EX-PM SECK RELEASED FROM PRISON: WHY AND WHY NOW?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAKAR 000316 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL/PHD AND INR/AA E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/08/2016 TAGS: PHUM PGOV KJUS SG SUBJECT: EX-PM SECK RELEASED FROM PRISON: WHY AND WHY NOW? REF: A. DAKAR 0181 ¶B. 05 DAKAR 2509 Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROY L. WHITAKER FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) The Government released former Prime Minister Idrissa Seck from Reubeuss prison on February 7 after charges against him were "partially" dropped. It remains unclear which charges might be held open; one fallback is an accusation of undue accumulation of wealth. Seck was released precisely at the time that Senegal was playing a key Africa Cup soccer match, presumably to reduce media coverage. President Abdoulaye Wade, meanwhile, was in Equatorial Guinea. There were numerous legal and political reasons for Seck's release. Most important is that Wade needs to quell tensions in his ruling Senegalese Democratic Party (PDS) before his most important speech of the year, the April 4 Independence Day address. END SUMMARY. &NON LIEU PARTIEL8 -------------- ¶2. (SBU) A judicial finding of "non lieu," as we understand it, signifies that a charge has been dropped for lack of evidence. The judges investigating Seck decided on the apparently highly unusual finding of partial non-lieu. Whatever its precise legal import, this means the judges hold open the possibility of reopening the investigation of Seck at a later date. We are trying to determine exactly what charges may be left open. One default possibility is a catch-all charge of undue accumulation of wealth. In any case, the judges also ordered Seck's release. ¶3. (SBU) Seck gave a statement on arriving home, but he was released from prison almost precisely at the time Senegal was playing a key Africa Cup soccer match; so relatively few people heard it. Newspapers the next morning divided between those who headlined Seck's liberation and those that lamented Senegal's football loss. President Wade, meanwhile, was in Equatorial Guinea and made no comment on the Seck release. WHY AND WHY NOW? -------------- ¶4. (C) Jurists have been arguing for weeks that the government's allegedly faulty application of the law and non-constitutional manipulation of national institutions would soon force Seck's release (Ref A). Timing also played a part. Perhaps no one in Government noticed, but the time Seck spent in prison (July 15 - February 7, or 6 3/4 months) virtually equaled the seven months then-opposition leader Wade spent in prison in 1993. More pressing is Wade's need to have his ruling PDS apparatus fully unified when he gives his important Independence Day address April 4. On that day, he will both present his vision of the future to the nation and issue marching orders to his party for the February 2007 elections, and he needs to have neutralized public resentment at Seck's arrest. ¶5. (C) While we cannot quantify Seck's popularity either in the PDS or beyond, it is clear that Wade's loyalists fear his capacity to spoil their election chances. Furthermore, Seck has threatened to mobilize or energize non-partisan opposition to Wade and the PDS. To take just one example, the Tidjane Brotherhood, Senegal,s largest religious brotherhood, is increasingly restless with what it sees as Wade's neglect, and its youth movement will hold its annual gathering in the Tidjane capital of Tivaouane on February 9. Last year, youth chairman Moustapha Sy faced down a cabinet minister and demanded Seck's reintegration into the PDS. This year he might have called for his immediate release, and that could have further catalyzed Tidjane political discontent. ¶6. (C) We spoke February 7 to law professor and former Wade counselor Mamadou Camara (Ref B),who predicted to us five months ago that Wade would not allow the charges against Seck to stand. Camara says Seck's release was necessary to satisfy Seck loyalists, to mollify those in the PDS who think Wade had victimized Seck and to abort any potential cooperation between Seck and the opposition. According to Camara, Wade will now be free to undertake a strategy of "sausage slicing" against the opposition, cutting off and co-opting influential segments or individual leaders one at a time ) as he has done so successfully over the last six years. ¶7. (C) Senegal Radio and Television (RTS) Director and Wade communications honcho Moustapha Dieng predicted to us February 6 that internal PDS opposition to Seck's release DAKAR 00000316 002 OF 002 will be intense. Ministers whose ambitions were stymied by Seck when he was Prime Minister will seek to block his reintegration into the party leadership. Newly appointed Agriculture Minister and Wade diehard Farba Senghor, Dieng singled out, has identified himself almost totally as a Seck enemy over the last six months, and would find it extremely hard to work with Seck in preparing the PDS election campaign. ¶8. (C) Over lunch February 8, Samba Bathily and two other Seck activists told us they consider that Seck remains outside the PDS. They believe Wade needs Seck more than Seck needs Wade, that he will never dare reinstitute legal charges against him; time is on their side; Wade is running scared; and it will be in Seck's interest to put off any deal until just before the election, if indeed at all. What they wish for is to see Seck run for Parliament as de facto head of the opposition's parliamentary list. Then, they believe he would become National Assembly President and the next in line to the presidency. COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) Seck's release from prison is only the first step in his possible political rehabilitation. Many Senegalese are certain Wade and Seck have struck a deal, possibly involving Seck's active support for Wade in the election campaign, though no one yet knows the details. Some suspect charges have been left open in case Seck reneges on any commitments he has made, and that if he causes trouble for Wade, he will find himself again before the courts. We have always underscored our support for a fair and transparent process, and Senegal's judges to their credit have done the right thing to date. The Secretary's July 20 press conference, Congressmen Wolf's November letter and Codel Kolbe's January 4 intervention with President Wade almost certainly played a key role in bringing Seck's incarceration to an end. END COMMENT. JACKSON