Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06CARACAS480
2006-02-21 20:44:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Caracas
Cable title:
NATIONAL ASSEMBLY TAKES UP CNE REPLACEMENT
VZCZCXRO4211 PP RUEHAO DE RUEHCV #0480/01 0522044 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 212044Z FEB 06 FM AMEMBASSY CARACAS TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3295 INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA PRIORITY 6033 RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 5198 RUEHBS/AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS PRIORITY 0414 RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES PRIORITY 1023 RUEHCP/AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN PRIORITY 0048 RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ PRIORITY 1681 RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA PRIORITY 9886 RUEHLI/AMEMBASSY LISBON PRIORITY 1339 RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 0461 RUEHMU/AMEMBASSY MANAGUA PRIORITY 0984 RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 0365 RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO PRIORITY 1753 RUEHSN/AMEMBASSY SAN SALVADOR PRIORITY 0790 RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO PRIORITY 3275 RUEHTC/AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE PRIORITY 0828 RUEHAO/AMCONSUL CURACAO PRIORITY 0612 RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL PRIORITY 0301 RUEHMI/USOFFICE FRC FT LAUDERDALE PRIORITY 2843 RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY RUMIAAA/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY RUEHUB/USINT HAVANA PRIORITY 0500
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CARACAS 000480
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPT PASS TO AID/OTI RPORTER
FRC FT LAUDERDALE FOR CLAMBERT
COPENHAGEN FOR DLAWTON
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/17/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: NATIONAL ASSEMBLY TAKES UP CNE REPLACEMENT
Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT R. DOWNES FOR 1.4 (D)
-------
Summary
--------
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CARACAS 000480
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPT PASS TO AID/OTI RPORTER
FRC FT LAUDERDALE FOR CLAMBERT
COPENHAGEN FOR DLAWTON
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/17/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: NATIONAL ASSEMBLY TAKES UP CNE REPLACEMENT
Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT R. DOWNES FOR 1.4 (D)
--------------
Summary
--------------
1. (C) On February 7, the National Assembly (AN) began the
process of appointing a new National Electoral Council (CNE)
by naming 11 AN deputies to the candidate selection
committee. The committee is currently receiving nominations
for the committee's remaining 10 civil society members, who
are expected to be installed March 7. It is unclear whether
many non-Chavista organizations, including the Church, and
Sumate will decide to participate in the process as many
doubt it will result in a truly independent and impartial
electoral board. Rumors suggest two of the current CNE
directors, including President Jorge Rodriguez, will be
re-named to the CNE. There is little reason to believe that
the Chavista majority on the candidate selection committee
will suggest politically balanced or technically skilled
members; the priority will be to maintain the CNE's Chavista
orientation. End Summary.
--------------
Background
--------------
2. (SBU) According to the Electoral Power Law, the National
Assembly, by two-thirds vote, appoints an Electoral
Postulation Committee, comprised of 11 National Assembly (AN)
deputies and 10 civil society representatives, that will
prepare a list of candidates to serve on the National
Electoral Council (CNE) based on nominations from civil
society, universities, and the Citizen's Power branch of
government (Human Rights Ombudsman, Attorney General and
Comptroller). The committee will then present this list to
the AN, which will choose, by two-thirds vote, five CNE
directors and ten alternates. According to article 296 of
the Constitution, three of the directors must be nominated by
civil society, one by major universities, and one by the
Citizen's Power branch. This process was not used the last
time the CNE board was constituted as the National Assembly
could not reach agreement on the fifth director. The Supreme
Court appointed the board and both the Organization of
American States and European Union observation missions to
the December 4, 2005 National Assembly elections noted the
continued Venezuelan use after some years of a "temporarily"
constituted board.
--------------
Committee Selection Begins
--------------
3. (SBU) On February 7, the AN selected 11 deputies to serve
on the Electoral Postulations Committee, thus taking the
first step to creating a CNE that will preside for the next
seven years. The deputies included second AN Vice President
Roberto Hernandez (Venezuelan Communist Party, PCV),who will
head the committee, another PCV deputy, five Fifth Republic
Movement (MVR) deputies, and one each from Podemos and Patria
Para Todos (PPT),the second and third largest coalition
partners, respectively, who originally proposed the
initiative. Hernandez announced the committee would accept
applications from individuals and civil society NGOs that
want to participate in the selection committee February 13 -
24, and will select 10 representatives March 7. The AN has
CARACAS 00000480 002 OF 003
called on the Church, cooperatives, neighborhood
associations, unions, universities, and other NGOs to
nominate representatives. Once the committee is fully
constituted, the committee will call for nominations, and
groups will have 14 days to suggest candidates, according to
the Electoral Power Law. If the Committee follows the
guidelines in this law, a new CNE could be in place by
mid-May. (Note: According to the Constitution, the CNE
cannot be changed in the six months leading up to an
election, or in this case, after June 3.)
