FEARS OF THAKSIN'S RETURN FOCUS ON NORTHERN BORDER

UNCLAS CHIANG MAI 000193 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL TH SUBJECT: FEARS OF THAKSIN'S RETURN FOCUS ON NORTHERN BORDER REF: BEIJING 23354 ¶1. (SBU) Summary. Northern Thai contacts dismissed as groundless rumors that former Prime Minister Thaksin plans to re-enter the country from China via Thailand's the northern border. The 3rd Army is seen as a likely source for the widely reported stories, either as a way of testing the waters for lifting martial law or to justify continuing martial law. End summary ¶2. (U) Continued speculation about Thaksin's whereabouts and supposed plans to return to Thailand took a northern turn this week as Thaksin traveled to China Nov. 1, reportedly on private business (reftel). A weekend visit to Chiang Mai by coup leader General Sonthi Boonyaratkalin and most of his Council for National Security (CNS) colleagues helped fuel rumors that something must be afoot in the northern region, considered to be home base for Thaksin and his Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party. --- Slow boat from China?--- ¶3. (SBU) Both a Bangkok Post reporter based in Chiang Mai and a former TRT Chiang Rai MP believe the army is behind rumors that Thaksin is trying to sneak back into the country via the northern border. By strengthening security measures along the Lao and Burma borders, the army gave credence to the idea that Thaksin might try to return to Thailand along a route that carries a whiff of illegal trafficking through the Golden Triangle. Both sources questioned why Thaksin would go to the trouble of traveling overland or via the Mekong River rather than flying home, considering that he would end up under "special escort" in either case. ¶4. (SBU) The Post reporter dismissed theories that CNS chief Gen Sonthi's weekend visit to Chiang Mai had anything to do with Thaksin's whereabouts. During a Nov. 4 meeting, Gen Sonthi, accompanied by Assistant Army Commander-in-Chief and CNS Deputy Secretary-General Gen. Saprang Kalayanamitra, said that his SIPDIS visit was aimed at briefing units with border responsibilities, notably the Pha Muang Task Force and the 5th Special Forces regiment, about broader tasks under the new legal framework for the Internal Security Operations Command (ISOC). Under this expanded authority and enlarged definition of national security, these units' reach will no longer be limited to five kilometers along the border but will cover the entire military region. ¶5. (U) Gen. Sonthi's Chiang Mai stay, which included a golf outing, a Buddhist ceremony, a visit to a fortune teller and a tour of the newly opened Royal Flora Ratchapruek exposition, was also seen as an effort to gauge public sentiment in Thaksin's northern stronghold. ---No sign of undercurrents--- ¶6. (SBU) The former MP, who remains a TRT party member, interpreted the rumors about Thaksin and reports about counter-coup "undercurrents" in the north as excuses for the military to extend martial law. He told ConGen staff that neither he nor his community supporters in Chiang Rai had seen any sign of so-called undercurrents in Chiang Rai, Thailand's northern-most province, or any pro-Thaksin leaflets. While some local politicians have capitalized on the situation to attack their opponents as remnant pro-Thaksin or anti-coup elements, even this has been on a small scale, he said. ¶6. (SBU) Comment: Fear of Thaksin's return is keeping the generals on alert. As long as the army and the CNS worry that Thaksin could outflank them, they are reluctant to give up the security blanket of martial law. Ironically, the image of the deposed prime minister as a political Houdini able to escape back into Thailand at will also strengthens his profile as a powerful presence who could return to a significant role in the country's future. CAMP