GUINEA-BISSAU: THE LIGHTS ARE BACK ON, BUT WHERE'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAKAR 000154 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/W, DRL/PHD AND INR/AA ACCRA ALSO FOR WARP LISBON ALSO FOR DAO PARIS FOR POL - D'ELIA E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/23/2016 TAGS: PINS PGOV PREL KDEM BR FR GV SG PU SUBJECT: GUINEA-BISSAU: THE LIGHTS ARE BACK ON, BUT WHERE'S THE POWER? REF: 05 DAKAR 3179 (NOTAL) Classified By: CDA ROBERT P. JACKSON FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). SUMMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) The Vieira/Aristides Gomes Government continues to develop its program, and neither the Popular National Assembly (ANP) nor the Supreme Court seems anxious to bring the Government down. The African Party for the Independence of Guinea-Bissau and Cape Verde (PAIGC) continues to argue for a national unity government and says that it will not cooperate, but the divisions within the largest party are out in the open. Former President Malam Bacai Sanha believes that France is playing an unhelpful role. For its part, the PRC donated USD 3 million to rehabilitate military barracks and facilities and to build a regional hospital in Canchungo. Meanwhile, NDI has started work with parliamentarians and civil society, and Embassy Dakar,s new Guinea-Bissau Watcher, Gregory Holliday, has arrived. After seven years, the Government has restored electricity to Bissau. END SUMMARY. ELECTRICITY RESTORED -------------- ¶2. (U) Prime Minister Aristides Gomes, government continues to prepare its program and budget, as it shows Bissau-Guineans that it can make a difference in their lives. Perhaps fearing that Liberian President Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf,s plans for Monrovia would leave Bissau as the only non-electrified African capital, the Gomes Government has restored electricity to Bissau after seven years of darkness. BUT WHERE,S THE POWER? -------------- ¶3. (U) Meanwhile, the National Popular Assembly (ANP) and the Supreme Court each wait for the other to decide whether or not to bring the Government down. Although the Supreme Court was to have ruled on the legitimacy of the Gomes Government by mid-December, it has yet to announce a decision. For its part, the ANP seems to be in no hurry to schedule a budget/confidence vote, with the earliest such vote now likely in early February and no one is sure of the outcome. ¶4. (C) What is certain is the PAIGC,s undying hostility for President Joao Bernardo &Nino8 Vieira and Aristides Gomes. On January 10, the PAIGC released a statement making its opposition to the Government abundantly clear. (COMMENT: Since defeated PAIGC presidential candidate Malam Bacai Sanha was in Spain when the PAIGC acted, it appears that former Prime Minister Carlos Domingos Gomes, Junior, continues to lead the hard liners, and the PAIGC,s divisions are out in the open. END COMMENT.) ¶5. (C) In recent embassy meetings with Bacai, he had taken a somewhat softer line. We urged reconciliation and a focus on the future, and he said he would be willing to meet with Vieira again. However, he accused Vieira of corruption and narcotics trafficking (septel). FOREIGN AFFAIRS -------------- ¶6. (C) Bacai also had some interesting points to make on foreign policy. Bacai asserted that Portugal has no strategy for Guinea-Bissau. He also said that France is working through its &proxies, Guinea and Senegal8 to ensure that the development of Guinea-Bissau,s petroleum reserves is done by French companies. Bacai stated that he would like to visit the United States in May, and Charge told him that we would be pleased to arrange some appointments for him in Washington. ¶7. (U) On January 17, Chinese Ambassador Tian Guangfeng and Secretary of State for International Cooperation Tibna Sambe SIPDIS Nawana signed a USD 3 million to rehabilitate military barracks and other military installations as well as to build a regional hospital in Canchungo. COMMENT DAKAR 00000154 002 OF 002 -------------- ¶8. (C) Bacai may be correct that Portugal lacks a coherent strategy for Guinea-Bissau, but China seems to have one. The Mission does not believe that either Guinea or Senegal is acting on France,s behalf in Guinea-Bissau. While the political feuding in Bissau continues, the Gomes Government is taking action to build popular support. At this point, it seems likely that the ANP will vote on the government,s budget and program )- essentially a confidence vote )- before the Supreme Court tackles the legitimacy issue. However, neither institution appears to want to be blamed for causing the Government to fall. The National Democratic Institute has started its parliamentary training program, working from the Brazilian Embassy in Bissau, and our new Guinea-Bissau Watcher, Gregory Holliday, has assumed his new duties. END COMMENT. JACKSON