DENMARK ON UPCOMING GAERC

C O N F I D E N T I A L COPENHAGEN 001389 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/13/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV EU DA SUBJECT: DENMARK ON UPCOMING GAERC REF: SECSTATE 170214 Classified By: Pol/Econ Counselor Bill Mozdzierz, reasons 1.4b,d ¶1. (C) Summary: Danish MFA European Correspondent Michael Bach Petersen told us October 13 that next week's GAERC will seek conclusions on Sudan, the Western Balkans, the Middle East, Iran, Georgia, and North Korea. Petersen pointed to emerging EU splits on Sudan, Kosovo and Zimbabwe that could manifest themselves in ministers' discussions, while noting that deliberations on Iran and North Korea will be driven by ongoing Security Council negotiations. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Sudan: Petersen said the EU consensus for now still favored "quiet diplomacy." Denmark wants to see continued pressure on Bashir to accept a UN force, but Copenhagen also increasingly senses a desire on the part of some member states for a "pragmatic" approach to UNSCR 1706. According to Petersen's understanding, this might involve an "AMIS plus" type force along the lines of that recently constituted for Lebanon, where some governments wanted a brand new monitoring force but in the end settled for "UNIFIL plus." Petersen stressed that Denmark, both within the EU and as a current UNSC member, continues to support and advocate for full implementation of 1706, including the transition from the AU force to a robust UN peacekeeping force. ¶3. (C) Zimbabwe: Petersen also referred to emerging division within the EU on Zimbabwe. Some member states are increasingly dissatisfied with the EU's refusal to speak to Zimbabwe, which they complain limits the EU's Africa Dialogue to Troika consultations rather than full summits with all representatives present. Southern EU members (including France),according to Petersen, want a broader engagement in the Africa Dialogue on immigration from North Africa, and claim that the more limited Troika format prevents this discussion. Denmark is standing with those, including the UK, who wish to keep Zimbabwe away from the EU-Africa Dialogue, but Petersen noted this GAERC should give an indication of whether or not the EU intends to maintain the status quo. ¶4. (C) Western Balkans: Petersen remarked that member state debate is intensifying as the "hour of truth" in Kosovo approaches. Spain, Petersen claimed, is resisting an imposed solution on Serbia, afraid of the precedent it might set for the Basques. Others, Petersen continued, are wondering whether Ahtisaari should not be given "additional time" to reach a solution, especially given proposed December elections in Belgrade. Denmark fully supports Ahtisaari and sees no reason to drag out his mission, since Belgrade would be unlikely to use the extra time constructively, Petersen said. ¶5. (C) Middle East/Iran: Petersen said Denmark sees little movement on most Middle East issues and added that ministers' discussions on the Middle East and Iran would likely be driven by reports due out early next week. The head of Solana's policy unit, Helga Schmidt, was still in Lebanon trying to wrap up discussions there on implementation of UNSCR 1701 and seeing where the EU might be able to offer additional help. On Iran, Denmark continues to favor a tough response to Tehran's nuclear program, but one that keeps the Security Council united. ¶6. (C) Georgia: Petersen said that ministers will call on both Georgia and Russia to exercise restraint. Again, here, too, there are differences of style and emphasis, with EU member states neighboring Russia naturally favoring a tougher line toward Moscow. Denmark considers Russia's recent actions in Georgia "very serious" and "disproportionate." ¶7. (C) North Korea: Petersen acknowledged that GAERC consideration of North Korea will be informed by ongoing discussions in New York. Petersen here, too, stressed that Denmark wants to see a united Security Council take strong action, adding that Denmark and the EU will want to continue humanitarian assistance for the North Korean people. CAIN