BRV BACKS OFF ZULIAN SEPARATIST ALLEGATIONS "FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 000662 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/2021 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM VE SUBJECT: BRV BACKS OFF ZULIAN SEPARATIST ALLEGATIONS "FOR NOW" REF: CARACAS 598 Classified By: Robert Downes, Political Counselor, for Reason 1.4(b). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Zulia state governor Manuel Rosales came out swinging March 7 against the separatist allegations launched against him by President Chavez on March 5. On his weekly television program "Alo Presidente", Chavez accused Rosales of working hand in hand with the United States to create a secessionist movement in Zulia, the historical center of Venezuela's rich oil industry (reftel). BRV officials expanded Chavez's allegations March 6 and accused the Ambassador of meeting with the so-called Zulian secessionist group Rumbo Propio ("Own Course"). As he has in the past when confronted with similar allegations, Rosales denied any connection to separatist groups, calling Chavez's accusations a "smokescreen." The Ambassador also flatly rejected any connection with Zulian separatist groups in statements to the press March 9. In an apparent retreat, Attorney General Isaias Rodriguez told the press March 7 that his investigation had not yet uncovered any links between the governor, the Ambassador and Rumbo Propio. While the BRV appears to have backed down for now, we can expect more on this and other allegations as the elections draw closer and the BRV seeks to further distract and discredit Rosales ) one of three potential opposition candidates who could challenge Chavez in December,s presidential elections. End summary. -------------- -- Rosales: Separatist Allegations a "Smokescreen" -------------- -- ¶2. (C) Zulia governor Manuel Rosales launched a counter-attack March 7 against President Chavez's March 5 separatist allegations against him. Calling Chavez's accusations a "smokescreen" intended to distract the public from more important issues, Rosales called the allegations "tremendously irresponsible" and denied any connection with separatist groups, stating plainly that "Zulia is Venezuela and Zulians are first and foremost Venezuelans." According to Rosales, Venezuela should instead focus on selecting a new CNE and ensuring that conditions for clean elections are met -- "issues which will be here when we wake up (from this distraction) and everything is still the same." The governor said he was committed to democracy and determined to find a solution to the country's electoral system issues as well as an opposition candidate for the presidential elections "whoever that candidate is." (Note: Rosales is considered one of three potential opposition candidates who could pose a challenge to Chavez in December. He has not yet declared whether he will run.) -------------- Ambassador Denies BRV Accusations -------------- ¶3. (C) The Ambassador categorically denied any USG involvement with Zulian separatist groups March 9. In response to press questioning, the Ambassador said he had known &old Zulians and young Zulians, thin Zulians and fat Zulians, tall Zulians and short Zulians8 but he had never known any &secessionist Zulians.8 -------------- BRV Backs Off "For Now" -------------- ¶4. (C) Attorney General Isaias Rodriguez backed the BRV away CARACAS 00000662 002 OF 002 from an outright confrontation with the Embassy when he told the press March 7 that his investigation had not uncovered any proof of a relationship between the Ambassador and the alleged secessionist group Rumbo Propio. Rodriguez was careful to leave the door open for future accusations against the Governor, claiming that the investigation was still in its initial stages, but said "for now" there was no proof the governor had met with the group either. The Attorney General was quick to emphasize the "excellent" relationship between Rosales and the Ambassador. He sought to put the responsibility of investigating any impropriety in that relationship onto the Foreign Ministry, claiming it was out of his jurisdiction. Rodriguez said he had initiated a criminal investigation into Rumbo Propio on February 2, and added on March 7 that he was considering "additional action" against the group, without detailing what that action might entail. (Note: Rumbo Propio publicly advocates a free market economy and calls for a state referendum to give Zulia the autonomy to govern itself -- without going so far as to call for Zulia's secession from Venezuela. The group recently posted billboards around Maracaibo which read: "Rumbo Propio: For Zulia! YES to Autonomy. NO to Socialism and Down With the Left." Rumbo Propio is led by two university professors and a retired military officer. It has a website but was essentially unheard of until Chavez,s accusations.) -------------- -------------- Attorney General Moves Against Rosales On Carmona -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) A new wave of legal action against Rosales has already begun. The Attorney General announced March 9 he would ask the Supreme Court to waive Rosales, immunity as a public official so he could bring formal accusations against Rosales for his involvement in the short-lived government of Pedro Carmona. Rosales along with other officials signed the decree known as the &Carmona Decree8 which briefly installed Carmona in power in April 2002. Formal charges have not yet been brought on the case, and the final report from the prosecution,s four year ongoing investigation was only recently submitted to the Attorney General. Should the Supreme Court waive Rosales, immunity as a public official, the prosecution will be able to formally accuse him on the case and open legal proceedings against him ) a form of legal harassment which the BRV is sure to use to attempt to discredit and distract Rosales during this election year. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) While the BRV appears to have backed off of its most recent secessionist allegations against Rosales and implicating the Ambassador, we expect to hear more on this and other issues as the year progresses. Zulian secession is a powerful campaign platform for Chavez because it gives him the opportunity to take pot shots at Rosales and the United States and plays off of the worst fears of a population already inclined to be suspicious of both. A new wave of legal action against Rosales has already begun as the BRV seeks to keep him distracted and off-balance. As the elections draw closer, the BRV is sure to make many more outrageous accusations against the United States and whoever else is willing to stand in the way of Chavez's power grab. BROWNFIELD