C O N F I D E N T I A L DAKAR 001004

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL/PHD, INR/AA AND PRM/AA
AID/W FOR DCHA/OFDA
ACCRA ALSO FOR WARP
GENEVA FOR RMA
LISBON ALSO FOR DAO
PARIS FOR POL - D'ELIA
ROME FOR FODAG

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/26/2016
TAGS: MOPS PINS EAID PGOV PHUM PREL ECON PU SG
SUBJECT: GUINEA-BISSAU: BORDER CALMING DOWN FOR NOW


Classified By: DCM Robert P. Jackson for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
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1. (U) Fighting in northern Guinea-Bissau has mostly ended
with all rebel bases overrun by the Bissau-Guinean military.
A new wave of displaced flooded into isolated Susana during
the final push, but others have begun returning home to Sao
Domingos, where life is returning to normal. The World Food
Program (WFP) has fed the displaced since the mid-March
inception of the conflict and has depleted its stocks but
will borrow from WFP stocks in Senegal until more is provided
by the UN. WFP is planning on six more months of assistance.
Political leaders say this is the end, but the Armed Forces
Chief threatened to keep fighting until the rebel faction
joins peace talks with Government of Senegal. END SUMMARY.

UNCOMFORTABLE BUT PROVIDED FOR
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2. (U) Major military operations appear to have largely
ended in northern Guinea-Bissau, but people will remain
displaced for several more months until they get assurances
from the Government and international organizations providing
assistance that it is safe to return. Land mines still pose
the biggest risk and many are likely buried in cashew fields.
Those who are unable to return soon to tend to their crops
will suffer a heavy economic burden that will last well
beyond the discomfort of being displaced. In Cacheu and
Ingore, the two largest sites, there are still about 1,000
and 760 displaced, respectively. A new wave of about 1,000
displaced flooded into Susana on April 21 during another GOGB
offensive on rebel bases.


3. (U) Most who live in Sao Domingos have gone back home and
life is returning to normal there, with the school reopening
and commerce resuming. Some displaced people trekked back to
check on their homes around Barraca Mandioca, a rebel base
that saw heavy fighting, but they returned to Ingore over
concerns about land mines. They found all livestock and food
gone, but physical structures in good condition.


4. (U) The Bissau-based WFP has taken primary responsibility
for providing food for all internally displaced persons, even
in the isolated Susana and Varela areas, which are accessed
via boat. The International Committee of the Red Cross
(ICRC), local Red Cross, Adventist Development and Relief
Agency (ADRA), and local Catholic missions coordinate
distribution, volunteers and supply of basic medicines. The
Government has allowed relief agencies to operate in all
areas, but has done little to coordinate or provide basic
needs. Last week, the GOGB finally agreed to use stocks of
rice as WFP,s were depleted. WFP is planning on receiving
UN support for another three to six months of food aid.

END TO HOSTILITIES?
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5. (C) The Community of Portuguese Speaking Countries
(CPLP), the ICRC and non-governmental organizations such as
the West African Network for Peacebuilding (WANEP) indicate
the Government has been open to negotiating with Movement of
Democratic Forces of the Casamance (MFDC) Atika rebel faction
leader Salif Sadio, offering to cease hostilities if he would
leave Guinea-Bissau. Recent comments by Armed Forces Chief
of Staff LTG Baptista Tagme na Waie that he would take the
fight to Sadio in Senegal if he does not enter into peace
talks with the GOS represent a disconnect with the political
leadership.

COMMENT
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6. (C) It appears that Tagme,s desire for a military
victory may be pushing political leaders further than they
want to go. At this point, the military seems to be under
control of civilian political leadership, but if GOGB forces
do not exclude fighting outside Guinea-Bissau, that will be
in doubt. END COMMENT.
JACOBS