GUINEAN MILITARY SEES BROAD SECURITY MANDATE;

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 CONAKRY 000094 SIPDIS USEUCOM JIC VAIHINGEN GE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/27/2016 TAGS: PREL KDEM PGOV MASS GV SUBJECT: GUINEAN MILITARY SEES BROAD SECURITY MANDATE; AMBIGUOUS SIGNALS ON INTERVENTION DURING PRESIDENTIAL TRANSITION CONAKRY 00000094 001.3 OF 004 Classified By: DCM Julie Winn for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (S) On January 24, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Defense (DASD) Theresa Whelan met with Prime Minister Cellou Dalein Diallo and then with senior military officers to discuss regional stability and bilateral military cooperation. ¶2. (S) DASD Whelan delivered a strong message to Guinean military leaders that U.S. assistance would be compromised if the military intervened in an extra-constitutional manner in the presidential transition. Guinea's highest-ranking military officers responded that their mandate is to ensure Guinea's territorial integrity and guarantee the safety and survival of the Guinean people -- a broad view that would permit significant flexibility of action. They underscored, however, that the Guinean armed forces are and will remain loyal to the republic. ¶3. (C) The delegations also reviewed areas for potential U.S. military cooperation. End Summary. -------------- Prime Minister Focuses on Costs of Regional Instability -------------- ¶4. (C) Prime Minister Diallo expressed gratitude for the long and productive military relationship between Guinea and the U.S, citing U.S. political, diplomatic and military support to ward off the incursion by Charles TaylorQs forces in 2000-2001. The Prime Minister recalled that President Conte has dispatched him to Washington to seek the USGQs support just after Charles Taylor and the RUF invaded Guinea. DASD Whelan noted that the program to create and train GuineaQs Ranger battalion was successful because both parties had brought something to the table. ¶5. (C) The Prime Minister focused on the need for collaboration to secure peace in the sub-region. He perceived the region as a whole, where actions in one country directly affected the others. He said the successes we enjoy now in Sierra Leone and Liberia reinforce the values of freedom and democracy, which in turn support peace in the region. Guinea remains open to engagement and wants to strengthen these values, he said. DASD Whelan recognized the important role that Guinea plays in the region and noted that the U.S. is taking a regional approach by focusing on the development of the ECOWAS stand-by force. ¶6. (C) The Prime Minister underscored the economic costs of regional instability -- GuineaQs previous World Bank and IMF programs fell off track because of the high national defense expenditures it was forced to make to repel Charles TaylorQs aggression. This had a disastrous effect on GuineaQs fiscal and monetary indicators, triggering the economic and social crisis that continues today. Since Guinea had fallen off track with the IMF, budgetary support was suspended and, even worse, Guinea had not qualified for HIPC debt cancellation. ¶7. (C) The Prime Minister asked for DASD WhelanQs views on Cote dQIvoire. She expressed concern with the stalemate that continues to cause an economic, political, and social drain on the region. The Prime Minister noted the unwillingness of Ivoirian President Laurent Gbagbo to compromise. The only way to relieve the stalemate would be to force Gbagbo to Qplay the gameQ or to remove him from the equation, he said. -------------- - Guinea Brings out the Big Guns to Request U.S. Assistance -------------- - ¶8. (C) Twenty of GuineaQs highest-ranking military officers, average age approximately 65, flanked by about 15 somewhat younger junior officers, received DASD Whelan, her team, and the Ambassador at the Ministry of Defense. MOD Director of Cabinet (and de facto Defense Minister) Colonel Kandet Toure echoed the Prime MinisterQs gratitude for U.S. military engagement, the training of officers under IMET, and the assistance to Guinea in the defense of its borders. Colonel Toure averred that GuineaQs army is CONAKRY 00000094 002.2 OF 004 neither aggressive nor out for domination, but that it must be ready for any situation. ¶9. (C) To this end, the Army Inspector General, Colonel Ibrahima Diallo, outlined a wish list covering six areas of critical need where U.S. assistance would be most helpful. -- The militaryQs first priority is preparing for its contribution of a 750-strong infantry battalion to the ECOWAS stand-by brigade. The Guinean military requested U.S. assistance to prepare its battalion in the areas of health (laboratories and ambulances),communications (HF, VHF, and walkie-talkies),subsistence (clothing, bedding, furniture, and allowances),civil engineering (training and equipping a transportation unit; cranes, and small tools). Five additional areas for potential mil-to-mil cooperation included: -- renovation of airfields in border areas to prepare for troop