TAMIL NADU ELECTION: DRAMATIC CHANGES AS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHENNAI 000393 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PINR PTER IN SUBJECT: TAMIL NADU ELECTION: DRAMATIC CHANGES AS CAMPAIGN BEGINS REF: CHENNAI 0062 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: With Tamil Nadu state assembly elections slated for May 8, intense political activity is changing the shape of party alliances. Vaiko, an LTTE supporter (Reftel) and fiery orator, has led his party out of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) fold to join hands with his former foe, Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa. She has also roped in to her coalition the Dalit Panthers of India (DPI),another party which supports the LTTE. If, after the elections, these parties' support turns out to be critical for the survival of a future government of Jayalalithaa, she might tone down her aggressive rhetorical opposition to the LTTE, but substantive changes in the state's opposition toward the LTTE are unlikely. The MDMK's departure from the DMK fold could lead to the ouster of its four MPs from the UPA coalition at the Center. END SUMMARY -------------- NO PERMANENT ENEMIES, NO PERMANENT FRIENDS -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Long the scene of dramatic politics, Tamil Nadu is seeing major changes in its battle lineup for the May 8 elections. On March 4, Vaiko, the supreme leader of the MDMK (Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam) party announced a parting of ways with the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) alliance. Joining hands with Chief Minister Jayalalithaa and her AIADMK party, Vaiko endorsed her view that "there are no permanent enemies or permanent friends in politics." In July 2002, Jayalalithaa jailed Vaiko for 19 months under the now-lapsed Prevention of Terrorism Act on charges of supporting the banned Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). All that is now relegated to the past, including Vaiko's own campaign against Jayalalithaa's "fascist regime," as he termed it upon his release from jail. -------------- VAIKO TO POST: "THEY BLACKED ME OUT" -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Vaiko told Post by telephone on March 6 that his decision was due to the deliberate suppression and humiliation of his party by the DMK. He complained that ever since he was released from prison, the DMK's television channel, SUN TV, had been blacking out all news of him and his party. Vaiko mentioned that DMK chief Karunanidhi, if he were to win the election, might decide to hand over the reins of the government and party to his son Stalin, an outcome obviously not to Vaiko's liking. But Vaiko told Post, "That was not the key factor behind my decision, it was the harassment. I am a fighter, you know, I cannot stand the humiliation". Another benefit for Vaiko is the fact that under his agreement with Jayalalithaa, Vaiko's MDMK party will contest 35 seats as opposed to the 22 seats he was offered by the DMK leadership. -------------- WILL VAIKO CONTINUE IN UPA? SONIA TO DECIDE -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Vaiko's MDMK party has four Members of Parliament, who support the UPA government at the Center. Vaiko wants to continue support for the UPA, but the DMK, also a part of the UPA coalition, has already demanded ouster of the MDMK from the alliance. "It is up to Sonia Gandhi, the UPA chairperson to decide whether we continue in the UPA or not," said Vaiko. "In any case, we do not have any ministers at the Center," he said, meaning there is little for him to lose if he were to be thrown out of the alliance. -------------- DALIT PANTHERS: ANOTHER PARTY IN JAYA'S KITTY -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The AIADMK party, which was in total isolation until recently, has now also brought on board another ally, the Dalit Panthers of India (DPI). DPI is a party of the formerly untouchable caste of "Parayas" and is led by a young LTTE supporter, Thirumavalavan. Several northern districts of Tamil CHENNAI 00000393 002 OF 002 Nadu have significant presence of this low caste group and their presence can be used to counter the DMK's alliance with the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK),a party of the Vanniars, a dominant caste group in the same districts. Union Health Minister and PMK leader Anbumani told Post that although his party wanted the DPI to be accommodated within the DMK-led alliance, the DMK would not have them for fear that the PMK and DPI together "would form a formidable combination in north Tamil Nadu". -------------- -------------- DMK PUTS UP BRAVE FACE; FIELDS SONIA TO START CAMPAIGN -------------- -------------- ¶6. (SBU) In public statements, the DMK has put up a brave face on the bolting by the MDMK. In private conversation with Post, however, DMK leader and Member of Parliament Shanmughasundaram (protect) acknowledged that Vaiko's decision would make a dent in its coalition. "MDMK has 3-4 percent committed voters, " he said. Additionally, Vaiko's departure deprives the DMK of one of their major campaign themes against Jayalalithaa: misuse of the Prevention of Terrorism Act. "Vaiko is a good campaigner. We will miss him in the elections. Now with his going over to the other side, how can we complain of his unlawful detention?" Shanmughasundaram asked. However, Shanmughasundaram expressed confidence that as long as the DMK, the Congress and the PMK stand together, along with the Communist parties and the Muslim parties, the coalition will remain formidable. ¶7. (SBU) The DMK hosted Sonia Gandhi at the party's State Conference in Tiruchi on March 5, to kick off the election campaign. She showered praise on DMK chief Karunanidhi and the union ministers from Tamil Nadu and urged the DMK cadre to ensure that the people are freed from the AIADMK misrule. -------------- -------------- JOURNALIST BELIEVES JAYA HAS MORE GROUND TO COVER -------------- -------------- ¶8. (SBU) According to senior journalist of the Hindustan Times, G.C. Shekhar, the "accrual of strength in recent days" has greatly improved Chief Minister Jayalalithaa's election prospects. He, however, believes that the DMK alliance still has a lead over Jaya's group by 60-40 percent. That will change if Jayalalithaa is able to further expand her alliance to include the matinee star Vijayakant's new "DMDK" party. Shekar acknowledged that there is no major anti-incumbency sentiment prevailing in the state - a huge factor that could turn the public mood in Jayalalithaa's favor. -------------- ALL IS FAIR IN WAR AND TAMIL NADU POLITICS -------------- ¶9. (SBU) COMMENT: In the unlikely event of Jayalalithaa's AIADMK party being critically dependent on her pro-LTTE allies for formation of government, it is conceivable that she would tone down her aggressive anti-LTTE rhetoric. Still, circumscribed as it is by the central government's policies on the issue, the state's tough policy toward the LTTE is unlikely to change. A possible exit of the MDMK's four MPs from the Central UPA coalition would mean some -- but no great -- loss to the Union Government. The common man does not seem to be bothered by the apparent incongruities in the alliance between the AIADMK and the MDMK, bitter opponents in the recent past. In Tamil Nadu, where political battles are passionately fought and equally passionately followed by the public, all seems to be fair in war and politics. END COMMENT HOPPER