SRI LANKA: FINNISH AND DANISH MONITORS PREPARE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001246 SIPDIS SIPDIS GENEVA FOR RMA E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/14/2016 TAGS: PREL PTER PHUM MOPS CE SUBJECT: SRI LANKA: FINNISH AND DANISH MONITORS PREPARE FOR WITHDRAWAL AS WATER-RELATED MILITARY ACTION ON TIGER TARGETS CONTINUES REF: COLOMBO 1149 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: James F. Entwistle, Charge' d'Affaires. 1.4(b,d) ¶1. (C) Summary. The government mounted a significant ground operation July 31 after Sri Lanka Air Force (SLAF) strikes on Liberation Tiger of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) targets continued through the weekend, with air-strikes killing eight lower-level Tiger leaders in the eastern Batticaloa and Trincomalee districts as the government tried to resolve a water dispute south of Trincomalee. The Tigers responded with ground fire and mid-level Tigers have declared the cease-fire over. Meanwhile, EU-member monitors from Finland and Denmark announced they were prepared to exit the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) by September 1. Sweden announced it would stay pending further discussion as Norwegian special envoy Hanssen-Bauer prepares to address the SLMM issue with the Tigers during a visit at the end of this week. The military's water-access justification for the air raids seems poorly timed as the Finns and Danes posture (we think) for the Tigers to give in on their position against EU-member monitors. We will continue to urge restraint, as we did over the weekend. End Summary. Ground Battle Leaves Three SLA Troops Dead; Air Raids Kill Eight Eastern Tiger Leaders -------------- ¶2. (C) Three Sri Lankan Army (SLA) soldiers were killed and six injured in a confrontation with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) the morning of July 31 as the SLA sought to gain control of an irrigation canal in Trincomalee district, the military spokesman told emboff in a July 31 phone conversation. According to a Tamil news station, 40 LTTE cadres died in the battle. The Tigers had blocked a water-sluice providing water to Tamil and Muslim civilians in government-controlled areas south of Trincomalee (reftel), prompting the SLA ground offensive, the first since the 2002 Ceasefire Agreement was signed. As of mid-day local time July 31, SLA troops were half a kilometer from the sluice gates and heavy fighting continued. The LTTE reportedly evacuated 2000 civilians from the area July 30-31. ¶3. (C) The fighting on the ground followed four days of Sri Lankan Air Force (SLAF) bombings in the northeast that began July 26 in response to the water sluice issue. According to LTTE spokesman Daya Master, as of July 29, air raids hit areas of Batticaloa and Trincomalee, killing eight Tiger leaders at the LTTE's "Tenaham Conference Center" and up to twenty others at the Tiger base 24 km from Batticaloa. The LTTE fired mortars at security forces in Trincomalee district on July 28, and seriously injured four Sri Lanka Army (SLA) soldiers, a police constable and a civilian in separate grenade attacks in Point Pedro (Jaffna) and Batticaloa. Also on July 28, police discovered the body of Police Constable Jeyarasa Jeyabala Rajendran, allegedly abducted by the Tigers, on a road outside of Ampara. ¶4. (C) Reuters reported SLAF jets dropped bombs on July 28 within 750 meters of a building in which Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) head Ulf Henricsson was meeting with LTTE leadership near Trincomalee, quoting Henricsson: "We sat talking and got clearance from the government and tried to convince the LTTE to have confidence in the government. They dropped a bomb in the vicinity. That's not the right signal." Henricsson also told Reuters: "In reality they (the parties) have more or less terminated the ceasefire agreement in their actions. I don't think either side has the capacity for a full-scale war (but) there is a risk the violence will spread to Colombo." ¶5. (C) LTTE Trincomalee district political head S. Elilan sent a letter July 29 to Henricsson, according to a July 30 COLOMBO 00001246 002 OF 003 Tamilnet report, claiming the SLAF air strikes and Sri Lanka Army (SLA) artillery attacks since July 26 amount to "a Declaration of War by the Government of Sri Lanka against the LTTE. It is now appropriate for the SLMM to declare publicly that the ceasefire agreement is not holding." Elian told a press conference on July 29: "We will definitely retaliate." In a July 31 phone conversation with emboff, pro-LTTE Tamil National Alliance (TNA) Member of Parliament (MP) for Trincomalee district R. Sampathan said "Shelling and bombing of LTTE areas presently being carried out by security forces is tantamount to a declaration of war by the government. Therefore, it is the duty of the SLMM to state the CFA is not currently being observed." Military Calling The Shots -------------- ¶6. (C) Charge' spoke with Foreign Secretary Palihakkara late evening July 29. The Charge' noted that Washington was concerned that the air raids marked a change in strategy that might put the Tigers in a position to retaliate dramatically. Palihakkara answered that he and other civilian members of the National Security Council had expressed similar concerns in a meeting earlier that day; President Rajapaksa and the military, he said, had maintained that air raids were still in response to the water crisis (refetel),and that the air raid on the Tiger base in Batticaloa district was justified by intelligence that indicated