deployment; air security equipment; -- infrared, night-vision, and GPS equipment to improve the Guinean militaryQs capacity to control its borders with Cote dQIvoire and Liberia; -- maintenance and repair of GuineaQs naval assets, e.g., barges, patrol boats; -- communications equipment, both fixed and mobile stations; -- training of trainers for the Ranger battalion. Col. Diallo added that civil-military relations are also critical to their mission. ¶10. (C) DASD Whelan noted that the U.S. had already provided equipment and medical training to the Ranger battalion. While the U.S. has made an investment in the Rangers, additional training for them is not readily available at this time. However, she added, there are potentially several areas where the U.S. can assist. For example, due to the U.S. commitment to the African Union and the ECOWAS stand-by force, we will seek ways to help make GuineaQs contribution effective. ¶11. (C) DASD Whelan recalled our commitment to repair the dry dock we supplied in 1991. She thought that we might be able to contribute to the maintenance of U.S.-provided patrol boats. She said, with DODQs focus on maritime security and control of territorial waters, we welcome GuineaQs efforts to build a capable navy. Whelan praised the militaryQs effective use of the IMET program, reflected in GuineaQs rank as the fifth-largest recipient of IMET funds in sub-Saharan Africa. She said we would explore ways to expand IMET. Whelan and the Guineans agreed that they look forward to increasing the cooperative mil-to-mil partnership. -------------- Leaders Warned of Consequences of Military Interference -------------- ¶12. (S) Following the large session, the U.S. side requested a more restricted meeting. In attendance were four of GuineaQs top military officers: General Kerfalla Camara, Chief of Defense Staff; General Alhousseiny Fofana, Advisor to the Ministry of Defense; Colonel Kandet Toure, de facto Minister of Defense; and General Kaba 43 Camara, Chief of the Army. The U.S. side consisted of DASD Whalen, the Ambassador, Colonel Victor Nelson, and Pol/Econ Chief Jessica Davis Ba (note taker). ¶13. (S) DASD Whelan noted that when we discuss future engagement, it is critical also to address potential impediments to collaboration. She expressed optimism about the future of the region, including Sierra Leone and Liberia. Even with the continued problems in Liberia, the U.S. believes in and is committed to lasting stability in the Mano River region. Continued U.S.-Guinea military cooperation is critical to this progress, she said. ¶14. (S) Alluding to the presidential transition, DASD Whelan stated that at some point in the future, Guinea will face a significant change in its political landscape. (Comment: It was clear to all parties that DASD Whelan was CONAKRY 00000094 003.2 OF 004 referring to the eventual death of President Conte.) At that point, the Guinean military would have important decisions to make. All Guineans, GuineaQs neighbors, as well as the United States and the world, would closely watch these decisions. ¶15. (S) DASD Whelan emphasized that she had been personally involved in all decisions regarding U.S. military assistance to Guinea since the late 1980s (Comment: Generally suspicious and rebuffing Q outsideQ interference, the officers responded favorably to WhelanQs personal involvement and experience with Guinea.) DASD Whelan said that, as a friend to the Guinean military, she wanted to be sure all parties were aware that any military actions with regard to the presidential succession outside the framework of the constitution would trigger negative consequences from the United States. We would be compelled to suspend U.S.-Guinea cooperation in almost all sectors, including military cooperation. DASD concluded, QYou will make your decisions, but I must explain clearly that certain decisions will compromise our cooperation.Q -------------- -- View from Top Brass: Mandate is Defense of the People -------------- -- ¶16. (S) The military leaders took detailed notes with no perceptible reaction when DASD Whelan broached this once taboo topic. They clearly understood the AmbassadorQs verbatim translation of WhelanQs remarks and the warning against military intervention. General Kerfalla Camara then removed his glasses, sat back in his chair and made his first comments of the afternoon: QThe Guinean army is and will remain republican,Q i.e., the Army is an institution of the Republic of Guinea, governed by its laws. ¶17. (S) General Kerfalla continued, QSince its creation in 1958, the army has not been one of conquest or repression, but one that acts in the exclusive service of its people. Our mandate is to guarantee the safety and survival of GuineaQs citizens. This army was called upon to reestablish peace in Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea Bissau, and since 1960 we have ensured stability in the region. The president (Conte) is a real soldier. He has instructed us not to overstep one inch of our border unless invited by that neighboring country.Q