SRI LANKA: INITIAL REPORTS OF IDP OUTFLOWS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000696 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR SCA, SCA/INS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/20/2014 TAGS: PREF PTER PHUM CE SUBJECT: SRI LANKA: INITIAL REPORTS OF IDP OUTFLOWS REF: A. COLOMBO 686 ¶B. COLOMBO 672 ¶C. COLOMBO 661 Classified By: James F. Entwistle, Charge' d'Affaires, a.i. 1.4(b,d) ¶1. (SBU) Summary. April 27 reports by the pro-Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) website TamilNet alleging that as many as 40,000 civilians have fled the Trincomalee District since the Sri Lanka Military carried out aerial bombing raids cannot be confirmed. Trincomalee's Government Agent estimates the number of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) at 43,000 persons, a number that UNHCR says is greatly inflated. UNHCR believes 12,000 to 15,000 be a more realistic, but as yet unconfirmed, figure. End summary. -------------- HARD TO MISS 40,000 PEOPLE -------------- ¶2. (U) Following April 25-26 retaliatory air strikes by the Sri Lankan military at Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) targets in the eastern district of Trincomalee (ref A),pro-LTTE website TamilNet issued a claim, subsequently picked up by international news wire services, that 40,000 Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) had left their homes in the district and taken shelter in places of worship, schools, and with relatives. The LTTE's humanitarian wing, the Tamil Rehabilitation Organization (TRO),released an April 26 statement claiming more than 30,000 persons have fled Sampur and other areas in Trincomalee District. The TRO claimed their rescue and relief efforts have been severely hampered by "extensive and continuous shelling and bombing." ¶3. (C) On April 27 military sources told DATT there is no indication of refugee flow out of Trincomalee. The source also reported that everything is calm in Trincomalee, with all entry and exit points open, and that the A9 highway to Jaffna had opened as well. Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) Chief Ulf Henricson said publicly in Trincomalee on April 27 that reports of 40,000 displaced were "exaggerated." SLMM spokesperson Helen Olafsdottir told poloff monitors had met eastern LTTE leader Elian today and patrolled LTTE-controlled Sampur. -------------- INGOs Gather Reports -------------- ¶4. (SBU) A UNHCR update issued late April 26 noted that a report from the Government Agent (GA) in Trincomalee District of 10,718 families (or approximately 43,000 individuals) being displaced could not be confirmed and "significantly exceed(s) earlier findings." A UNHCR representative told poloff on April 27 that the GA's estimate is greatly inflated and more likely ranges between 12,000 and 15,000, 3,000 from Trincomalee town itself. (Note: As of April 21, UNHCR had confirmed more than 2,700 people displaced by recent communal violence in Trincomalee.) Information from the Mutur Divisional Secretary (the site of some of the April 25-26 attacks) estimated the number of displaced as 8,333 prior to the April 25 air attack and 15,000 persons total as of April ¶27. UNHCR estimates 8,300 persons fled Trinco before the air attack of April 25, and 7,000 to 8,000 afterward. As movement had been restricted to Mutur until April 27, UNHCR will mobilize a unit April 28 to assess basic humanitarian need and hopefully provide a more accurate estimate of IDPs. ¶5. (C) An International Committee for the Red Cross (ICRC) representative in Trincomalee told poloff that as of April 27 ICRC teams have been permitted to access "uncleared," or LTTE controlled areas. Two teams dispersed to the north and south of Trincomalee on April 27 can confirm no IDP figures yet, but estimate there are about 7 make-shift IDP camps in the area. They expect to be able to estimate IDPs fleeing to COLOMBO 00000696 002 OF 002 temples and schools shortly, but the number of persons fleeing to relatives' homes will be more difficult to assess. ICRC's representative in Batticaloa confirmed that his teams have also been permitted to enter uncleared areas April 27 to evacuated civilians wounded in aerial bombing and ground fire. He also noted unsubstantiated reports of civilians displaced from Trincomalee beginning to trickle into northern Batticaloa district, though he would not have any figures before 28 April. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶6. Comment. (C) While civilians have no doubt fled the areas of violence in the past few weeks, as large a population as that reported by Tamil Net would be hard to miss by international NGOs and the military over the past three days. The pro-LTTE propaganda machine may be exaggerating estimates in order to argue that the Government of Sri Lanka (GSL) has unleashed uncalled for violence on civilians. The true number of displaced probably varies between 10,000 and 15,000, according to our most reliable sources. Now that security forces have allowed access to LTTE-controlled areas, UNHCR and ICRC will be able to provide more accurate accounts of the numbers of people fleeing, and we will report accordingly. With IDP populations remaining in camps in the north and east from displacements two decades ago, Sri Lanka can not afford another such crisis. End Comment. ENTWISTLE