INITIAL SARG REACTION TO HIZBALLAH HOSTAGE-TAKING

C O N F I D E N T I A L DAMASCUS 003437 SIPDIS SIPDIS PARIS FOR WALLER; LONDON FOR TSOU E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/12/2015 TAGS: PREL PGOV SY LE SUBJECT: INITIAL SARG REACTION TO HIZBALLAH HOSTAGE-TAKING Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Stephen A. Seche, per 1.4 b,d. ¶1. (SBU) In the wake of the taking of two IDF hostages by Hizballah, VP Farouk Shara'a was quoted today as stating that he expected Israeli "escalation" against Syria. Al-Arabiyya satellite TV carried the quote but did not provide details. In a press conference after his meeting with Iranian nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani in Damascus this morning, Shara'a said that "the final say is up to the resistance in Palestine and Lebanon," according to the official Syrian Press Agency, SANA. "They decide what to do and why." He added that "surely the occupation is the source and the cause for the instigation against the Lebanese and Palestinian peoples. That is why there is Lebanese and Palestinian resistance." ¶2. (C) Dr. Imad Shueibi, a Syrian political analyst with close ties to the regime, told Polchief he that foresaw a "dangerous regional situation developing" if there is no international intervention to de-escalate tensions. He urged "intervention in Syria, Lebanon and Israel in support of the peace process" by the U.S. and other interested parties. Shueibi said it would be "a catastrophe" if Israel attacked Syria over the hostage-taking by Hizballah, adding that Syria would not limit its reaction this time as it had done after the buzzing of the Presidential Palace in Lattakia two weeks ago. He described the current Israeli reaction in Lebanon as part of "a package of escalation" the Israelis had engaged in over the past month, in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria. On al-Jazeera, Shueibi discounted the prospects of Israeli escalation against Syria. ¶3. (C) Shueibi noted to Polchief that the hostage-taking operation highlighted Hizballah military capabilities, insisting that it demonstrated how strong Hizballah is and how dangerous it would be to attempt to disarm the militia. ¶4. (C) Comment: SARG reaction to the hostage-taking by Hizballah has been muted thus far. The regime is likely waiting to gauge the level of the Israeli retaliation and also attempting to assess the likelihood of Israel including a swipe at Syria as it puts together its retaliatory response. Our preliminary assessment is that the SARG has concluded that a limited Israeli strike against Syria will only strengthen the regime, as the public rallies to its defense. SECHE