MOOD OF THE SARG; CABINET RESHUFFLE RUMORS

C O N F I D E N T I A L DAMASCUS 000528

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

PARIS FOR ZEYA; LONDON FOR TSOU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/12/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL SY
SUBJECT: MOOD OF THE SARG; CABINET RESHUFFLE RUMORS


Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Stephen A. Seche, per 1.4 b,d.


1. (C) Summary: A long-time Embassy contact reported
February 8 that the regime is satisfied with the fallout from
the February 4 rioting in Damascus, believing it allowed the
SARG to present itself as a great protector of Islam and
because the caricature/rioting "narrative" has overwhelmed
any lingering interest in the assassination of former PM
Hariri. The contact predicted a cabinet reshuffle in the
next two weeks, echoing the rumors we have heard from others.
End Summary.


2. (C) Long-standing Embassy contact Riyad Abrash, who
maintains ties to the security services, the Ba'ath Party
Regional Command, and the office of the president, told
Polchief February 8 that the SARG regime is relatively
satisfied with the riots that took place February 4, damaging
the Danish and Swedish embassies and destroying the Norwegian
and the Chilean embassies. According to Abrash, the regime
feels that it conveyed the message to the Arab and Islamic
worlds that "We are more supportive of Mohammed and Islam
than our rivals, the Islamists. We did not just force
ambassadors to be withdrawn, we burned their embassies down
when they insulted Islam."


3. (C) The regime feels that the "narrative of Hariri's
assassination" has been overwhelmed by the
caricatures/rioting narrative, said Abrash. The SARG is
taking comfort in the current situation where it believes
people are saying, "Who cares about Hariri when Mohammed is
threatened?" reported Abrash. Because of the riots, the
visit of Iranian President Ahmadinejad (who "promised
financial assistance and pledged to defend Syria"),and
previous developments with the UN inquiry into the
assassination of Hariri, the SARG has overcome its fear of
the UNIIIC inquiry.


4. (C) While Bashar al-Asad and First Lady Asma al-Asad
(whom he knows through family connections) resent the
diplomatic isolation imposed on Syria, the regime feels it
has escaped much of the really damaging isolation, said
Abrash, and does not "feel the sting" from any economic
sanctions. However, the President, despite the overall
feelings that the regime is in pretty good shape, remains
bothered by the current circumstances and is not sure how to
proceed, added Abrash.


5. (C) The riots have postponed for about two weeks the
plans for a long-awaited cabinet reshuffle, maintained
Abrash. Based on input from his sources (who seem to be
Ba'ath Party Regional Command heavyweights Hisham Ikhtiyar
and Mohammed Said Bukhaytan),Abrash predicted that Asad
would dump PM Naji al-Otri (unclear who would succeed him)
and appoint Syrian Ambassador to London Sami Khiyami as
Foreign Minister. Abrash speculated that General
Intelligence Directorate chief Ali Mamluk (a Sunni) would be
appointed as Minster of Interior to fill the slot left empty
by the death of Ghazi Kana'an and that Hassan Turkmani would
remain as Minister of Defense.


6. Comment: Abrash's reading of the regime's reaction to
the rioting and its overall mood tracks with what we have
heard from other contacts and our own assessments. On the
predicted cabinet reshuffle, we have been hearing these
rumors, with varying frequency, over the past several months,
each time accompanied by plausible reasons for delaying any
impending change. Other contacts echo the intensity of
Abrash's insistence that a move is near, although there are
substantial differences about who is in line for specific
ministerial positions. Some take issue with Abrash on Otri,
for example, and insist that his job as PM is safe, because
he is generally liked by Asad and viewed as harmless. Others
say that FM Shara'a's star has never shined brighter, because
he is perceived as having been vindicated in offering
hard-line advice to the the president in handling the current
diplomatic crisis, making it an awkward time for Asad to
replace him. Even given the intensity of the
cabinet-shuffle rumors at the moment, we cannot discount the
possibility that -- like so many other times in the past year
-- rumors of significant change in the SARG leadership will
prove to be nothing more than that.

SECHE