the LTTE was preparing to send reinforcements from the target area in Batticaloa to re-block the water sluice. Press statements issued by the Ministry of Defense and Peace Secretariat July 29 maintained the same reasoning, saying: "As part of the overall operation, air support was provided in terms of neutralizing identified targets impeding the progress of the ground action and preventing the possible deployment of reinforcements from Batticaloa area." ¶7. (C) Norwegian special envoy Hanssen-Bauer told Charge' July 30 via telephone that the Peace Secretariat had advised the district SLMM monitors to stay in their offices and not go into the field. (This was lifted later in the day.) Hanssen-Bauer mentioned media reports of troop movements into LTTE-controlled territory and said Erik Solheim would try to speak to President Rajapaksa that day to try to turn around the rapid decline of the ceasefire. ¶8. (C) Charge' reviewed the bidding late July 31 with Norwegian Ambassador Hans Brattskar who had just returned from leave in Norway. Brattskar said that in his discussions during the day with the GSL and the LTTE he had found both sides "militarily confident." The GSL says its troops are about to reach the key sluice gate and the Tigers say they are holding the government troops off. Brattskar said the SLMM had offered the view that the two sides will fight it out. Moreover, the monitors are extremely frustrated with both sides since, in their view, neither is much concerned about the civilians caught in the middle. Brattskar said he had told LTTE Peace Secretariat chief Pulidevan that their water cutoff was "unacceptable" and was making them look bad although, Brattskar conceded, "Pulidevan may care how the Tigers look but the number one guy probably doesn't." Brattskar said he is trying to confirm with Oslo that a Solheim/Rajapaksa phone call has taken place. Norwegian peace envoy Jon Hanssen-Bauer is still expected on the morning of August 4. He and Brattskar will quickly head north to Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mulaitivu and perhaps Trincomalee before returning to Colombo to confer with the government early next week. Brattskar also noted that he had unconfirmed reports from NGOs and the UN of SLAF air strikes in the Mulaitivu which, if confirmed, would belie the government's assertion that all ongoing military operations are in connection with the "water incident." COLOMBO 00001246 003 OF 003 ¶9. (C) Poloff met Army Commander General Fonseka on July 31 at Army headquarters. (The commander just returned to active duty after a three-month recovery in Singapore following a suicide-bombing attempt on his life in April.) Fonseka told poloff the Tiger blockage of the sluice had already ruined 28,000 acres of fertile paddy fields and that he couldn't comment on a time line for the current military operations. He claimed the LTTE had laid new anti-personnel mines in the area approaching the sluice, which had "caused quite a few casualties this morning." When asked about the status of the Ceasefire Agreement, Fonseka said: "Did the LTTE have a ceasefire in the past months?" Finnish and Danish Monitors Announce Pull Out -------------- ¶10. (C) EU-members Finland and Denmark announced late July 28 that their monitors would accede to the Tiger demand that they leave the five-nation member Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission. Sweden said its monitors would remain for the time being. The Finns, Danes and Swedes comprise 40 of the 57 monitors, which also include Norway and Iceland. Norwegian Embassy spokesperson Tom Knappskog told the press July 29 that the main purpose of special envoy Hanssen-Bauer's visit to Sri Lanka next week would be to discuss the SLMM issue. ¶11. (C) The Government of Sri Lanka (GSL) reacted angrily to the EU-member pull out announcements. Defense spokesman Keheliya Rambukwella told BBC on July 29 the GSL was "against any unilateral move to reconstitute the mission." He later told the Sunday Times (July 30): "The decision will mean they are caving into a demand of a terrorist group, giving the wrong signal." Peace Secretariat head Palitha Kohona told the Sunday Island (July 30): "To cow down to an organization which has been banned worldwide as a terrorist group sets a precedent which might be unmanageable in the future." Comment -------------- ¶12. (C) Comment. We aren't convinced the Finns and Danes will actually pull out, but rather think they've announced they're "getting ready" in order to call the Tigers' bluff, as the LTTE would clearly be worse off without a fully-functioning SLMM. Hanssen-Bauer may well be able to turn the Tigers around on this issue, although the government's military actions won't help. The government has a legitimate responsibility to restore water flow into agricultural areas south of Trincomalee but we (and many others) worry that the military-dominated approach by President Rajapaksa may make it hard for the Tigers to show flexibility when Hanssen-Bauer shows up later this week. Moreover, while the government insists all military action at present is related to the water incident, the air attack in Batticaloa seems to us to be pushing that envelope. The bottom line is that military and civilian hawks seem to have Rajapaksa's ear at present; the Foreign Ministry and the Peace Secretariat freely admit they are being informed after military action occurs rather than being included in preliminary discussions. We will continue to urge careful thought and restraint, as we did over the weekend. End Comment. ENTWISTLE