ZULIA GOVERNOR PROBES FOR USG SUPPORT TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 000882 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/31/2021 TAGS: PGOV PHUM ELAB KDEM SCUL VE SUBJECT: ZULIA GOVERNOR PROBES FOR USG SUPPORT TO OPPOSITION CANDIDATE CARACAS 00000882 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Robert Downes, Political Counselor, for Reason 1.4(b). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Zulia Governor and possible presidential candidate Manuel Rosales asked the Ambassador March 30 what kind of support the USG was willing to give to the opposition given President Hugo Chavez' overwhelming advantage in the December 3 presidential elections. The Ambassador outlined Embassy efforts in supporting pro-democracy NGOs and social programs. The Ambassador and Rosales also discussed the possibility of the three presidential hopefuls -- Rosales, Petkoff, and Borges -- making an international tour in April-May to Europe, the United States (or Canada),and perhaps Brazil to raise awareness about the problems facing democratic institutions and, specifically, the electoral process. Rosales praised the recent decision to re-open a permanent U.S. diplomatic presence in Maracaibo. He also opined on celebrity Zulians Francisco Arias Cardenas (don't trust him, Chavez doesn't) and Archbishop Ubaldo Santana (might talk now that there's a new Cardinal). End summary. -------------- Cuba With a Democratic Coat of Paint -------------- ¶2. (C) At his request, Zulia State Governor Manuel Rosales, one of Venezuela's two opposition governors, met with the Ambassador and acting Polcouns March 30 at the Embassy. Rosales described Venezuela's current political and social state as "chaotic" amidst the deterioration of democratic institutions. He said President Hugo Chavez was transforming Venezuela into a replica of CUBA but with a facade of democratic rule. Rosales decried the traditional opposition, noting that the days of the Coordinadora Democratica, with its broad umbrella for Chavez opponents, were over. He said the only reason that he has been able to make progress in his own state is due to the incompetence, negligence, and corruption of the Chavez administration. He lamented, however, that the opposition could not compete with Chavez, who brings the full power of the state to bear in the political fight ("like fighting a missile with a slingshot"). -------------- A Single Candidate By June Or July -------------- ¶3. (C) Rosales said he was in town to meet with other presidential contenders Julio Borges and Teodoro Petkoff. He said he hoped to come to some arrangement whereby a single opponent from among them is selected to face Chavez in December. He hoped the decision on a unified candidate could be made in the June-July time frame. Rosales said the conditions at the National Electoral Council (CNE) were poor for transparency but added that some opposition groups are demanding too much from the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (BRV). He said just a few basic conditions would be necessary: no fingerprint machines, no electronic registries, and some percentage of manual counting as a check against the Smartmatic automated system. The opposition should not set too many conditions. -------------- How Can The USG Help? -------------- ¶4. (C) Faced with such an uphill fight, Rosales asked what kind of support the USG would be willing to give. The Ambassador half-joked that, based on conversations with the other two opposition pre-candidates, complete public silence was perhaps the perfect gift. He added that the USG would CARACAS 00000882 002.2 OF 002 continue to support the electoral NGOs Sumate and Ojo Electoral, though in a low-profile manner. He also indicated a willingness to channel the Embassy's assistance to social projects toward areas that might indirectly be of use to opposition candidates. The Ambassador raised the possibility of USG help in encouraging an electoral observation mission if the opposition believed it were useful. Rosales said he thought international observers would be important. He added, however, that the opposition needed help immediately in raising awareness internationally about Chavez' attacks on institutional democracy. ¶5. (C) Rosales pitched the idea of the three candidates making a swing through Europe, North America, and Latin America to speak to governments and interested actors about Venezuela. He thought April or May would be an appropriate time frame, given that the National Assembly was planning to name the new CNE board by April 27 and that the three candidates would still be jostling for the opposition nomination. Rosales suggested using Sumate to arrange the visit, which Ambassador thought might tarnish Sumate's image as an apolitical organization. The Ambassador, while making clear that the USG did not favor any particular opposition candidate, asked Rosales whether the three of them might agree on a liaison to maintain contact with the Embassy on developing these ideas. Rosales, who was on his way to meet with Petkoff, said he would get back to us. -------------- And Some Maracucho Notes -------------- ¶6. (C) Regarding Zulia matters, Rosales said he was very much in favor of the USG re-opening a permanent diplomatic presence in Maracaibo. Ambassador said he hoped this would take place as early as July, though that date could slip given that the Venezuelan Government would have to give permission for the office. Polled by the Ambassador about prominent Zulians, Rosales said newly-appointed UN Ambassador (and former governor of Zulia) Francisco Arias Cardenas was a sly operator, jealous of Chavez, and had been abandoned by the opposition after losing to Chavez in 2000. Rosales described the New York assignment as a type of exile to keep Cardenas from scheming against Chavez from inside Venezuela. Regarding Ubaldo Santana, the Archbishop of Zulia and new president of the Bishop's Conference (CEV),Rosales said Santana had been playing cool to opposition politicians (Comment: and to the U.S. Ambassador as well),but that this would likely change now that Cardinal Jorge Urosa has been installed in Caracas. Santana, whom Rosales said likes to surf the waves of public opinion, had been jockeying for the senior slot in Caracas but may now be more approachable now that Urosa is in place. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) Rosales is a middle-of-the-road candidate who is by far the most willing to interact with USG officials. The idea of the three candidates going on an international roadshow to call attention to Venezuelan democracy is intriguing. We question, however, whether the three candidates, who seem to talk regularly but span the spectrum politically, could agree to such a coordinated approach. We hesitate to suggest a trip to Washington, though a visit to the OAS early to talk to SecGen Insulza about the elections might be useful. BROWNFIELD