DANES WANT TO AVOID "TRAIN WRECK" ON TURKISH EU

C O N F I D E N T I A L COPENHAGEN 001555 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/2016 TAGS: PREL EUN TU CY DA SUBJECT: DANES WANT TO AVOID "TRAIN WRECK" ON TURKISH EU ACCESSION REF: STATE 189542 Classified By: Pol/Econ Counselor Bill Mozdzierz, reasons 1.4b,d ¶1. (C) Summary: Denmark agrees that the current row over Turkish RELATIONS with Cyprus should not be allowed to result in Turkey's exclusion from the EU accession process, Danish MFA Director for EU Enlargement Lars Bo Moller declared to us November 22, even as the Danish government maintains that Turkey must bear some consequences for its failure to live up to its obligations to the EU. Moller was skeptical about the prospects for a negotiated solution in advance of the December 14-15 European Council meeting, but indicated that Denmark will work within the EU for a moderated response. Danish officials continue to engage the parties in support of the Finnish EU presidency's efforts, Moller reported, observing that Greece seems to recognize the importance of keeping Turkey in the accession process, and might even prove helpful in restraining Nicosia. End summary. ¶2. (C) Like most EU member states, Moller explained, Denmark wants to prevent the Turkey issue from dominating the European Council meeting, where a more politicized approach is all but certain. Unfortunately, he noted, the prospects are not great for the Finns to succeed in the next few weeks where so many others have failed. Moller observed that both the Turks and the Cypriots have drawn red lines on the same issue (Varosha),apparently precluding any agreement. Some compromise on opening ports may yet be possible, he allowed, and certainly the Danes have been encouraging the parties to seize these remaining opportunities (most recently during last week's meeting here between FM Per Stig Moller and Turkish EU negotiator Ali Babacan),but it now appears increasingly likely that the EU will have to decide on its response to Turkish noncompliance. ¶3. (C) Moller suggested that the debate in the EU will center on the number of acquis chapters to suspend, with member state preferences running from the UK's three (the ones most closely related to customs union) to perhaps all 35 in the case of Cyprus. Many countries, Moller said, such as Germany and Denmark, will be somewhere closer to the British position, favoring suspension of a few additional chapters but not so many as to force the Turks to conclude that the overall process is in jeopardy. Moller indicated that his government's conversations with the Cypriots suggest that they understand the danger of provoking Ankara on one level, but find the temptation to overplay the EU card simply too strong to resist. Athens is more realistic, he remarked, maintaining that the Greek government recognizes its strategic interest in keeping Turkey engaged in the accession process; Moller suggested that the Greeks may make the difference in persuading Cyprus not to press this issue to its limits. ¶4. (C) Danish officials are also keen to avoid a situation in which Turkish PM Erdogan sits "fuming" in Ankara while EU summit participants deliberate, Moller said, remarking that the Turks might make matters worse by suggesting that Turkey can do without the EU. Erdogan may even see some POLITICAL advantage in withdrawing from the process, Moller feared. ¶5. (C) Moller emphasized that Denmark will do what it can to help moderate the EU's approach, maintaining that the Danish government supports Turkey's accession despite many concerns and the unpopularity of that position. It is in everyone's interest to ensure that this situation not degenerate into a "train wreck," he said. It is imperative, however, that Turkey meet its obligations and demonstrate its readiness for membership, Moller argued; likewise, the EU must show that it will not accept sustained failure to adhere to the rules. CAIN