ELECTION UPDATE - DEC 3, CLOSE OF POLLS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CARACAS 003531

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/13/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM VE
SUBJECT: ELECTION UPDATE - DEC 3, CLOSE OF POLLS


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Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT DOWNES,
REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) Summary. While the Venezuelan presidential election
was conducted December 3 without major incidents, both the
Chavez and Rosales campaigns have access to widely varying
exit polls. We do not place much faith in any of these polls
at this point. The National Electoral Council (CNE) is
expected to issue results when it has 80 percent of the
returns, perhaps as early as 8:00 p.m. (local time, EST plus
one hour). The Chavez camp claims it is set to win by at
least twenty points, while the Rosales camp believes it is in
a virtual tie with Chavez. The opposition has already put
down markers regarding voting irregularities, and embassy
observers identified scattered electoral problems in Caracas
and in seven states. The CNE's decision today to limit
international observers' and the opposition's access to its
vote tabulation center will reduce public confidence in a
Chavez declaration of victory. Ambassador and PolCouns have
reached out to the OAS and EU EOMs to underline the
importance of pressing this point. End Summary.

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Voting Problems
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2. (SBU) While there do not appear to have been widespread
problems with the election, the Rosales campaign continues to
complain about voting irregularities. The Rosales camp
voiced concerns that the voting process has been deliberately
slowed down in opposition strongholds, particularly through
technical problems with equipment and the slow processing of
fingerprints. The Rosales campaign claims that as of 1:30
some polling places in opposition areas in Miranda had still
not opened. The campaign also remains concerned that some
prospective Rosales voters received blank printed voter
receipts. Adeco dissident Alfonso Marquina reported to the
CNE that the indelible voting ink being used to avoid
carrousel voting is defective at many voting centers.
Marquina noted that the ink at many centers can be wiped away
readily with alcohol and is different than the ink that the
Rosales camp audited and certified in the run-up to December
3 voting.


3. (SBU) While many polling stations did not open on time and
many voters had to wait over three hours to vote, embassy
observers report that voting lines were generally down
considerably by late afternoon on December 3. Polls were
slated to close at 4:00 p.m. local time, but the CNE gaving
polling centers with persons still in line permission to
extend voting hours to 6:00 p.m.

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Little Transparency at CNE Tabulation Center
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4. (SBU) The CNE decided on December 3 "for lack of space" to
limit the number of observers that can observe work at the
CNE's tabulation center. We understand the OAS and EU both
have been allotted one observer to go to the tabulation
center and that they have been allowed to observe in short
visits at the facilities. They are not allowed to stay there
the entire time. We understand that the OAS EOM requested
the CNE to accredit five observers for such work. The Carter
Center was also planning to be present, but we understand
that at this point they do not have accredited access. The
Rosales camp had been allotted two accredited observers for
the tabulation center, but we understand that they may also
be limited to one. Ambassador and PolCouns contacted senior
officials of both the OAS and EU EOM's and urged them to be
more proactive in monitoring the CNE's tabulation of results,
including by demanding additional observers at the center, if
they believe that to be necessary.

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Competing Exit Polls
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5. (SBU) A wide variety of exit polls are circulating,
indicating everything from a big Chavez win to a small
Rosales lead. At this point, we cannot put much faith in any
of these polls. The CNE reported that 5.5 million voters,
over one-third of the registered electorate, voted by 1:30
p.m. The OAS estimated that 54 percent of registered voters
voted by 3:00 p.m., based on CNE fingerprint date captures,
and expected final voter turnout to be between 60 to 70
percent by 6:00 p.m. The opposition is passing to us exit
polls results that show Rosales running quite close to
Chavez. Senior Rosales aide Diego Arria told deskoff that
the Rosales camp's exit poll numbers indicate that Rosales is

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down by only two percentage points. Another Rosales campaign
aide told polassistant that by mid-afternoon Chavez had an
estimated 3.1 million votes and Rosales had almost 2.9
million. The Rosales camp later reported exit polls showing
Rosales in a "technical tie" or trailing Chavez by less than
two percent. Both exit polls were based, however, on a
methodology that assigned two-thirds of all persons not
responding, 30 percent in this case, to Rosales.


6. (SBU) A Chavez campaign early exit poll, leaked while the
polls were still open, gave Chavez a decisive lead with 60
percent of the vote. The Chavez campaign provided the OAS
with a later exit poll that showed Chavez with 61 percent of
the vote and Rosales with 35 percent of the vote. The OAS
EOM also reportedly picked up an opposition exit poll showing
Rosales trailing by 14 percent.

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Embassy Observation
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7. (SBU) Embassy's informal election observers reported a
number of scattered irregularities this afternoon after
visiting about 150 voting centers and receiving access to
enter about half of them. Active duty National Guard
personnel temporarily prevented one pair of election
observers from departing a polling station in Vargas State,
but permitted them to leave after the Embassy interceded.
Election teams discovered three separate cases of voting
machines being hooked up for transmission before the close of
polls, a violation of CNE norms. Another team found evidence
that fingerprint (digital scanning) machines were
transmitting data.


8. (SBU) Other teams noted that fingerprint machines were
deployed in disproportionate numbers in pro-Chavez areas,
making the voting process much quicker in those areas. In
addition, our observers spotted Chavistas actively making
their presence felt outside some voting centers, in some
cases providing food and water to persons waiting in line, in
other cases, riding en masse on motorcycles through numerous
Caracas neighborhoods. Many teams confirmed isolated cases
of Rosales voters complaining that their printed receipts
were blank.

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Foreign Minister Maduro
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9. (U) Foreign Minister Nicolas Maduro told state TV December
3 that the Chavez government is disposed to try to improve
its relationship with the United States on the basis of
"mutual respect." Asserting that Venezuela's relations with
American civil society, including the U.S. Congress, have
"never been better," Maduro blamed bilateral difficulties on
an "elite" in the American government who want to "turn
Venezuela into an American colony again" (sic). The BRV
Foreign Minister suggested that a re-elected Chavez
government would be open to taking the initial steps to
improve dialogue between the BRV and the United States so
long as U.S. officials respect "the strength of the
Bolivarian revolution." State TV called Venezuelan
Ambassador to the U.S. Alvarez who reported voting was going
well in Venezuela's eight U.S. consulates.

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OAS Press Release
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10. (U) The OAS Election Observation Mission issued a
December 3 press release at 3:00 p.m. stating that by 9:00
a.m., 98 percent of the centers OAS observers had visited had
begun voting, and there were poll watchers ("testigos") in 93
percent of these same centers. TQ OAS EOM also reported
that the electoral register was available for public
consultation in 96 percent of the polling stations visited
and 71 percent of the voting tables were being managed by the
principal members (not substitutes).

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Canadian Woes
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11. (SBU) After withdrawing an offer to include local
Canadian diplomatic personnel in the OAS Election Observation
Mission, OAS EOM Chief Fischer added one Ottawa-based
diplomat to the OAS EOM with the promise of getting CNE
credentials for three other Canadian diplomats on December 3.
The CNE, however, denied all three the promised credentials
at 1:00 p.m. local time, apparently because the OAS decided

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not to include them on their mission as promised. Embassy
and Department contacts with Canadian diplomats derailed
Fischer's ploy of claiming that we insisted that he not
include the Canadians.

BROWNFIELD