SCA/INS DIRECTOR BERNICAT ENGAGES SOUTH INDIAN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHENNAI 002308 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER IN NP CE SUBJECT: SCA/INS DIRECTOR BERNICAT ENGAGES SOUTH INDIAN INTERLOCUTORS ON SRI LANKA/NEPAL CONFLICTS ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Political analysts Lt. General V.R. Raghavan and ¶N. Sathiya Moorthy agreed that prospects for the upcoming October 28 talks were somewhat encouraging between the Government of Sri Lanka (GoSL) and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) during discussions on October 5 with visiting South and Central Asia Bureau Office Director for India, Nepal and Sri Lanka Marcia Bernicat. Both expressed doubt, however, that the Sinhalese majority was ready to share power with the Tamil and Muslim communities. Both agreed that domestic politics consigned India to playing a strategic behind-the-scenes role to avoid a political backlash in the south and prevent rising resentment in both countries. Raghavan did not think violent conflict in Nepal is imminent and advised, based on his peacekeeping experience in Sri Lanka that it is more important to move quickly to holding well-monitored elections than on focusing so completely on disarming the Maoists. Both agreed that continued conflict makes both countries vulnerable to harboring terrorist activity that could threaten India, and that the U.S. and India should continue to complement each other's efforts to support the peace processes. End Summary. ¶2. (U) During an October 5 visit to Chennai, Marcia Bernicat, Director for India, Nepal and Sri Lanka in the South and Central Asia Bureau discussed the conflicts in Sri Lanka and Nepal with Lt. General V.R. Raghavan, President of the Center for Security Analysis (CSA) and former Director of Military Operations in the Indian Army, who oversaw the deployment of forces and peacekeeping operations in the region. Bernicat also met with Mr. N. Sathiya Moorthy, Honorary Director of the Chennai chapter of the Observer Research Foundation (ORF,) at which she spoke on U.S. relations with South Asia. ¶3. (SBU) General Raghavan, who has met Prabakharan, believes military and international community pressure will force the LTTE chief back to the negotiating table, but argued the Sri Lankan government must offer concessions that will enable the LTTE leadership to sell the peace process to its cadre. Raghavan said he has advised the Sri Lankans not to press for additional military gains, fearing that the Army's recent successes have led officials and their supporters to think a military solution is now possible. He is concerned the Sinhalese majority remains incapable of sharing power, but said the proposal contained in the Indo-Sri Lankan Accord of July 1987 remains a viable starting point for talks. Sathiya Moorthy of the ORF told Bernicat that getting the two principal political parties in Sri Lanka to come to a consensus was an essential condition for talks, but he creatively suggested that the peace process could be significantly advanced by re-directing the activities of both antagonists - the LTTE cadre could be absorbed by forming a Tamil regiment in the Sri Lankan Army, and the government could contribute to United Nations peace keeping operations. ¶4. (SBU) Regarding Nepal, General Raghavan argued that Maoist leader Prachanda wants to move political power out of the hands of the upper caste elite leaders of the Kathmandu Valley, but not by mounting a military offensive, especially in the coming weeks. He would not rule out Indian military intervention, but thought it highly unlikely. The General noted that it was the Nepalese people, not the Maoists, who unseated the King and that a power vacuum remains. Based on his experience with India's peacekeeping operation in Sri Lanka, Raghavan cautioned that the disarmament process is more "theatre" than effective and that the international community should move to well-monitored elections quickly to help fill the political void in Nepal. In his opinion, talks will need to address distribution of economic as well as political power throughout Nepal, in part because Prachanda will need to be assured his followers will be able to support themselves. Raghavan suggested the Indian government could address this by funding a pension plan for the armed Maoist cadres in addition to providing development assistance for regions outside the Kathmandu valley. ¶5. (SBU) Both General Raghavan and Sathiya Moorthy are concerned the conflicts in Nepal and Sri Lanka can be exploited by Pakistan and extremists to carry out terrorist attacks in India. They pointed to reports of Kathmandu being a transit point for terrorists involved in the recent Mumbai blasts. Sathiya Moorthy fears disaffected Muslim youth in Sri Lanka will become radicalized and recruited by "jihadist" groups. They argued India and the U.S. would have to cooperate to ensure these conflict zones do not become havens for terrorists. ¶6. (SBU) Comment: Raghavan and Sathiya Moorthy agreed coalition politics require India to work behind-the-scenes to help resolve the conflicts in Sri Lanka and Nepal, and that India and the U.S. could complement each others' efforts in the peace processes. End Comment. CHENNAI 00002308 002 OF 002 ¶7. (U) Office Director Bernicat cleared this message. HOPPER