SRI LANKA: LTTE CLAIMS A WIN IN ENGAGEMENT ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001692 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/13/2016 TAGS: PREL PTER PHUM PREF MOPS CE SUBJECT: SRI LANKA: LTTE CLAIMS A WIN IN ENGAGEMENT ON JAFFNA DEFENSE LINE REF: COLOMBO 1670 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Charge' d' Affaires James R. Moore for reasons 1.4(b,d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Over 100 Sri Lanka Army (SLA) soldiers and an unknown number of Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) cadres were killed in a two-day battle at the Forward Defense Line (FDL) in Muhamalai, Jaffna October 11-12. This was the highest one-day death toll since the 2002 ceasefire agreement (CFA). The Government of Sri Lanka (GSL) has described the engagement as "defensive," but appear to have lost an unexpected number of soldiers. Pro-LTTE media played up the engagement as representing a major GSL offensive. However, no credible reports indicate an SLA attempt to push towards LTTE-controlled Elephant Pass at the neck of the Jaffna peninsula. The LTTE said the operations would endanger peace negotiations planned for October 28-29 in Geneva. However, Defense Ministry spokesperson Keheliya Rambukwella told the media that the military would continue to mount "defensive operations" as necessary. End Summary. Fighting at the Forward Line -------------- ¶2. (C) Military spokesman Brigadier Prasad Samarasinghe confirmed to PolOff that the SLA continued to fire mortar and artillery rounds on LTTE targets at Muhamalai for a second day on October 12, aided by Sri Lanka Air Force (SLAF) bombing raids. He said that both the GSL and LTTE had returned to their original FDL positions following the battle, however. Also on October 12, according to Samarasinghe, two suspected-LTTE claymore bombs exploded in Jaffna town, killing three pro-government Eelam People's Democratic Party (EPDP) "bicycle cadres" and two policemen. High Casualties Unexpected -------------- ¶3. (C) As of October 13, GSL officials estimated the October 11-12 death toll at between 129 and 133. The LTTE claimed that more than 200 SLA soldiers had been killed. The GSL, in turn, claimed to have killed 200 Tiger cadres. One GSL source told us on October 13 that between 500 and 1000 soldiers had been wounded, and that the death toll also probably exceeded official estimates. Military spokesman Brigadier Prasad Samarasinghe told PolOff on October 12 that 78 troops comprising "a whole company" were missing -- and presumed dead in light of the LTTE's claim to have the bodies of 74 soldiers. On the evening of October 12, the LTTE handed over 74 bodies to the International Committee for the Red Cross (ICRC). TNA Sees Major Offensive -------------- ¶4. (C) In an October 12 press conference, pro-LTTE Tamil National Alliance (TNA) Members of Parliament Gajendrakumar Ponombalam and Suresh Premachandra touted the battle as an LTTE victory, claiming the LTTE had "successfully repelled" the SLA. Ponnombalam urged the Co-chairs and the international community to "take concrete steps" to pressure the GSL to halt its "military agenda" and warned that the action had diminished prospects for peace talks. A Time for Restraint -------------- ¶5. (C) COMMENT: It appears likely that GSL security forces attempted to consolidate their gains on the FDL before the October 28-29 peace talks. The Sri Lankan Army may have been trying to take out LTTE artillery positions about 5 kilometers behind the front line. However, counter to recent trends, the Tigers appear to have acquitted themselves well on this occasion. The apparent LTTE success may serve to COLOMBO 00001692 002 OF 002 deflate some of the Sri Lankan military's bravado about their recent string of successes against the LTTE. In any case, any further escalation of hostilities would further undermine the basis for a meeting in Geneva at the end of October. In this context, the Department spokesperson's well-timed statement calling for restraint received broad media play here, appearing on the front pages of both English-language and vernacular newspapers. We should lose no opportunity to reinforce this message in the coming days. The visit of A/S Boucher on October 19 and 20 will present another occasion to try to rein in some of the more belligerent elements on the government side. MOORE