SUMATE'S ALEJANDRO PLAZ REVIEWS ONGOING PROJECTS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CARACAS 000757 SIPDIS SIPDIS HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD DEPT FOR DRL/PHD ODESOTO AND USOAS JMAISTO DEPT PASS TO AID/OTI RPORTER FRC FT LAUDERDALE FOR CLAMBERT COPENHAGEN FOR DLAWTON E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2016 TAGS: PGOV KDEM OAS VE SUBJECT: SUMATE'S ALEJANDRO PLAZ REVIEWS ONGOING PROJECTS, REGIONAL SENTIMENTS REF: A. CARACAS 00101 ¶B. CARACAS 00113 Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT R. DOWNES FOR 1.4 (D) -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) PolCouns met with electoral NGO Sumate President Alejandro Plaz March 21 to discuss the progress of Sumate's audit of the electoral registry and his recent trip to Peru and the United States. Their temporary reprieve from trial is allowing them to re-focus on their electoral activities. The audit is in the beginning stages, but may not receive backing from the nation's universities, as hoped, due to their rectors' insistence on seeking National Electoral Council support and government funding. Meanwhile, the NGO's preparations for a primary for a single opposition candidate and installation of NGO congresses nationwide appear to be on track. Plaz also noted rumors he had heard during his recent travel that Venezuela may declare Inter-American Human Rights Commission rulings non-binding and was threatening to withdraw from the OAS. He expressed concern that such decisions suggested that President Chavez was hardening to international opinion. While the Venezuelan Ambassador may likely be spreading these rumors, we believe the government's recent backing down from the Sumate and Ibeyise Pacheco cases suggests Chavez may indeed still be sensitive to international opinion. End summary. -------------- Trial on Hold, but may go regional -------------- ¶2. (C) On March 21, Sumate President Alejandro Plaz met with Poloffs to discuss the progress of Sumate's audit of the electoral registry, other ongoing projects, and his recent trip to Peru and the United States. Plaz told PolCouns the trial against Sumate for receiving NED funds appeared to be on hold indefinitely. The judge that was dismissed from the case reportedly still has the files so the case cannot be passed to another magistrate. Preeminent human rights lawyer Carlos Ayala has approached Sumate about taking their case to the Inter-American Human Rights Commission's (IACHR). Plaz said Ayala thinks the case could set a precedent for NGOs across the region given that several countries, including Colombia, are currently debating laws aimed at restricting NGO financing. -------------- -------------- Electoral Registry Audit Proceeds Without University Backing -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) Sumate's proposal to audit the electoral registry appears to be on track, but may not receive official endorsements from the nation's four top universities (Central, Simon Bolivar, the Andes, and Catholic University Andres Bello) as hoped (ref a). Plaz explained that the rectors had decided to seek formal National Electoral Council (CNE) approval and government financing for the project. Wary of the CNE's stalling tactics, Sumate preferred not to wait for CNE approval, lest they have no time to press the CNE to correct any serious flaws detected in the registry. The universities are still allowing Sumate to work with their professors, however, and they are now developing a methodology for auditing the electoral registry. CARACAS 00000757 002 OF 003 ¶4. (C) So far Sumate's expectations of the CNE have proven correct. After several postponements, CNE President Jorge Rodriguez finally met with the university rectors March 14. According to CNE director Sobella Mejias (protect),who attended the meeting, Rodriguez appeared to like the rectors' proposal, but she, too, expects him to stall on the proposal. Rodriguez asked the rectors to submit a formal proposal and cease their public criticism of the CNE in order to be considered. (Comment: Now that the CNE has announced the favorable results of the CAPEL audit (septel),it will likely argue that no independent audit is necessary.) -------------- Other Projects for 2006 -------------- ¶5. (C) Plaz opined that the best voters could hope for is that "five Carrasqueros are appointed to the CNE. (Note: This is an allusion to former CNE President Franciso Carrasquero, who presided over the 2004 recall referendum. At first, he was perceived to be a neutral director, but over time revealed his pro-government bias with questionable decisions in President Chavez' favor. He was named to the Supreme Court in 2005.) ¶6. (C) Despite this pessimistic outlook and the current potential candidates' unwillingness, Sumate continues to plan for a primary to choose an opposition candidate. (Note: Post received a copy of a letter from Sumate asking for volunteers to run voting centers for the event.) Plaz recognized the primary could open a fierce competition among the political parties that could leave the winner very weak. Still, one of his secondary goals appeared to be moving the political parties beyond a debate over electoral conditions to one on campaign issues, such as unemployment and security. Plaz also mentioned that Sumate's other project, the National Congress of NGOs, was proceeding well. So far, congresses have been installed in 12 states and Sumate expects to have 19 by the end of April. The national federation will be established in May. -------------- Disillusionment with Regional Prospects -------------- ¶7. (C) Plaz told PolCouns his recent trip to Peru and conversations with OAS Ambassadors in Washington left him depressed about the future of democracy-promoting NGOs in the region. In Peru, he met with NGO leaders, the media, and representatives from several presidential candidates' camps--except from Ollanta Humala's, who refused to return his calls. He likened Peru to Venezuela's situation in 1998 when President Chavez was elected (poor distribution of wealth, disillusionment with political parties, etc.) and said Humala appeared to have a better chance at winning the Peruvian elections than he previously thought. If he won, Plaz thought Chavez' influence with Humala would lead to Peru following the Bolivarian Revolution's example of slowly closing off space for NGOs. (Note: Plaz mentioned plans to visit Mexico and Colombia next.) ¶8. (C) In Washington, Plaz met with OAS Ambassadors from several countries, including Brazil, and OAS 2005 election observation mission leader Ruben Perina. Several Ambassadors told him that Venezuela's OAS Ambassador Jorge Valero has CARACAS 00000757 003 OF 003 privately warned that his country may soon pull out of the organization. Plaz opined the withdraw may be linked to several embarrassments the Venezuelan government has suffered in the OAS, including the negative observation report on the December 2005 legislative elections and its expected placement in chapter four of the Inter-American Human Rights Commission's (IACHR) report. In Peru, a contact who sits on the IACHR told him that Venezuela has reportedly decided the IACHR's decisions would not be binding and was considering taking the same position with respect to Inter-American Court's rulings. If true, Plaz feared these events might be a sign that Chavez is hardening to international opinion. Separately, Plaz was further disappointed by the Brazilian Ambassador's refusal to help him make appointments at the Foreign Ministry. The Ambassador told him his government traditionally has focused its foreign policy on relations with governments and has little interest in dealing with NGOs, a sentiment former Brazilian President Henrique Cardoso confirmed. ¶9. (C) When asked if any of the ambassadors mentioned feeling pressured to take a pro-Venezuelan stances, Plaz said most complained instead about Valero's tendency to bully his counterparts--particularly those from the Caribbean--in private settings. He also said Perina claimed not to be receiving any pressure to soften the observation report from the BRV or Secretary General Insulza, the only person Perina said could exert influence on him. In fact, Perina told Plaz the observation mission's final report would be stronger than the preliminary one. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶10. (C) The government's decision to hold off on the Sumate trial--no matter how temporary--is allowing the NGO to re-focus on its electoral activities. We will continue to periodically meet with Sumate leaders to check the progress of their ambitious agenda. We find it difficult to believe that Venezuela would actually follow through on its apparent threat to pull out of the OAS. Such an action would likely do more harm than good to Chavez' international image, something he is still sensitive to judging by his government's backing off on Sumate and journalist Ibeyise Pacheco in response to international pressure. BROWNFIELD