--------------
Who Will Participate?
--------------
4. (C) Few authentically independent organizations appear
willing to participate in the CNE selection process. So far,
Asamblea de Educacion is the only pro-opposition group that
has publicly expressed interest, and press reports as of
February 17 indicate the AN has received less than thirty
applications. The PPT and MVR have asked the Church, widely
viewed as a potentially impartial arbiter, to join the
committee, and suggested that opposition parties make their
suggestions through the Church's representative. On February
14, Bishop Ramon Jose Viloria, the Secretary General of the
Venezuelan Episcopal Conference (CEV),told poloff the CEV
was considering the request, but has serious concerns about
the process resulting in any meaningful change to the CNE
board. Carlos Genatios, board member of the politically
balanced Ojo Electoral, the only government-recognized
domestic observer group, told poloff February 15 that his
organization will likely sit out and observe the process.
They may, at best, suggest candidates through civil society
committee members, Genatios said. Representatives from
Sumate also thought the exercise would only be cosmetic, and
while they would have liked to participate to learn of any
illegal actions taken, they feared their participation would
cost them the ability to comment on the process; other
organizations, including the Church may face a similar
dilemma. Partially as a result of the lukewarm interest,
legislators have initiated a campaign to generate more
interest, which includes television advertisements and
lobbying for participation during the mobile parliament
"parliamentarismo de la calle," in Spanish) sessions that
began February 17.
--------------
Potential CNE Candidates
--------------
5. (C) Three options are being debated for the composition
of the new CNE: ratifying all members in place; replacing all
members, or, more likely, re-appointing some members and
appointing new ones. While several MVR deputies have
advocated ratifying the current CNE directors, the government
may calculate that such a move would help cause a repeat of
the high abstention rate observed during the December 2005
legislative election, undermining President Chavez' goal of
getting 10 million votes. In addition, Sobella Mejias, the
lone opposition voice in the CNE, is due to retire this
summer, according to civil service rules. Most BRV
statements and conventional wisdom suggest the committee will
re-appoint current CNE President Jorge Rodriguez, though not
necessarily as president, and one other director, perhaps
Tibisay Lucena or Oscar Leon Uzcategui, and replace the
others with people deemed more acceptable, yet still
CARACAS 00000480 003 OF 003
pro-government. Hernandez' announcement that the current CNE
directors can re-apply for their job makes the partial
replacement option even more likely. Genatios and Ojo
founder Padre Jose Virtuoso have been floated as potential
candidates, but Genatios claims neither are interested.
(Note: Padre Virtuoso has told the press he may consider an
offer.)
--------------
Comment
--------------
6. (C) Chavez needs to give the impression that he is
changing the CNE in partial response to voter worries about
the CNE's fairness, without giving the impression that he
shares those concerns. He will also ensure the new directors
are malleable enough to allow him to rig the terms in his
favor so he can reach his goal of 10 million votes and make
his victory appear legitimate to the international community.
Therefore, any change to the CNE board will likely be
cosmetic. Even if an opposition-affiliated person is chosen
to serve on the board they will likely be marginalized just
as current opposition director Mejias has been.
WHITAKER
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPT PASS TO AID/OTI RPORTER
FRC FT LAUDERDALE FOR CLAMBERT
COPENHAGEN FOR DLAWTON
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/17/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: NATIONAL ASSEMBLY TAKES UP CNE REPLACEMENT
Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT R. DOWNES FOR 1.4 (D)
--------------
Summary
--------------
1. (C) On February 7, the National Assembly (AN) began the
process of appointing a new National Electoral Council (CNE)
by naming 11 AN deputies to the candidate selection
committee. The committee is currently receiving nominations
for the committee's remaining 10 civil society members, who
are expected to be installed March 7. It is unclear whether
many non-Chavista organizations, including the Church, and
Sumate will decide to participate in the process as many
doubt it will result in a truly independent and impartial
electoral board. Rumors suggest two of the current CNE
directors, including President Jorge Rodriguez, will be
re-named to the CNE. There is little reason to believe that
the Chavista majority on the candidate selection committee
will suggest politically balanced or technically skilled
members; the priority will be to maintain the CNE's Chavista
orientation. End Summary.
--------------
Background
--------------
2. (SBU) According to the Electoral Power Law, the National
Assembly, by two-thirds vote, appoints an Electoral
Postulation Committee, comprised of 11 National Assembly (AN)
deputies and 10 civil society representatives, that will
prepare a list of candidates to serve on the National
Electoral Council (CNE) based on nominations from civil
society, universities, and the Citizen's Power branch of
government (Human Rights Ombudsman, Attorney General and
Comptroller). The committee will then present this list to
the AN, which will choose, by two-thirds vote, five CNE
directors and ten alternates. According to article 296 of
the Constitution, three of the directors must be nominated by
civil society, one by major universities, and one by the
Citizen's Power branch. This process was not used the last
time the CNE board was constituted as the National Assembly
could not reach agreement on the fifth director. The Supreme
Court appointed the board and both the Organization of
American States and European Union observation missions to
the December 4, 2005 National Assembly elections noted the
continued Venezuelan use after some years of a "temporarily"
constituted board.
