WADE TALKS ABOUT REVIVING THE CHARGES AGAINST SECK

C O N F I D E N T I A L DAKAR 000864

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W, AF/RSA AND DRL/PHD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/2011
TAGS: PGOV PINR ECON SG
SUBJECT: WADE TALKS ABOUT REVIVING THE CHARGES AGAINST SECK

REF: A. DAKAR 00832


B. DAKAR 0565

C. DAKAR 0316

D. 05 DAKAR 2509

Classified By: DCM ROBERT P. JACKSON FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) Following former Prime Minister Seck's announcement
that he plans to run for President, President Wade ordered a
re-examination of "illicit enrichment" charges against Seck.
Privately, a member of Seck's team confided that any attempt
to re-imprison Seck will be resisted by Seck and his growing
mass of supporters. Meanwhile, the Seck camp announced
publicly that Seck will launch his electoral campaign next
week. END SUMMARY.

RE-OPENING THE CASE AGAINST SECK
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2. (U) 24 hours after Seck's announcement that he will run
for the presidency, the GOS indicated there would be new
developments in the "illicit enrichment" case against him.
According to "Walfadjri," a leading Dakar daily, the GOS
wants to re-open the case and require Seck to prove the
origin of his personal bank accounts. State Prosecutor Mbaye
Jacques Ndiaye told another newspaper, "Il est Midi," that
Seck retains the burden of proof, not the Government, and
that his attempt to run for president while still a defendant
in a pending case is "invalid."

STARTING SECK'S CAMPAIGN
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3. (U) Opposition member of the National Assembly and close
Seck confidant Omar Sarr told the press Seck will start his
election drive next week, with plans to eventually hit all
parts of the country. He also claimed the Movement for
Support of Idrissa Seck (MSIS) now has up to 600,000 members
and signs of support from 11 opposition parties. Kaolack
Tidjane leader Mamoune Niasse has announced his support, as
we expected (Ref A).


4. (C) In confidence, Sarr revealed to us that the MSIS has
already conducted "studies," showing that in an electoral
contest between Seck, Wade, and Moustapha Niasse, Seck would
win, Wade would come in second, and Niasse third. He also
said Seck will resist physically any attempt to re-arrest
him. Moreover, if Seck is put in prison again, the Seck camp
will not ask supporters to be peaceable, as they did when he
was in prison before. They will call for violent resistance,
which they see as the only solution at that point. Sarr also
said he believes Wade's entourage capable of violence -- in
fact, of murder. Sarr added that given the deepening
economic crisis, he believes elections will be held in 2006
-- not in 2007. He said that he, other members of the
Assembly, and the GOS are all aware the GOS has mishandled
the budget for this year, but they have maintained a
conspiracy of silence for fear of the public reaction.
According to him, though, the outcome will be disastrous.

COMMENT
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5. (C) There has been much criticism of the political
talents and judgment of Seck's proteges in the PDS, and we
have found Sarr to be energetic and strategically minded but
volatile. Clearly, the Government's reopening of charges is
a provocation. We take Sarr's predictions of violence with a
grain of salt. We will follow up with Seck's older cousin,
Alioune Badara Niang (Ref D),who as a former Wade
strong-arm, is no stranger to campaign violence. END COMMENT.
JACKSON