MUTED SYRIAN RESPONSE TO FOURTH UNIIIC INSTALLMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAMASCUS 002779

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

PARIS FOR ZEYA, LONDON FOR TSOU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/12/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KCRM SY LE
SUBJECT: MUTED SYRIAN RESPONSE TO FOURTH UNIIIC INSTALLMENT

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Kathy Johnson-Casares for reasons 1.4
b/d


1. (C) Summary: The SARG has so far limited its public
reaction to the fourth report of the UNIIIC investigation
into the assassination of former Lebanese PM Rafik Hariri,
which was delivered to UNSYG Kofi Annan on June 10. SARG
officials are relatively happy with the report but are
generally refraining from public comment to avoid being
cornered by future Brammertz allegations of regime
involvement, according to contacts. Brammertz's request for
a year-long extension of the investigation benefits the SARG,
as well as the U.S., according to Al-Hayat's Damascus-based
correspondent. A regime critic described the report as
"nothing," and pleasing to the SARG because it "postpones
everything" and sends a signal that the regime has little to
fear. Although some observers have also suggested that the
SARG is worried about incriminating evidence being withheld
by Brammertz, so far, this interpretation seems to be a
minority view. End Summary.


2. (U) The SARG has so far limited its public comment on the
latest installment of the UNIIIC investigation into the
assassination of former Lebanese PM Rafik Hariri. On June
10, UNIIIC Commissioner Serge Brammertz presented the 30-page
interim report to UNSYG Kofi Annan. The document described
Syrian cooperation with UNIIIC, including Brammertz's April
25 meetings with Syrian President Bashar al-Asad and VP
Farouk al-Shara'a and UNIIIC interviews with six witnesses in
Syria, "arranged as and when requested." It characterized
the level of Syrian assistance as "generally satisfactory,"
noting that "Syria responded to all of the Commission's
requests, and did so in a timely manner, and in some
instances comprehensive responses were provided."


3. (U) On June 11, official Syrian newspapers Al-Thawra,
Tishreen and the English-language Syria Times each published
a short, factual front-page story about the release of the
fourth report. None included comments by SARG officials. On
June 12, official papers reported a statement by the Minister
of Information to a Lebanese channel, ANB, saying that Syria
had fully cooperated with UNIIIC and that Brammertz's
meetings with Asad and Shara'a indicated Syria's innocence.
He described the report as relatively professional and not
politicized. The regional Al-Shark al-Awsat newspaper quoted
an official Syrian source as saying that the MFA was studying
the report and would issue a response later. Syrian
political commentators told Al-Shark al-Awsat that Brammertz'
report was more objective than those of his predecessor,
Detlev Mehlis.


4. (C) SARG officials are relatively happy with the report
but are refraining from public comment to avoid being
cornered by future Brammertz allegations of regime
involvement, according to Damascus-based Al-Hayat
correspondent Ibrahim Hamidi. The report contained no big
surprises, said Hamidi, adding that no one had expected
Brammertz to reveal incriminating evidence before the
investigation's completion. Brammertz' request for a
year-long extension of the investigation benefits the SARG,
as well as the U.S., Hamidi asserted. The U.S. is happy to
isolate and pressure Syria for another year, without having
to "open the Syria file" completely in reaction to specific
accusations by Brammertz, Hamidi surmised. The SARG is happy
to postpone having to confront any accusations for another
year, while the regional situation continues to evolve in
Syria's favor, Hamidi said. All4Syria news website publisher
and Baathist reformer Ayman Abdul Noor agreed with Hamidi's
assessment, characterizing the report as "nothing" and
asserting that the regime likes it because it "postpones
everything." According to Abdul Noor, the regime is "no
longer fearful" that the investigation endangers its future
hold on power, instead believing that, at the worst, it may
eventually involve sacrificing a few individuals.


5. (C) Separately, analyst Imad Shueibi, who meets regularly
with SARG officials, including high-level security officers,
professed satisfaction with the report's professional
quality. He said it was superior to the three previous
reports, especially the first two produced by Mehlis.
Shueibi repeated his view that Syria had nothing to do with
Hariri's assassination, that Syrian security services were
incapable of such an operation, and that Israel was likely
involved. Shueibi said he had met earlier the morning of
June 7 with former head of Syrian Military Intelligence in
Lebanon Rustom Ghazaleh, whom he described as a friend.
Ghazaleh purportedly expressed satisfaction with Brammertz's

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new lines of inquiry, including the connection between the
assassination and the al-Madina Bank collapse, which Ghazaleh
believed would "implicate French President Jacques Chirac,
Hariri and others," but not him or other Syrian officials,
Shueibi said. Ghazaleh also discounted the ability of Syrian
security services to mount such an elaborate operation,
Shueibi said.


6. (C) Comment: Clearly, the SARG is happy with the
report's acknowledgment of Syrian cooperation and the lack of
incriminating evidence of Syrian involvement. We suspect
that regime officials are combing the report for signs of
potential, future landmines and that it will weigh further
public reaction with care. It is also clear that, based on
previous conversations, the report deeply disappointed
members of Syria's civil society and opposition who had been
hoping for accusations of SARG involvement to help undermine
the regime's current sense that it has a free hand because
the pressure is off. Several civil society and opposition
members had predicted, in the run-up to the report's release,
that a positive assessment of Syrian cooperation would
further fuel SARG confidence and prolong the SARG crackdown
on the opposition. Separately, some observers believe that
the SARG worries -- as it has in the past -- that this
interim report hints at incriminating evidence being withheld
by Brammertz, but so far this interpretation seems to be a
minority view.
JOHNSON-CASARES