--------------
Committee Selection Begins
--------------
3. (SBU) On February 7, the AN selected 11 deputies to serve
on the Electoral Postulations Committee, thus taking the
first step to creating a CNE that will preside for the next
seven years. The deputies included second AN Vice President
Roberto Hernandez (Venezuelan Communist Party, PCV),who will
head the committee, another PCV deputy, five Fifth Republic
Movement (MVR) deputies, and one each from Podemos and Patria
Para Todos (PPT),the second and third largest coalition
partners, respectively, who originally proposed the
initiative. Hernandez announced the committee would accept
applications from individuals and civil society NGOs that
want to participate in the selection committee February 13 -
24, and will select 10 representatives March 7. The AN has
CARACAS 00000480 002 OF 003
called on the Church, cooperatives, neighborhood
associations, unions, universities, and other NGOs to
nominate representatives. Once the committee is fully
constituted, the committee will call for nominations, and
groups will have 14 days to suggest candidates, according to
the Electoral Power Law. If the Committee follows the
guidelines in this law, a new CNE could be in place by
mid-May. (Note: According to the Constitution, the CNE
cannot be changed in the six months leading up to an
election, or in this case, after June 3.)
--------------
Who Will Participate?
--------------
4. (C) Few authentically independent organizations appear
willing to participate in the CNE selection process. So far,
Asamblea de Educacion is the only pro-opposition group that
has publicly expressed interest, and press reports as of
February 17 indicate the AN has received less than thirty
applications. The PPT and MVR have asked the Church, widely
viewed as a potentially impartial arbiter, to join the
committee, and suggested that opposition parties make their
suggestions through the Church's representative. On February
14, Bishop Ramon Jose Viloria, the Secretary General of the
Venezuelan Episcopal Conference (CEV),told poloff the CEV
was considering the request, but has serious concerns about
the process resulting in any meaningful change to the CNE
board. Carlos Genatios, board member of the politically
balanced Ojo Electoral, the only government-recognized
domestic observer group, told poloff February 15 that his
organization will likely sit out and observe the process.
They may, at best, suggest candidates through civil society
committee members, Genatios said. Representatives from
Sumate also thought the exercise would only be cosmetic, and
while they would have liked to participate to learn of any
illegal actions taken, they feared their participation would
cost them the ability to comment on the process; other
organizations, including the Church may face a similar
dilemma. Partially as a result of the lukewarm interest,
legislators have initiated a campaign to generate more
interest, which includes television advertisements and
lobbying for participation during the mobile parliament
"parliamentarismo de la calle," in Spanish) sessions that
began February 17.
--------------
Potential CNE Candidates
--------------
5. (C) Three options are being debated for the composition
of the new CNE: ratifying all members in place; replacing all
members, or, more likely, re-appointing some members and
appointing new ones. While several MVR deputies have
advocated ratifying the current CNE directors, the government
may calculate that such a move would help cause a repeat of
the high abstention rate observed during the December 2005
legislative election, undermining President Chavez' goal of
getting 10 million votes. In addition, Sobella Mejias, the
lone opposition voice in the CNE, is due to retire this
summer, according to civil service rules. Most BRV
statements and conventional wisdom suggest the committee will
re-appoint current CNE President Jorge Rodriguez, though not
necessarily as president, and one other director, perhaps
Tibisay Lucena or Oscar Leon Uzcategui, and replace the
others with people deemed more acceptable, yet still
CARACAS 00000480 003 OF 003
pro-government. Hernandez' announcement that the current CNE
directors can re-apply for their job makes the partial
replacement option even more likely. Genatios and Ojo
founder Padre Jose Virtuoso have been floated as potential
candidates, but Genatios claims neither are interested.
(Note: Padre Virtuoso has told the press he may consider an
offer.)
--------------
Comment
--------------
6. (C) Chavez needs to give the impression that he is
changing the CNE in partial response to voter worries about
the CNE's fairness, without giving the impression that he
shares those concerns. He will also ensure the new directors
are malleable enough to allow him to rig the terms in his
favor so he can reach his goal of 10 million votes and make
his victory appear legitimate to the international community.
Therefore, any change to the CNE board will likely be
cosmetic. Even if an opposition-affiliated person is chosen
to serve on the board they will likely be marginalized just
as current opposition director Mejias has been.
WHITAKER