UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DAKAR 002588

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

STATE FOR IO/UNP, INR/AA, DRL/AE, AF/RSA AND AF/W
PARIS FOR POL - D'ELIA
USUN FOR NELSON

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL ECIN EPET PINS SNAR SG
SUBJECT: LOOKING AT ELECTIONS AND OIL, UN SEES UNEMPLOYMENT AS
THREAT TO REGIONAL STABILITY

SUMMARY
--------------

1. (SBU) On October 19, the six UN special representatives (UNSRs)
in West Africa gathered in Dakar for their eighth meeting under the
chairmanship of Ambassador Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah, the UN Secretary
General's Special Representative for West Africa. They focused on
Cote d'Ivoire and Guinea although they also discussed Liberia,
Sierra Leone and Guinea-Bissau, as well as regional issues. On
October 20 and 21, academics, diplomats and representatives of NGOs
joined the group and identified unemployment as the greatest threat
to regional stability. The participants examined oil politics,
governance and accountability, institutional changes, corruption,
narcotics and human trafficking, and the eight national elections
scheduled for 2008. Participants felt that Liberia's GEMAP could be
a model. They also urged the international community to pressure
ECOWAS countries to abide by election commitments. END SUMMARY.

POINTS ABOUT SPECIFIC COUNTRIES AND CONFLICTS
--------------

2. (SBU) The UNSRs examined both country-specific and regional
issues, looking beyond the four countries where peace missions
currently exist (Cote d'Ivoire, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia and Sierra
Leone):

-- COTE D'IVOIRE: They expressed support for the Economic Community
of West African States (ECOWAS) and African Union (AU) proposals for
Cote d'Ivoire and called upon Ivoirians to relaunch the peace
process. They noted that the Liberia peace-keeping operation is
much larger than the one in Cote d'Ivoire on a per capita basis, but
the situation in Cote d'Ivoire is far more fragile.

-- LIBERIA: Turning to Liberia, they stressed satisfaction with
progress on security sector reform and the Governance and Economic
Management Program (GEMAP). The UNSRs highlighted job creation,
reconciliation and management of expectations as key issues for the
months ahead.

-- SIERRA LEONE: They focused on the pre-election environment,
noting that the police have

removed all roadblocks.

-- SENEGAL: The Casamance conflict has economic and cultural
similarities to the conflict in Sierra Leone, and the rebels enjoy
international support.

-- GUINEA-BISSAU: As for Guinea-Bissau, narcotics trafficking and
strengthening intra-party democracy are the key issues.

-- GUINEA: Although there is no UNSR in Conakry, the UNDP ResRep
attended the meeting and highlighted the fragility of the political
and economic situation.

THREATS AND CHALLENGES TO PEACE CONSOLIDATION
--------------

3. (U) On October 20 and 21, the UN Office for West Africa (UNOWA)
and the Goree Institute broadened the meeting to include academics,
diplomats and representatives of non-governmental organizations
(NGOs), including the Conflict Prevention and Peace Forum and Human
Rights Watch. The meeting examined a number of themes:
unemployment, oil politics, institutional changes, unchanging
elites, electoral accountability and good governance. Participants
identified unemployment as the greatest single danger to regional
security and stability. They also made recommendations for the next
UN Security Council session on West Africa -- planned for either
January or February under the Russian or Slovak presidency.

TRANSPARENCY AND ACCOUNTABILITY
--------------

4. (U) Recognizing that the origins of many regional conflicts are
economic, Liberia's experience with GEMAP generated considerable
debate. However, a consensus emerged that West Africans must
ultimately demand as much or more of their governments than
outsiders.

OIL POLITICS
--------------

5. (U) Oil politics kept coming up because of Cote d'Ivoire and
Mauritania's new oil wealth and the potential for it in Guinea and
Guinea-Bissau. Participants strongly agreed that extractive
industries need to be socially responsible and work with West
African governments to ensure that mineral and petroleum wealth is
shared with the people. Participants also encouraged the World Bank
and IMF to share best practices, such as the Extractive Industries
Transparency Initiative (EITI).

ELECTIONS AND ELITES
--------------

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6. (U) There was broad agreement that instability has not usually
resulted in changes in leadership. In Cote d'Ivoire, Guinea-Bissau,
Liberia and Sierra Leone, fighting has not created generational or
political change, and the same actors continue to play leading
roles. Before next year's eight elections, ECOWAS and the AU need
to remind ECOWAS leaders that in 2001 they subscribed to a
non-binding agreement that constitutional provisions governing the
conduct of elections and electoral codes would not change in the six
months prior to elections. (NOTE: Senegal is in clear violation.
END NOTE.)

INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE
--------------

7. (SBU) While elites may not have changed, institutions have. The
African Union in particular is far more assertive and engaged than
the Organization of African Unity. In fact, the AU's position on
Cote d'Ivoire -- while perhaps not what France would have hoped for
-- is far stronger than it was even a year ago. However,
participants cautioned that the AU is not ready to address Guinea
(or Zimbabwe) because of their leaders' roles in the decolonization
process. Strong presidencies also present a barrier to change.

COMMENT
--------------

8. (SBU) While the AU may be growing stronger, West Africa's elites
are not changing and are not moving to address the region's problems
as fast as the international community would like. Unemployment;
transparency; accountability; narcotics and human trafficking;
investment promotion (private-sector-led growth), and the freedom,
fairness and transparency of elections are all key issues that
donors, including the UN and the IFIs should continue to examine.
We should indeed focus on GEMAP and on sharing best practices for
managing new found oil wealth. Finally, we should hold ECOWAS
members accountable for commitments concerning the conduct of
elections. END COMMENT.


9. (U) Visit Embassy Dakar's classified website at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/af/dakar.

JACOBS