DANES SAY EU CONSENSUS DOES NOT SUPPORT NICARAGUAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L COPENHAGEN 000973 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/17/2016 TAGS: KDEM AORC PGOV PREL NU DA SUBJECT: DANES SAY EU CONSENSUS DOES NOT SUPPORT NICARAGUAN ELECTION DONOR GROUP STATEMENT FOR NOW REF: SECSTATE 114848 Classified By: Counselor for Political and Economic Affairs William Mozdzierz, Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D) ¶1. (C) While Denmark shares U.S. concerns expressed in ref draft statement, it also will not break with the EU consensus that the release of a statement now is premature. MFA Head of Section for Latin America Erik Hoeg told Pol/Econ Counselor and PolOff July 17 that Denmark saw "very little to dispute" in the substance of the proposed statement. Denmark has two priority development countries in Latin America: Nicaragua and Bolivia, hence Denmark follows events with Nicaragua with "special interest," Hoeg said. Hoeg added that Denmark was very aware of potential election difficulties (e.g., lack of a fully independent CSE),and because of this Denmark had also been a leader in pushing inside the EU for an EU Election Observation Mission for Nicaragua. ¶2. (C) However, while Hoeg indicated Denmark was in agreement on the substance of the draft statement, it shares questions with other EU members on timing. Hoeg said EU heads of mission in Managua had met on 24 May and 25 June and reached consensus that they did not favor issuing a statement now. Denmark will not break with that consensus, Hoeg confirmed. Discussion among the EU HOMs, according to Hoeg, centered on the issue of how many statements could usefully be issued in advance of the election and the point at which "too many statements reach diminishing returns." In meantime, Hoeg said, EU missions are advocating for "quiet diplomacy." ¶3. (C) Pol/Econ Counselor countered that, while quiet diplomacy has its role, it is important that the people of Nicaragua see early and often that the international donor community publicly backs their desire for a free and fair election. Issuing this statement now lays down an important marker as we head into the fall election season that the international community is engaged and watching. Hoeg indicated that Denmark and other EU members were not averse to issuing a statement farther into the election season. Pol/Econ Counselor cautioned that it would be better that our statements come earlier and be proactive, rather than reflect after-the-fact judgments on actions/events that might have been prevented. KAISER