MALDIVES: REFORMS MOVING IN RIGHT DIRECTION,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001132

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/11/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM MV
SUBJECT: MALDIVES: REFORMS MOVING IN RIGHT DIRECTION,
ALBEIT SLOWLY

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JEFFREY J. LUNSTEAD FOR REASONS 1.4 (b) and (
d)


1. (SBU) Summary: The Ambassador visited Male' July 6
to pay farewell calls on President Gayoom, Maldivian
government officials, and the Chairman of the
opposition, currently under house arrest. All
interlocutors focused on a possible referendum on
presidential versus parliamentary forms of government,
the potential for dialogue between the government and
the opposition, and the pace of the reform process.
While democratization is moving slowly, it is
proceeding in the right direction and may receive a
boost if moderates in the government and opposition
continue to maintain dialogue. End summary.

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PRESIDENCY VS. PARLIAMENT:
REFERENDUM?
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2. (SBU) On July 6 the Ambassador visited Male' to pay
separate farewell calls on President Maumoon Abdul
Gayoom, Defense Minister Ismail Shafeeu, Attorney
General Hassan Saeed, Minister of State for Foreign
Affairs Abdullah Shahid, Minister of Information and
Arts Mohamed Nasheed, and opposition Maldivian
Democratic Party (MDP) Chairperson, also named Mohamed
Nasheed (nicknamed Anni),currently under house
arrest.


3. (C) All interlocutors focused on the surprising
June 18 parliamentary decision to hold a national
referendum on a presidential versus parliamentary
system of government. A Maldivian government employee
who is an independent Member of Parliament (MP)
suggested the referendum, which was approved by only
two votes. Attorney General (AG) Saeed said only 3
cabinet ministers favored the referendum while other
government supporters sought to agree on a single
system before opening the discussion to the populace.
Defense Minister Shafeeu lamented, "You can't go back
to the people with the job you are supposed to do!"
However, all of the ministers noted it was very
difficult to publicly vote against such a populist
measure. Shafeeu said that the only two
presidentially-appointed MPs who voted in favor of the
referendum said they "didn't want it to look too ugly"
with all of the President's supporters opposing the
measure.


4. (C) President Gayoom also expressed some
reservations about the referendum, noting that the
parliamentary decision was vague in calling for the
government to educate the public as to the pros and
cons of either system. He also said that his DRP
(Maldivian People's Party) had held extensive
discussions and concluded that a presidential system
would provide the most stability. The President's
comments echoed Shafeeu's assertion that most
government officials supported an executive presidency
with a legislative parliament acting as a "watchdog"
to provide checks and balances. Shafeeu expressed
concern that anti-incumbency sentiment could influence
the results of a vote on the system of government,
while AG Saeed said, "If the government is smart," it
will include a number of questions within the
referendum in order to elicit desired results.


5. (C) With each speaker, the Ambassador noted the
difficulties of a referendum and the possibility of
skewed results depending on how the question is
framed. Government officials agreed, adding that the
proposed referendum will delay the reform agenda. The
Ambassador asked whether a solution could be found in
which the question could be narrowed, perhaps with
prior parliamentary discussions and an endorsement of
one system. The ministers were unsure but hoped that
was a possibility.

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POTENTIAL FOR CROSS-PARTY DIALOGUE
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6. (C) All interlocutors also addressed the
possibility of dialogue between the government and the
opposition Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP). Foreign
Minister Ahmed Shaheed and other officials met with
MDP representatives at the British High Commissioner's
residence in Colombo June 24. (Note: We have heard
that a second round of direct talks is tentatively
scheduled for September in Colombo, this time perhaps
facilitated by the EC Ambassador. End Note) President
Gayoom noted that such "unofficial" talks could lead
to formal dialogue, which would benefit the reform
agenda. Defense Minister Shafeeu stated that the
detention of MDP chairperson Anni and human rights
activist Jennifer Latheef should not act as impediments
to discussions, adding, "In a dialogue, the government
would make concessions." Information Minister Nasheed
said it would be important to look for a way to "save
Anni" while permitting both sides some political cover.


7. (C) AG Saeed said he sought cooperation with the
MDP, especially on the legislative agenda. He said he
was holding discussions with government and MDP MPs to
garner broad support for a new penal code, drafted by
American law professor Paul Robinson with funding from
the UN, which had been introduced to parliament at the
end of June. Saeed was hopeful the code, which
incorporates elements of Shari'a with human rights
protections and modern rule of law principles, could
pass without being mired in committee. Saeed also
said he has encouraged the MDP to couch its requests
to the government in terms of international best
practices, so "we can justify it to our hard-liners."


8. (C) MDP Chairman Anni, accompanied by MDP vice-
president and former SAARC Secretary-General Ibrahim
Hussain Zaki, and MDP MP Hassan Afeef, was predictably
less enthusiastic about dialogue between the two
parties in his discussions with the Ambassador. The
MDP representatives claimed that most of the reform
legislation in parliament sought to codify current
poor practices, with the penal code as the only
positive exception. Anni noted that the MDP had to
"hit hard" in order to carve out a space for freedom
of expression, and he feared that if he held public
discussions with the government, he would lose his
constituency's confidence. Nevertheless, in a July 5
meeting with poloff, MDP MPs Mohamed Didi and Mohamed
Shihab indicated that informal cross-party talks could
lead to broad agreement and a speedy parliamentary
"rubber stamp" of effective legislation, and perhaps
eventually lead to consensus on a new constitution.

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REFORMS MOVE FORWARD, BUT SLOWLY
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9. (C) President Gayoom said, "We've been very genuine
in our work toward ushering in modern democracy,"
adding, "the prospects are good." The AG and
Information Minister both cited some examples of
progress. Saeed said the Maldives Human Rights Commission
should soon be codified under legislation commensurate with
the "Paris Principles", and noted that former Chair Ahmed
Mujthaba had made overtures to return to his post.
Saeed added that he was also seeking to establish a
police integrity commission. Nasheed noted that his
Ministry had accepted the recommendations of the
international media advocacy NGO "Article 19" in
improving press freedom legislation, and also said he
was looking to offer opportunities for private radio
and television stations within 3 months.


10. (C) Nevertheless, Defense Minister Shafeeu said
the reform process "is dragging on much more slowly
than we had hoped." The improvements the AG and
Information Minister discussed have been under way for
over six months with no concrete results as yet. The
Judicial Services Commission, formed in November 2005

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in order to strengthen judicial independence, is still
determining its rules of procedure and has not yet
taken up case work, according to the AG. MDP
representatives expressed frustration at the slow pace
of reform, noting a number of their supporters are
still in detention after a spate of arrests for
"unlawful assembly" at the end of May.


11. (C) In his meeting with President Gayoom,
Ambassador emphasized (as he did in all other
meetings) our support for the reform process. He said
that we believed change was inevitable in Maldives,
and if the President worked to make it positive, he
would leave a new open political system as his
enduring legacy to the country to match the tremendous
economic progress that Maldives had made over the last
25 years. Gayoom thanked the Ambassador and the US
Government for its support of this process.

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COMMENT
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12. (C) Comment: Regardless of the manner in which
the referendum on the system of government proceeds,
it seems clear that substantive discussion on reform
is taking place within parliament, within political
party circles, and perhaps most importantly, between
the government and the MDP. While legislative
deadlock and clashes between the opposition and the
government have slowed the pace of reforms to date,
the current level of informal communication between
the two sidesis a positive sign. Broad agreement on
the new penal code could pave the way for moderates on
both sides to continue working together to further
entrench the reform agenda. End comment.
LUNSTEAD