VIVA ZULIA - CHAVEZ AGAIN HITS ROSALES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 000598

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2021
TAGS: PGOV PREL VE
SUBJECT: VIVA ZULIA - CHAVEZ AGAIN HITS ROSALES

REF: CARACAS 217

Classified By: Robert Downes, Political Counselor,
for Reason 1.4(b).

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) Chavez accused the U.S. government March 5 of working
behind the scenes to create a secessionist movement in Zulia
to gain control of the state's rich oil industry. Chavez
implicated the state's governor Manuel Rosales with the group
and threatened Rosales with jail time if his accusations
proved true. The chavista spin machine went into overdrive
March 6, following up on Chavez's claims -- MVR deputy
William Lara alleged that the Ambassador had also met with
members of Rumbo Propio to discuss secession. (Note:
According to Embassy records, the Ambassador has never met
with the group or those cited by Lara.) The BRV has been
pushing this separatist line since Chavez visited Zulia in
January, and the March 5 attack on the governor is the latest
in a series of attacks linking him with supposed
secessionists. While Rosales has yet to speak directly on the
latest accusations, his state secretary issued a denial March
6, claiming that Rosales had nothing to do with Rumbo Propio.
We can expect to hear more from the BRV on the secessionist
issue as the elections draw closer. It is a campaign banner
that has the dual advantage of giving Chavez the opportunity
to take pot shots at Rosales, one of three potential
candidates who could pose any threat to him in the
presidential elections, and at the United States at the same
time. End summary.

--------------
Chavez to Rosales: "Don't be crazy"
--------------


2. (C) In the March 5 edition of his weekly television
broadcast Alo Presidente, Chavez accused the United States of
fomenting a secessionist movement to secure a government
loyal to its interests in oil-rich Zulia state. Chavez
accused the group Rumbo Propio ("Own Course") of working hand
in hand with Zulia state governor Manuel Rosales and the
United States to promulgate a referendum that would sever
Zulia from Venezuela. Caracas daily El Nacional ran a profile
on the group that same day. (Note: Rumbo Propio advocates for
a free market economy and calls for a state referendum to
give Zulia the autonomy to govern itself -- without going so
far as to call for Zulia's secession from Venezuela. The
group was essentially unheard of until Chavez,s accusations
and is led by two university professors and a retired
military officer.) Calling upon Rosales not to be "crazy",
Chavez threatened Rosales with jail time if his accusations
proved true and voiced his confidence that the "separatists"
would be defeated by the "Armed Services, the republic, and
above all the noble spirit of the Zulian people." Chavez
argued that the so-called secessionist movement was part of a
U.S. plan to remove him and called upon employees at the
state oil company PDVSA, which has large operations in Zulia,
to join the military reserve in order to guard the refineries
against foreign invasions.

--------------
Chavismo Rallies Around Chavez
--------------


3. (C) Led by MVR deputy William Lara, the chavista spin
machine went into overdrive March 6 to follow up on Chavez's
claims. One step ahead of the curve, the attorney general's
office released a press statement claiming it had opened an
investigation into Rumbo Propio way back on February 2.
Displaying uncharacteristic reserve, Attorney General Isaias
Rodriguez admitted he would have to wait for the
investigation's results prior to forming an official
judgment, but he held out that the group "could have
committed treason." MVR deputy William Lara applauded
Rodriquez's initiative, and called upon him to investigate

CARACAS 00000598 002 OF 002


whether specific members of the group -- Nestor Suarez,
Alberto Manzuetti, and Ildemar Ferrer -- had met on various
occasions with the Ambassador, which he helpfully pointed out
would constitute treason punishable by 20 to 30 years in
prison under article 128 of the penal code. For good measure,
Lara accused the Ambassador of an "open intrusion in
Venezuela's internal affairs" for his alleged meetings with
the so-called secessionist group. Pro-Chavez party Podemos
Secretary General Ismael Garcia and MVR deputy Calixto Ortega

SIPDIS
also issued press statements calling upon Rosales to clarify
his position. Garcia stated that if Rosales took up the
project he would "lose completely and absolutely the support
he has as a regional leader", while Ortega claimed there were
already indications that Rosales was considering supporting
the proposal.

--------------
The Opposition Strikes Back
--------------


4. (C) Rosales has previously denied any connection to
separatist groups, and while he has not spoken directly on
Chavez,s latest accusations, Zulian State Secretary Nelson
Carrasquero issued a categorical denial March 6 of Rosales,
supposed activities with Rumbo Propio, stating that Rosales
&had nothing to do with8 the group. Other opposition
leaders followed suite. Speaking from Zulia state,
ex-National Assembly deputy and Rosales confidant Julio
Montoya responded to Chavez's accusations March 6. Montoya
stated that "We reject the President's accusations linking us
with separatist movements and alliances with the Empire" (a
chavista reference to the United States),and called upon
Chavez to focus instead on addressing Venezuela's many
problems. Montoya played down Rumbo Propio's pro-autonomy
stance, claiming that what Zulia wanted was decentralization
and its legal share of state funds to ensure the continuation
of the state's social services. Opposition party Copei
President Eduardo Fernandez claimed the BRV was sponsoring a
climate of conflict in Zulia and said that Chavez should
treat Zulia's leaders with respect.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


5. (C) We have heard Chavez's separatist allegations against
Rosales before, and we are sure to hear them many times again
over the course of a year in which Chavez continues his
efforts to treat the United States as the opposition
candidate on the Venezuelan presidential ballot, while at the
same time Chavez pummels any possible domestic opposition
candidate. Chavez's rhetoric against Rosales and the United
States March 5 were a convenient spin of the dial -- a
warm-up act to a campaign season which has not yet even
officially begun -- and should be taken with the requisite
grain of salt. Rumbo Propio itself seems to have come out of
nowhere; the timing and focus of the group,s activities
dovetail suspiciously well with Bolivarian propaganda. It
should be viewed with caution. As the elections draw closer,
Chavez's Sunday Alo Presidente program is sure to provide
fodder for many more outrageous accusations against the
United States and whoever else is willing to stand in the way
of a government which steamrolls its opposition.
WHITAKER