PROMISE OF CEASE-FIRE TALKS STANCHES FLOW OF

UNCLAS COLOMBO 00200 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PTER PHUM PREF CE SUBJECT: PROMISE OF CEASE-FIRE TALKS STANCHES FLOW OF TAMILS FROM POTENTIAL BATTLEFIELDS REF: A. COLOMBO 0142 ¶B. CHENNAI 0103 SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Data recently released by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) office in Colombo shows that the flow of Tamils out of potential conflict areas in northern Sri Lanka was much higher than the Government of Sri Lanka (GSL) or the Sri Lankan Army (SLA) had reported. District administrators confirmed the larger numbers but indicated that the January 25 announcement of talks to strengthen the Cease-Fire Agreement (CFA) had reduced the flow significantly. The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) inflate the numbers, while the central government and the Army minimize the number of displaced. Interviews with the displaced revealed the common themes of harassment by security forces. END SUMMARY I WISH I WAS IN VANNI -------------- ¶2. (SBU) At the quarterly asylum and refugee meeting of the UNHCR on January 31 in Colombo, the senior protection officer presented an overview of displaced persons from the north and east. The total displacement since the December escalation in violence was calculated to be 3,596 families, which include over 2,200 from Jaffna and surrounding areas. (Note: The UNHCR calculates four persons to a "family", 3,596 x 4 = 14,384) The Jaffna Government Agent, K. Ganesh, told poloff during a February 1 meeting in Colombo that some 1,470 families had left Jaffna since the December escalation in hostilities, with the majority of families going to the LTTE controlled Vanni. ARMY DOWNPLAYS DISPLACEMENT -------------- ¶3. (SBU) During a January 10 briefing by the SLA in Jaffna, the Army briefer had estimated only 300 families had left Jaffna, dismissing most of them as LTTE martyr families or otherwise sympathetic to the LTTE (Ref A). When asked on February 1 about the movement of Tamil families out of government-controlled areas, an Army spokesman said that the SLA did not keep accurate records on who left, but estimated some 1,500 families had left over the last two months. ¶4. (SBU) As reported by Chennai, (Ref B),77 Sri Lankans had returned to India in just seven days in January. The UNHCR reported that Sri Lankans arriving in India from Mannar and Jaffna districts, many of them having just been repatriated from India in the last three years, had increased that number to over 300 by the end of January. ¶5. (SBU) UNHCR in Colombo reported that field interviews with displaced persons in India and Sri Lanka reveal similar patterns: Tamils feel they face increasing harassment and hostilities at the hands of security forces, particularly during searches after an attack by the LTTE. Many Jaffna Tamils who had been displaced to the Vanni during the conflict years lack an SLA-issued ID card and reported being harassed by the Army as LTTE supporters. Others from Jaffna claimed that the restrictions on fishing had made their livelihoods impossible. GIMME SHELTER -------------- ¶6. (SBU) In Sri Lanka's restive Trincomalee District, over 1,200 families have displaced themselves to local schools and temples since late December. Unlike the north where Tamils face constant pressure from security forces, the communal tensions between Tamils, Muslims and Sinhalese, as well as the guns of the LTTE, SLA and breakaway Karuna faction of the LTTE, created a maelstrom of violence and uncertainty in Trincomalee before the announcement of the Geneva talks. Recent communal violence between Muslims and Tamils, as well as attacks by SLA and the Karuna faction around the town of Muttur, have displaced over 600 families within LTTE-controlled territory, according to UNHCR and local officials. Curiously, the displaced in Trincomalee try to stay close to their houses often occupying them by day and sleeping in schools at night, which could indicate a fear of targeted violence by night and a fear of squatters if their houses are unoccupied by day. IT'S NOT A TRAGEDY, IT'S A PROPAGANDA TOOL -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Since the escalation of violence in December, the LTTE mouth-piece website Tamilnet.com has been raising fears of an upcoming conflict by painting an exaggerated picture of a mass exodus to the Tiger-controlled territory in the Vanni. Conversely, the GSL has downplayed reports, often citing them as LTTE propaganda or under reporting the numbers. According to the International Committee for the Red Cross (ICRC),which monitors crossing points between government and LTTE controlled areas, there has been no surge in traffic crossing the checkpoints that would substantiate these reports. In fact, when tensions are particularly high, people stay off the roads, preferring to hunker down in their houses rather than travel, according to the ICRC. COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Although there is no evidence of a mass exodus, 3,596 families conservatively represents over 14,000 newly displaced people in the last 60 days and illustrates the precariousness of the Cease-Fire Agreement (CFA) and the popular fears that a resumption of hostilities could be imminent. Deadly LTTE attacks on the military in the North and East have heightened security force suspicions of the local residents in those areas, resulting in increased cordon and search operations, which in turn alienate the public. If this cycle continues (much will depend on the February 22-23 talks in Geneva),further population dislocations could result. LUNSTEAD