THIRD ARMY COMMANDER CHALLENGES THAKSIN'S NORTHERN POWER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CHIANG MAI 000120 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 7/27/2016 TAGS: PGOV TH SUBJECT: THIRD ARMY COMMANDER CHALLENGES THAKSIN'S NORTHERN POWER BASE REF: CHIANG MAI 216 (05) (NORTHERN ASSIGNMENTS SHOW STRONG HAND OF THAKSIN) CHIANG MAI 00000120 001.2 OF 002 CLASSIFIED BY: Bea Camp, Consul General, Consulate Chiang Mai, State. REASON: 1.4 (d) ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The highest ranking military figure in northern Thailand, 3rd Army Commander Lt. Gen. Saprang Kalanamit, has been making headlines and winning bouquets with a series of speeches and appearances that stake out a confrontational political position in opposition to caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. End summary ¶2. (C) Saprang, who gained his appointment last October despite Thaksin's effort to install one of his Pre-Cadet School classmates in the job (reftel),made his first public move against Thaksin and his Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party in early July by instructing army radio stations in the 17 northern provinces under 3rd Army jurisdiction to broadcast politically oriented messages. These messages included quotes from Saprang's earlier speeches expressing concern for the country's situation and his expectation for an accountable and credible government. The stations also broadcast announcements affirming the 3rd Army as "soldiers of the King who are prepared to stand by the people". This line, "We are soldiers of the King" has become the catch-phrase of the whole affair, repeated in a sign posted in front of a military camp north of Chiang Mai and used as a headline by the International Herald Tribune's "Thai Day" section on July 22. ¶3. (SBU) Similar speeches, announcements, press releases, and comments that have emanated from the feisty 3rd Army commander this month included announcements by mobile public relations units under the Phetchabun-based 1st Cavalry Division, a July 6 speech at Rajabhat Phitsanulok University, a July 12 meeting with Phitsanulok residents and a Senator-elect, a July 13 message to a TRT MP advising against organizing any pro-TRT/Thaksin civic actions that would lead to political polarization, a July 18 meeting with the President of Naresuan University, and July 25 remarks to supporters. YOU CAN'T TELL THE GOOD GUYS BY THEIR SHIRTS -------------- -------------- ¶4. (U) As reported widely in Thai media, Saprang's tough talking remarks have emphasized his own stance as a "professional soldier", affirmed his political neutrality and warned against falling victim to political agitation and mobilization by certain political elements. To the President, and by extension the students, of Naresuan University, Saprang noted his "commitment to serve the nation in general rather than any particular individual", stated that "those wearing yellow shirts nowadays include both good and bad guys" and criticized Thai politics as "under-standard and our democracy fake, without any political leadership." ¶5. (C) In his most direct statement, Saprang lashed out publicly on July 20 against a "bad guy" military officer widely known to be his 3rd Army deputy, Major Gen. Manat Pao-rik. Manat, a classmate of Thaksin's in the Pre-Military Cadet School Class 10, was widely expected to be promoted to 3rd Army Commander last October, over the more senior Saprang. In a July 20 press release, Saprang complained that this "bad guy" has used political connections for his own career benefit at the expense of national interests. Saprang and Manat have been at odds for some time but the final straw was Manat's comment in Thai Post newspaper July 19 criticizing Privy Council chairman Gen Prem Tinsulanond and Saprang. Manat claimed that Saprang was creating a division in the country and implied that Saprang was planning a coup. TIT FOR TAT TACTICS -------------- ¶6. (C ) On July 18, Saprang assigned several 3rd army officers from Phitsanulok to northern provinces, especially Thaksin's home province of Chiang Mai, to discourage local TRT operatives from promoting shows of support for Thaksin. Anti-Thaksin political commentators noted gleefully that Saprang was turning on TRT the same tactics that party used in the 2001 and 2005 elections to dampen rival political organizing, e.g. roadside checks of vehicles carrying opposition canvassers. In this case, Saprang's action is expected to weaken any TRT efforts to flex its muscle with the local population. ¶7. (C) Military observers reported that Saprang's moves were intended to stymie pro-Thaksin forces in any coup effort and were coordinated with those in the northeastern 2nd Army Area and the July 19 reshuffle at the Battalion level in the 1st Army Area. With the North as well as the Northeast a major base for Thai Rak Thai in the previous two elections, Saprang's recent speeches and other activity are aimed at undermining that support on both the military and civilian front. CHIANG MAI 00000120 002.2 OF 002 COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) Saprang, who never fails to refer to himself as an honest patriot when voicing his opinion to the Consulate on matters ranging from his son's visa to his desire for a tougher Thai approach to Burma, has struck a receptive chord with many senior officers who believe they were ill-treated by Thaksin advancing his classmates from the Armed Forces Preparatory Academy Class 10. Saprang's associates said that the general had spoken out before but that his intensity increased enough to reach the public eye after Thaksin's remark about a "charismatic individual", widely believed to be directed at General Prem. ¶9. (C) Media as well as military reaction to Saprang's outburst has been positive, with supportive messages and flowers flowing to 3rd Army headquarters in Phitsanulok and media accounts portraying Saprang as a hero. Some otherwise anti-Thaksin individuals remain uneasy, however; although no one has spoken out publicly on the issue, one human rights advocate told the Consul General that he is uncomfortable with the military taking on a political role. In any case, Saprang has chosen his timing well. With General Sonthi as incumbent army chief and Thaksin's power over the military now reduced, Saprang is unlikely, at least in the short term, to be disciplined for speaking out. CAMP