RULING PAR PARTY WINS BIG, PRO-CHAVEZ LEFT LOSES BIG IN NA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CURACAO 000127 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL NA SUBJECT: RULING PAR PARTY WINS BIG, PRO-CHAVEZ LEFT LOSES BIG IN NA ELECTIONS ¶1. (U) The ruling PAR party led by its new leader Emily de Jongh-Elhage had a dramatic win in Curacao's national elections January 27 with over 25 percent of the vote, gaining five seats. In a night of surprises Charles Cooper's MAN party jumped from no seats in the last national election to three seats with over 18 percent of the Curacao vote and became the second largest party. Coalition partner PNP kept its two seats and centrist newcomer Forsa Korsou gained two seats. Elections on the other islands resulted in few surprises except for the National Alliance just edging out the Democratic Party in St. Maarten as that island's largest party. ¶2. (U) The night's losers were Anthony Godett and his FOL party and its island-level coalition partner PLKP led by Errol Cova. Cova, who was pushed out of the government for his pro-Chavez, anti-Dutch statements last May, received no seats while the FOL received only two. -------------- -------------- -------------- Why did PAR Win and the FOL and PLKP Lose? -------------- -------------- -------------- ¶3. (SBU) With the selection of Emily de Jongh-Elhage as party leader the PAR set out and developed a positive campaign focusing on good governance, crime, education and building a unified strategy to deal with the island's problems as it moves toward autonomy. She was a particularly strong campaigner with a calm, common touch laying out her party's five point plan, calling for unity and an end to the politics of confrontation. Policies begun under PM Ys' government have also begun to show fruit as the crime rate has declined. PAR was also helped by a successful fund raising effort to run its campaign. ¶4. (SBU) Anthony Godett seemed incapable of getting his capaign underway. Waiting to serve his ten-month jail term for corruption, Goddett tried to use the old tactics of claiming to be a victim of the Dutch "colonialists" and big business. Sensing that the FOL was faltering in the last days of the campaign he tried to use the "Goddett" name as a vote getter, by claiming he was leading a political dynasty which would last for centuries. The absurdity of the statement went too far, even for some of his supporters. (His father led the riots in 1969 and founded the FOL.) -------------- Venezuela and Chavez -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Venezuela and Chavez, while rarely raised directly in the campaign, were important factors. As a coalition partner with the FOL on the island level, the PLKP, led by former deputy PM Errol Cova, simply did not gauge accurately how much the electorate disliked his statements supporting Chavez and lambasting the Dutch. From a kingmaker in previous governments, his party suffered a serious defeat gaining just six percent of the vote and no seats. For its part the FOL tried to distance itself from Cova's support for Chavez, but simply were not believed by the voters. ¶6. (SBU) The message given by the voters in this election can be summed up as follows: No to Chavez; No to Confrontation; Yes to autonomous status in the Kingdom; Yes to good governance and sensible financial policy; and Yes to fighting crime and cooperating with the Dutch. Most importantly, the voters set the stage for what could be one of the more stable periods of government in the Netherlands Antilles and Curacao as efforts move forward to a new constitutional framework and autonomy for Curacao and St. Maarten. -------------- PAR/PNP Coalition with MAN -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Following the election both Emily de Jongh-Elhage and Charles Cooper indicated interest in synchronizing governments on the island and central levels. Synchronization means that the coalition on the island level mirrors that of the central level in order to coordinate policy initiatives. While PAR CURACAO 00000127 002 OF 002 could easily form a government on the central level without MAN, a coalition with MAN would provide the opportunity of forcing changes in the island government. What will be at issue is to what extent MAN will be able to curb its desires. Largely succeeding due to popular disgust with FOL and PLKP as well as to its solid performance in government on the island level, MAN will have to gauge carefully how much it can get in a coalition with PAR. However, Emily's previous work with Charles Cooper on the island council leads to expectations that a deal can be able to be worked out. Time, however, is of the essence for MAN. With new constitutional arrangements due by July 2007, PAR may well decide taking a few months to form a coalition with MAN is not worth it. New party Forsa Korsou with its two seats is interested in joining a coalition, and could give PAR and PNP the additional strength. -------------- -------------- What does this election mean for the U.S.? -------------- -------------- ¶8. (SBU) It was a clear repudiation of any thought that Curacaoans have much sympathy for Venezuela and Chavez. While there are substantial ties between the two countries, the average Curacaoan considers his Venezuelan neighbor as pushy and some even say "racist." The bombastic statements emanating from Caracas over U.S. ship visits and the Forward Operating Location in Curacao only reinforced this popular perception as seen in this election. For the upcoming negotiations on the Isla refinery in Curacao, Chavez's political card will be harder play, particularly as rumors of U.S. firms' interest in the refinery are stoked. ¶9. (SBU) While the exact outlines of the new government have yet to be delineated, it is expected that it will continue and enhance close cooperation with the United States, particularly in the areas of counter-narcotics, counter-terrorism and border security. We can expect as well that this PAR-led government will be an advocate for good governance and will further embrace globalization of its economy. SORENSON