WADE TALKS ABOUT REVIVING THE CHARGES AGAINST SECK

C O N F I D E N T I A L DAKAR 000864 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/W, AF/RSA AND DRL/PHD E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/2011 TAGS: PGOV PINR ECON SG SUBJECT: WADE TALKS ABOUT REVIVING THE CHARGES AGAINST SECK REF: A. DAKAR 00832 ¶B. DAKAR 0565 ¶C. DAKAR 0316 ¶D. 05 DAKAR 2509 Classified By: DCM ROBERT P. JACKSON FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Following former Prime Minister Seck's announcement that he plans to run for President, President Wade ordered a re-examination of "illicit enrichment" charges against Seck. Privately, a member of Seck's team confided that any attempt to re-imprison Seck will be resisted by Seck and his growing mass of supporters. Meanwhile, the Seck camp announced publicly that Seck will launch his electoral campaign next week. END SUMMARY. RE-OPENING THE CASE AGAINST SECK -------------- ¶2. (U) 24 hours after Seck's announcement that he will run for the presidency, the GOS indicated there would be new developments in the "illicit enrichment" case against him. According to "Walfadjri," a leading Dakar daily, the GOS wants to re-open the case and require Seck to prove the origin of his personal bank accounts. State Prosecutor Mbaye Jacques Ndiaye told another newspaper, "Il est Midi," that Seck retains the burden of proof, not the Government, and that his attempt to run for president while still a defendant in a pending case is "invalid." STARTING SECK'S CAMPAIGN -------------- ¶3. (U) Opposition member of the National Assembly and close Seck confidant Omar Sarr told the press Seck will start his election drive next week, with plans to eventually hit all parts of the country. He also claimed the Movement for Support of Idrissa Seck (MSIS) now has up to 600,000 members and signs of support from 11 opposition parties. Kaolack Tidjane leader Mamoune Niasse has announced his support, as we expected (Ref A). ¶4. (C) In confidence, Sarr revealed to us that the MSIS has already conducted "studies," showing that in an electoral contest between Seck, Wade, and Moustapha Niasse, Seck would win, Wade would come in second, and Niasse third. He also said Seck will resist physically any attempt to re-arrest him. Moreover, if Seck is put in prison again, the Seck camp will not ask supporters to be peaceable, as they did when he was in prison before. They will call for violent resistance, which they see as the only solution at that point. Sarr also said he believes Wade's entourage capable of violence -- in fact, of murder. Sarr added that given the deepening economic crisis, he believes elections will be held in 2006 -- not in 2007. He said that he, other members of the Assembly, and the GOS are all aware the GOS has mishandled the budget for this year, but they have maintained a conspiracy of silence for fear of the public reaction. According to him, though, the outcome will be disastrous. COMMENT -------------- ¶5. (C) There has been much criticism of the political talents and judgment of Seck's proteges in the PDS, and we have found Sarr to be energetic and strategically minded but volatile. Clearly, the Government's reopening of charges is a provocation. We take Sarr's predictions of violence with a grain of salt. We will follow up with Seck's older cousin, Alioune Badara Niang (Ref D),who as a former Wade strong-arm, is no stranger to campaign violence. END COMMENT. JACKSON