL THE NOVEMBER 21 ASSASSINATION OF PIERRE JAMAYEL, FOREIGN MINISTER WALID MUALLEM,S TRIP TO IRAQ DOMINATED THE HEADLINES AND CONVERSATIONS IN DAMASCUS. SYRIANS OF VARIOUS STRIPES VIEWED THE VISIT AS A SUCCESS AS IT EXTENDED SARG INFLUENCE IN IRAQ WITH BOTH ITS TRADITIONAL ALLIES AND THOSE PREVIOUSLY MORE SUSPICIOUS OF SARG INTENTIONS. HIGHLIGHTED BY OUR SYRIAN INTERLOCUTORS AS IMPORTANT EXAMPLES OF MOALLEM,S SUCCESS WERE; RESTORING DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS AFTER A RUPTURE THAT LASTED 25 YEARS; GETTING GOI AGREEMENT TO IMPLEMENT THE SECURITY PROTOCOL SIGNED DURING FORMER IRAQI PM ALAWI,S VISIT TO DAMASCUS IN JULY, 2004; MUALLEM,S MEETING WITH AND POSITIVE STATEMENTS BY ABDULAZIZ HAKIM, CHAIRMAN OF THE ISLAMIC SUPREME COUNCIL, (LONG VIEWED AS MORE SUSPICIOUS OF DAMASCUS THAN SHITES LOYAL TO MOQTADA AL-SADR); PRESIDENT TALIBANI,S ANNOUNCED VISIT TO DAMASCUS BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR TO CONCLUDE A FRAMEWORK FOR THE BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP; AND A GOI COMMITMENT TO RESOLVE THE OUTSTANDING SYRIAN CLAIMS (ESTIMATED TO TOTAL $1.2 BILLION) AGAINST THE GOI. ¶2. (C) SOME CONTACTS SYMPATHETIC TO THE REGIME BELIEVE THE GENESIS OF MOALLEM,S VISIT WAS THE PRIORITY THE SARG GIVES TO STABILIZING THE SITUATION IN IRAQ. MAHDI SAJJAD, A BUSINESSMAN WITH TIES TO THE SYRIAN REGIME WHO ACCOMPANIED MOALLEM TO IRAQ AND CLAIMS TO HAVE HELPED BROKER THE VISIT OVER A FIVE-MONTH PERIOD, COMMENTED TO US THAT HE WAS ULTIMATELY SUCCESSFUL IN BRINGING THE TWO SIDES TOGETHER IN PART BECAUSE THE SARG CAME TO THE CONCLUSION THAT THE MALIKI GOVERNMENT HAD TO SUCCEED BECAUSE THE ALTERNATIVE WAS WORSE. SAJJAD TOLD US THAT MOALLEM WAS PLEASED WITH HIS RECEPTION BY EVERYONE EXCEPT THE DAWA PARTY IN IRAQ. MOALLEM PROMISED A NUMBER OF TANGIBLES TO HIS IRAQI INTERLOCUTORS THAT THE REGIME HAS ALREADY STARTED TO DELIVER ON: RETURN OF $200 MILLION IN IRAQI FUNDS WRONGLY PAID OUT IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FALL OF SADDAM HUSSEIN, ENDING NEGATIVE PUBLIC STATEMENTS ON IRAQ, AND EXPELLING OR HANDING OVER A NUMBER OF IRAQI BAATHISTS. SAJJAD COMMENTED THAT THE SARG HAD A SIGNIFICANT ABILITY TO POSITIVELY INFLUENCE THE SITUATION IN IRAQ IF RELATIONS WERE TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. ¶3. (C) AS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY TRUE, LOCAL OBSERVERS HAVE BEEN DIVIDED ON THE POTENTIAL ABILITY OF THE SARG TO INFLUENCE DECISIVELY THE SITUATION IN IRAQ. LOCAL AL HAYAT BUREAU CHIEF, IBRAHIM HAMIDI, COMMENTED TO US THAT THE SARG,S INFLUENCE AMONG THE KURDS AND SHIITES WAS WEAKER THAN COMMONLY BELIEVED WHILE ITS INFLUENCE AMONG THE IRAQI BAATHISTS IS CONSISTENTLY OVERSTATED. OTHERS LINKED TO THE REGIME SUCH AS IMAD SHUEBI, A LOCAL FOREIGN POLICY EXPERT, ASSERTED THAT THE SARG IS NOW WELL PLACED TO PLAY AN IMPORTANT, POSITIVE ROLE IN IRAQ IF GIVEN INCENTIVES TO DO SO. SHEUBI POINTED TO THE SARG,S GOOD RELATIONS WITH SUNNIS, INCLUDING BAATHISTS AND TRIBAL LEADERS, AS WELL AS WITH SHIA LEADER MOQTADA AL-SADR AS SIGNIFICANT. HE FURTHER COMMENTED THAT UNLIKE THE IRANIANS, WHO ONLY HAVE GOOD RELATIONS WITH THE SHIITES, SYRIA HAS STRONG, LONG-ESTABLISHED TIES WITH ALL THREE GROUPS, BUTTRESSED BY THE YEARS OF EXILE SPENT IN SYRIA BY THEIR LEADERS. SHUEBI FELT THAT NO OTHER COUNTRY IN THE REGION WAS AS WELL PLACED AS SYRIA TO DECISIVELY INFLUENCE EVENTS. HE NOTED THAT IRAN, WHILE, AN IMPORTANT PLAYER, CARRIED A LOT OF NEGATIVE BAGGAGE, GIVEN THE SUSPICIONS OF THE SUNNIS. CORBIN