KEEPING DENMARK IN IRAQ: REQUEST FOR INTERAGENCY

C O N F I D E N T I A L COPENHAGEN 000324 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/2016 TAGS: PREL MARR IZ DA SUBJECT: KEEPING DENMARK IN IRAQ: REQUEST FOR INTERAGENCY TEAM REF: A. COPENHAGEN 286 ¶B. COPENHAGEN 207 ¶C. COPENHAGEN 111 Classified By: AMBASSADOR JAMES P. CAIN, REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (C) Summary. The Danish parliament in May will vote on a yet-to-be drafted government resolution to extend Denmark's contributions to Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) and the NATO Training Mission (NTM-I) through the remainder of 2006. In preparation for what will be a difficult political challenge, government officials have begun to consider appropriate force levels and deployments, PRT participation, civilian participation, and development assistance levels. The government in April will release a public "white paper" on Iraq to frame the May parliamentary debate. Senior Danish officials have expressed strong interest in having a USG interagency team visit Denmark to discuss specific political and operational matters related to Denmark's continuing presence in Iraq. Embassy strongly recommends that Washington send such a team during the week of April 3. It would also be useful to make senior U.S. officials available to Danish journalists in the run-up to the late May vote on Iraq in the Danish parliament. End Summary. -------------- Danish Timetable -------------- ¶2. (C) The mandate for Danish participation in the multinational force in Iraq expires July 1 and must be renewed before this session of parliament adjourns in early June. The Danish government expects to introduce the necessary resolution in early May. The decisive vote would take place around May 30, although a senior MFA official acknowledged to the Ambassador that the exact timetable could hinge on an Iraqi government being formed and functioning by the time the Danish parliament votes. (Ref A) ¶3. (C) It appears very likely that the two largest mainstream opposition parties will withhold their support for the extension, forcing the government to rely on a narrow majority to pass the resolution. This is an exceedingly controversial maneuver in the consensus-oriented Danish parliamentary tradition and, while the narrow majority appears achievable, it is by no means a sure thing. Public support for the Danish deployment to Iraq has dropped, especially as fallout from the Mohammed cartoon crisis has caused some voters to question whether Denmark should be involved anywhere in the Muslim world (Ref B). The announcement today of a ten percent reduction in British coalition forces will also affect Danish public perceptions. ¶4. (C) The Danish government's current game plan to extend the mandate starts with the publication in late April of an Iraq policy paper to frame parliamentary deliberations on the resolution. This "white paper" will examine ways in which Denmark's military and civilian contributions in Iraq should be changed to meet Iraq's evolving stabilization and reconstruction needs. Danish officials already have begun work on the paper's conceptual outline, but do not expect to start drafting the document until mid-April. -------------- Danish Interest in U.S. Insights -------------- ¶5. (C) MFA Director for International Security Policy Kim Jorgensen told Pol/Econ Counselor March 10 that the Danish government would be interested in hosting Iraq consultations with U.S. military and civilian officials. The Danes are interested in meeting with officials who can provide authoritative insight into U.S. planning as well as respond to specific political and operational queries. Jorgensen said the MFA, just as it did for Deputy Senior Advisor on Iraq Deutsch's visit (Ref C),would convoke appropriate Danish officials from relevant ministries and offices for detailed consultations and arrange for courtesy calls on senior Danish officials. In light of the Danish timetable, the period in which the U.S. can have maximum influence is right before that time, the week of April 3. -------------- Recommendation -------------- ¶6. (C) Consultations, and the public awareness that we continue to consult closely with Denmark, are vital to keeping one of our most steadfast partners in Europe fully engaged in Iraq. Embassy strongly endorses the Danish request for an interagency USG team to meet with their Danish counterparts during the first week of April in Copenhagen. This would be an ideal opportunity to help ensure continued Danish support for our shared goals in Iraq. The USG team would also have the opportunity to influence and shape Danish decision-making in Iraq, including revisiting potential Danish interest in providing the UN Mission in Iraq (UNAMI) with a dedicated C-130 starting in fall 2006. In addition, Embassy recommends that such a team be prepared to do some media outreach while in Copenhagen. It would also be useful for senior U.S. officials to make themselves available to Danish journalists in the run-up to the Danish parliament's Iraq vote at the end of May. CAIN