Kerfalla repeated, Q Since its creation, the mission of GuineaQs military is to defend the security of our people and its borders. In training our soldiers to fight, it is only for the benefit and protection of our people. The mandate of the armed forces is to defend its people. We have no other ambition.Q ¶18. (S) Colonel Kandet Toure said he appreciated the sincerity and openness of DASD WhelanQs message and that he could not improve upon General KerfallaQs response. QWe can assure you, those who are here before you are officers who have taken an oath to the people of Guinea. General KerfallaQs statement represents the position of each member of our party. We will be more vigilant now so that we can handle any situation which may arise.Q Colonel Toure invited closer and more permanent communication, suggesting that the U.S. might see dangers that Guinean military leadership itself is not aware of. We are at your disposal, he said. Colonel Toure also alluded at one point to his imperfect knowledge of what was happening Qamong the lieutenants.Q -------------- -------------- Colonel Toure Clarifies His View of the ArmyQs Role -------------- -------------- ¶19. (S) While onboard the C-12 with DASD Whelan from Conakry to Kankan, the Ambassador spoke with Colonel Kandet Toure (a) to ensure that DASD WhelanQs message the previous day had fully registered and (b) to probe further about what the Guinean military leadership meant by the phrase Q we are and will remain a republican army.Q ¶20. (S) Colonel Toure said that Guinea needed peace as a prerequisite for its social and economic development. Toure said he also Qneeded peaceQ because he did not, as a senior military official, want to find himself facing conflict in his own country. The examples of neighboring Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Cote dQIvoire had convinced CONAKRY 00000094 004.2 OF 004 everyone of the disastrous consequences of civil conflict. ¶21. (S) Referring to DASD WhelanQs message the previous day, the Ambassador said that the U.S. was not singling Guinea out and that the U.S. policy against coups and extra-constitutional transitions applies broadly, as evidenced by our position on Mauritania. Colonel Toure said he understood. ¶22. (S) The Ambassador said that the term Q republican armyQ (armee republicaine) used by General Kerfalla the previous day was difficult to translate precisely into English. He asked Colonel Toure what, in his view, the term implied. Toure responded that a Q republican armyQ is one that remains loyal to the people, respectful of the laws of the land, and defends the countryQ s territorial integrity. The Ambassador asked specifically whether the laws of the land, in Colonel ToureQs view, included the constitution. Toure responded, QOf course.Q -------------- - Government Leaders Also Focused on Maintaining Stability -------------- - ¶23. (U) At a reception hosted by the Ambassador, DASD Whelan and her team had the opportunity to engage with civilian leaders, including President of the National Assembly (and constitutional successor to the President of the Republic) Aboubacar Sompare and Minister of Territorial Administration Kiridi Bangoura. The most senior military leaders attended the reception as well. ¶24. (SBU) DASD Whelan and Sompare discussed developments in the region and the possibilities for increased trade with Liberia now that it has turned over a new leaf. Sompare noted that the economic development of Guinea was directly linked with that of its neighbors. Cote dQIvoire remains the dark spot on the horizon. Sompare emphasized the heavy toll of Ivoirian refugees and the risk of compromise and instability in the border region. ¶25. (SBU) Kiridi Bangoura spoke about the December local elections and his recent travel to all of GuineaQs regions to consolidate lessons learned. The most important challenge, he said, was educating the winners and losers on their role in a democratic system and the role all actors must play in the success of newly elected municipal and local governments. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶26. (S) As highlighted by President Lansana ConteQs granting a rare meeting the next day (septel),the Guineans viewed DASD WhelanQs visit as an important chance to engage with the U.S. on bilateral military cooperation. Moreover, there is increasingly open discussion and sub rosa maneuvering in Guinea regarding the once taboo subject of the inevitable presidential transition. The challenge is to ensure that such planning -- whether by the military or civilian political leaders -- remains constitutional and constructive. The Guinean military heard DASD WhelanQs message. The Guinean militaryQs view of their mandate is very broad, however, and may be broad enough to justify in their eyes a range of actions when Conte dies or even before. Colonel ToureQs remarks about the armyQs respect for the laws of the land, including the constitution, were somewhat reassuring, but he may not have the last word. ¶27. (U) This cable was cleared by DASD Whelan. MCDONALD