MOOD OF THE SARG; CABINET RESHUFFLE RUMORS

C O N F I D E N T I A L DAMASCUS 000528 SIPDIS SIPDIS PARIS FOR ZEYA; LONDON FOR TSOU E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/12/2015 TAGS: PGOV PREL SY SUBJECT: MOOD OF THE SARG; CABINET RESHUFFLE RUMORS Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Stephen A. Seche, per 1.4 b,d. ¶1. (C) Summary: A long-time Embassy contact reported February 8 that the regime is satisfied with the fallout from the February 4 rioting in Damascus, believing it allowed the SARG to present itself as a great protector of Islam and because the caricature/rioting "narrative" has overwhelmed any lingering interest in the assassination of former PM Hariri. The contact predicted a cabinet reshuffle in the next two weeks, echoing the rumors we have heard from others. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Long-standing Embassy contact Riyad Abrash, who maintains ties to the security services, the Ba'ath Party Regional Command, and the office of the president, told Polchief February 8 that the SARG regime is relatively satisfied with the riots that took place February 4, damaging the Danish and Swedish embassies and destroying the Norwegian and the Chilean embassies. According to Abrash, the regime feels that it conveyed the message to the Arab and Islamic worlds that "We are more supportive of Mohammed and Islam than our rivals, the Islamists. We did not just force ambassadors to be withdrawn, we burned their embassies down when they insulted Islam." ¶3. (C) The regime feels that the "narrative of Hariri's assassination" has been overwhelmed by the caricatures/rioting narrative, said Abrash. The SARG is taking comfort in the current situation where it believes people are saying, "Who cares about Hariri when Mohammed is threatened?" reported Abrash. Because of the riots, the visit of Iranian President Ahmadinejad (who "promised financial assistance and pledged to defend Syria"),and previous developments with the UN inquiry into the assassination of Hariri, the SARG has overcome its fear of the UNIIIC inquiry. ¶4. (C) While Bashar al-Asad and First Lady Asma al-Asad (whom he knows through family connections) resent the diplomatic isolation imposed on Syria, the regime feels it has escaped much of the really damaging isolation, said Abrash, and does not "feel the sting" from any economic sanctions. However, the President, despite the overall feelings that the regime is in pretty good shape, remains bothered by the current circumstances and is not sure how to proceed, added Abrash. ¶5. (C) The riots have postponed for about two weeks the plans for a long-awaited cabinet reshuffle, maintained Abrash. Based on input from his sources (who seem to be Ba'ath Party Regional Command heavyweights Hisham Ikhtiyar and Mohammed Said Bukhaytan),Abrash predicted that Asad would dump PM Naji al-Otri (unclear who would succeed him) and appoint Syrian Ambassador to London Sami Khiyami as Foreign Minister. Abrash speculated that General Intelligence Directorate chief Ali Mamluk (a Sunni) would be appointed as Minster of Interior to fill the slot left empty by the death of Ghazi Kana'an and that Hassan Turkmani would remain as Minister of Defense. ¶6. Comment: Abrash's reading of the regime's reaction to the rioting and its overall mood tracks with what we have heard from other contacts and our own assessments. On the predicted cabinet reshuffle, we have been hearing these rumors, with varying frequency, over the past several months, each time accompanied by plausible reasons for delaying any impending change. Other contacts echo the intensity of Abrash's insistence that a move is near, although there are substantial differences about who is in line for specific ministerial positions. Some take issue with Abrash on Otri, for example, and insist that his job as PM is safe, because he is generally liked by Asad and viewed as harmless. Others say that FM Shara'a's star has never shined brighter, because he is perceived as having been vindicated in offering hard-line advice to the the president in handling the current diplomatic crisis, making it an awkward time for Asad to replace him. Even given the intensity of the cabinet-shuffle rumors at the moment, we cannot discount the possibility that -- like so many other times in the past year -- rumors of significant change in the SARG leadership will prove to be nothing more than that. SECHE