UNDERCURRENTS, CONFIDENCE BOTH WEAK IN NORTH

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHIANG MAI 000211 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV TH SUBJECT: UNDERCURRENTS, CONFIDENCE BOTH WEAK IN NORTH REF: CHIANG MAI 169 CHIANG MAI 00000211 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. (SBU) Summary. The government's decision to retain martial law in most of northern Thailand Nov. 28 evoked little reaction here beyond concern from the Chiang Mai Chamber of Commerce for the province's image. Political contacts see little reason to maintain restrictions, but were not surprised that the post-coup government suspects continued loyalty to former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in his home territory. Chiang Mai's previous governor, accused of "excessive loyalty to Thaksin," has been transferred to a less prestigious post. Most community radio stations are back on the air, but staying clear of political talk. End summary ¶2. (SBU) Confidence in the post-coup government is low, with many northerners noting the failure to fulfill the coup's stated objectives. However several local officials described their work as easier since the coup, a welcome contrast to the amount of control exercised over their offices by MPs during Thaksin's time. ¶3. (SBU) Contacts in Nan, Phrae, and Chiang Mai denied the oft-stated accusation of "political undercurrents" favoring Thaksin in the region, while readily accepting paranoia over his possible return. Chiang Mai Provincial Administrative Officer (PAO) Thawatwong na Chiengmai confirmed but downplayed the occasional appearance of leaflets that accused the current government of planning to cancel various populist programs, such as the 30 baht health scheme, introduced by Thaksin. An analyst from the National Intelligence Agency's (NIA) northern office agreed that these leaflets constitute the only tangible opposition to the coup. He described martial law as more symbolic than operational, serving mainly as a warning against any possible counter-coup action. -------------- Choosing constitution drafters -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Locally elected PAOs such as Thawatwong were designated as one of the groups to help select 2,000 members for the National People's Assembly as a first step in drafting a new constitution. Dr. Chanchai Silapaouychai, Provincial Administrative Officer in Phrae, described joining 76 other elected provincial heads in Bangkok to choose 36 colleagues for the assembly. Noting that the group initially came up short, with only 32 instead of 36 nominees for the assembly, Dr. Chanchai suggested that the government's failure to fulfill the coup's objectives combined with expectations of a Thaksin comeback contributed to reluctance to participate. Thawatwong, who attended the same gathering, offered a different explanation. As an elected official, he noted that the rule barring the final group of 100 constitution drafters from running in elections for two years discouraged most politicians from participating. He expressed doubt that Thaksin would return anytime soon, although he conceded that "Thaksin won't give up". -------------- Out with the old -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The expected transfer of Chiang Mai's Governor, Suwat Tantipat, was announced Oct. 31 and effected 10 days later. Most Chiang Mai contacts expressed sympathy for the man, whom they regarded as being punished for simply doing what was required of him as the senior government representative in Thaksin's home province. In a convoluted effort to show respect without suggesting resistance to the new regime, the Chiang Mai business community arranged a hasty reception for the departing governor on Nov. 7. Several hundred people attended, even though the invitations were faxed that afternoon. ¶6. (SBU) In a surprising show of candor with the CG, a hold-over Chiang Mai Vice Governor praised several Thaksin-initiated programs, including the now-abolished CEO Governor budget. Asked for examples of how the budget was used effectively in Chiang Mai, he cited the "clean and green" campaign that has placed flowers and decorative constructions on city streets and sidewalks - albeit provoking objections from irritated pedestrians as well as those who view monumental pink plastic tulips as a waste of money. Another fan of the CEO Governor budget claimed that the system was effective in increasing the flow of government assistance for flood-hit provinces in the past. Without this budgetary authority and related MP involvement at the provincial level, bureaucratic procedures have slowed assistance to the impacted areas in the lower North, he noted. Taking the other side of the argument, Dr. Chanchai decried the effects of the CEO budget scheme in Phrae, detailing projects dictated by MPs that included building a mango-drying plant in a non-mango-producing province and coercing farmers to grow jasmine rice in a sticky rice-growing area. -------------- No politics please--- CHIANG MAI 00000211 002.2 OF 002 ¶7. (SBU) Most community radios that were closed following the coup resumed operations several weeks later after agreeing to conditions relayed by Third Army representatives (reftel). Many adjusted their behavior as a condition of reopening; according to a local print journalist, community radio stations know that on-air political discussion is taboo. ¶8. (SBU) Chiang Mai's only all-English station TITS (Tourist Information and Travel Services) 106.5 FM recently parted ways with its entire native English-speaking staff, leaving only Thai employees to broadcast a mix of pop music and community announcements. Former DJs told ConOff that the owner encouraged them to leave in part due to concerns that English-language broadcasts were attracting the interest of military units. The station's Thai owner informed foreign employees that military officials had visited the station several times since it returned to the air in October and that he was eager to discourage any further attention into the station's affairs. The station will now operate with a lower profile, employees said, balancing less frequent on-air English conversations with near-simultaneous Thai translations or Thai-only dialogue by Thailand-born DJs. ¶9. (SBU) Comment: Repeated remarks by Bangkok officials about political undercurrents in the north appear to be based more in the government's paranoia than in reality. While a few journalists and academics grumble about constraints on political expression, some officials and others state the coup helped ease a difficult situation. Most people are playing it safe for now, possibly waiting to see which way the wind blows. CAMP