GUINEA-BISSAU: BORDER CALMING DOWN FOR NOW

C O N F I D E N T I A L DAKAR 001004 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL/PHD, INR/AA AND PRM/AA AID/W FOR DCHA/OFDA ACCRA ALSO FOR WARP GENEVA FOR RMA LISBON ALSO FOR DAO PARIS FOR POL - D'ELIA ROME FOR FODAG E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/26/2016 TAGS: MOPS PINS EAID PGOV PHUM PREL ECON PU SG SUBJECT: GUINEA-BISSAU: BORDER CALMING DOWN FOR NOW Classified By: DCM Robert P. Jackson for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (U) Fighting in northern Guinea-Bissau has mostly ended with all rebel bases overrun by the Bissau-Guinean military. A new wave of displaced flooded into isolated Susana during the final push, but others have begun returning home to Sao Domingos, where life is returning to normal. The World Food Program (WFP) has fed the displaced since the mid-March inception of the conflict and has depleted its stocks but will borrow from WFP stocks in Senegal until more is provided by the UN. WFP is planning on six more months of assistance. Political leaders say this is the end, but the Armed Forces Chief threatened to keep fighting until the rebel faction joins peace talks with Government of Senegal. END SUMMARY. UNCOMFORTABLE BUT PROVIDED FOR -------------- ¶2. (U) Major military operations appear to have largely ended in northern Guinea-Bissau, but people will remain displaced for several more months until they get assurances from the Government and international organizations providing assistance that it is safe to return. Land mines still pose the biggest risk and many are likely buried in cashew fields. Those who are unable to return soon to tend to their crops will suffer a heavy economic burden that will last well beyond the discomfort of being displaced. In Cacheu and Ingore, the two largest sites, there are still about 1,000 and 760 displaced, respectively. A new wave of about 1,000 displaced flooded into Susana on April 21 during another GOGB offensive on rebel bases. ¶3. (U) Most who live in Sao Domingos have gone back home and life is returning to normal there, with the school reopening and commerce resuming. Some displaced people trekked back to check on their homes around Barraca Mandioca, a rebel base that saw heavy fighting, but they returned to Ingore over concerns about land mines. They found all livestock and food gone, but physical structures in good condition. ¶4. (U) The Bissau-based WFP has taken primary responsibility for providing food for all internally displaced persons, even in the isolated Susana and Varela areas, which are accessed via boat. The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC),local Red Cross, Adventist Development and Relief Agency (ADRA),and local Catholic missions coordinate distribution, volunteers and supply of basic medicines. The Government has allowed relief agencies to operate in all areas, but has done little to coordinate or provide basic needs. Last week, the GOGB finally agreed to use stocks of rice as WFP,s were depleted. WFP is planning on receiving UN support for another three to six months of food aid. END TO HOSTILITIES? -------------- ¶5. (C) The Community of Portuguese Speaking Countries (CPLP),the ICRC and non-governmental organizations such as the West African Network for Peacebuilding (WANEP) indicate the Government has been open to negotiating with Movement of Democratic Forces of the Casamance (MFDC) Atika rebel faction leader Salif Sadio, offering to cease hostilities if he would leave Guinea-Bissau. Recent comments by Armed Forces Chief of Staff LTG Baptista Tagme na Waie that he would take the fight to Sadio in Senegal if he does not enter into peace talks with the GOS represent a disconnect with the political leadership. COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) It appears that Tagme,s desire for a military victory may be pushing political leaders further than they want to go. At this point, the military seems to be under control of civilian political leadership, but if GOGB forces do not exclude fighting outside Guinea-Bissau, that will be in doubt. END COMMENT. JACOBS