STATE OF VENEZUELAN ELECTORAL OBSERVATION EFFORTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CARACAS 003513

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR DFISK AND DTOMLINSON
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS TO USOAS AND USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2026
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE PREL
SUBJECT: STATE OF VENEZUELAN ELECTORAL OBSERVATION EFFORTS

REF: A. CARACAS 03494

B. CARACAS 03506

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Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT R. DOWNES FOR 1.4 (D)


1. (C) Summary. The electoral observation missions (EOMs)
have missed most of the key "lead-up" events in the electoral
preparation process and have had to scale back previously
planned activities. Post believes it to be very unlikely
that they will be able to mount a comprehensive observation
effort. In effect, they will be basing conclusions on an
incomplete, cursory snapshot of the very end of the
presidential campaign. In total, we expect there will be
approximately 225 international accredited observers, and
approximately 800 accredited domestic observers. End Summary.

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CARTER CENTER MISSION
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2. (C) The Carter Center is represented by a small group of
technical observers that plan to work with the EU EOM to
monitor the security of the voting system on election day at
CNE headquarters. The Center hardly has any representation.
The group will consist of twelve technical experts, mostly
from the State of Georgia, who have familiarity with the
voting machines in use - since Georgia uses the same ones in
its elections.


3. (C) The Carter Center had to scrap more medium-term plans
to analyze campaign media coverage, one of the areas of
Chavez' policy most criticized by the EU and OAS during the
December 2005 National Assembly elections, because of late
CNE approval/mission deployment. The CNE previously rejected
a Carter Center proposal to evaluate existing -- and largely
inadequate -- audits of the electoral registry.

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EUROPEAN UNION MISSION
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4. (C) After receiving an invitation to observe in June, the
EU signed its MOU with the CNE on November 15. EU EOM head
Monica Frassoni, who has experience in regional electoral
observation in Bolivia, has been in Venezuela since November
15 with 10 core team members. Thirty "long-term" observers
arrived last week, to be followed by 100 "short-term"
observers by the end of this week. In total, the EU is
planning to have 126 observers on the ground. It will be the
largest EOM, with the most lead time on the ground. The EU
EOM does not plan to issue any public statement, absent any
egregious problems, until the morning of December 5.

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OAS MISSION DEVELOPMENTS
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5. (C) The OAS EOM team is on the ground but with few people.
Ambassador Brownfield met with OAS EOM Head and former
Uruguayan Ambassador to the OAS Jose Enrique Fischer on
November 29 (REF A). Fischer noted that the captahuella
issue and adequate opposition representation at the mesas
were issues the OAS plans to raise directly with the CNE.
Although Fischer noted that the OAS is talking with the EU
Mission, he didn't detail how efficiencies could be enhanced
between the two missions.


6. (C) OAS Assistant Secretary for Political Affairs Dante
Caputo arrives in Caracas on Saturday, December 2. Former
Canadian Ambassador to the OAS Paul Durand arrived late
Wednesday, although it still is not clear what his role in
the EOM will be other than serving as a "close advisor" to
Fischer. (Comment: We expect Caputo to be closely following
EOM developments and reporting directly to OAS SYG Insulza
regarding mission concerns).


7. (C) The OAS EOM will focus on monitoring the audits
remaining for the fingerprint machines, campaign abuses,
distribution of election materials, as well as voting day
procedures, including electoral violence or intimidation. The
OAS plans to individually field 60 observers throughout the
country, with 5 additional technical observers in the central
tally center here in Caracas. The 60 observers will witness

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the opening and closing of tables, and support the OAS Quick
Count.


8. (C) EOM technical advisor Elizabeth Spehar noted to
PolCons and USOAS officer her belief that the OAS will have
adequate access to the CNE's central voting tally center,
although she noted it will be physically tight difficult to
accommodate many people there. (Comment: The Rosales camp
has indicated concern that it may not have adequate access to
the center for its party watchers, a concern which the OAS
plans to raise with the CNE. End comment).


9. (C) Although the OAS EOM agreement with the CNE appears to
prohibit the EOM from making public statements without prior
CNE vetting (per CNE Resolution 061005-858),Spehar noted
that Fischer and Insulza are coordinating very closely. She
also indicated that OAS press statements and reporting will
occur with Insulza's direct review and guidance. (Comment:
Insulza seems to be watching the EOM very closely from afar,
likely out of an understandable fear that Fischer cannot be
trusted to act appropriately when required).


10. (C) Asked about last years' unfulfilled OAS
recommendations, Spehar said that if the EOM Chief Juan
Enrique Fischer agreed, the OAS EOM would discuss these in
its post-election press conference and preliminary report.
Spehar confirmed that the OAS final EOM report will be
presented via Insulza to the OAS Permanent Council.


11. (SBU) Current level of donor support for the OAS EOM, per
the OAS Secretariat:

Dutch: 225,000 USD
Canada: 100,000 CAN
Brazil: 10,000 USD
OAS Regular Fund: 18,000 USD
TOTAL: Approx. 338,000 USD

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QUICK COUNTS: TO BE CARRIED OUT BY OAS AND ROSALES
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12. (C) The OAS will include 60 "primary" table samples, and
20-30 "secondary" table samples in its Quick Count. However,
the OAS is not yet sure how many secondary samples it will be
able to secure because of the time needed to get observers
from their primary table to their secondary table; the two
will likely be quite far from each other. It is also not
clear when the results of the count will be released, since
the closing of the mesas is expected to be extended well into
the evening. (Comment: The tables are now set to close at
4pm on Sunday, although extensions are common in Venezuela.
End Comment). The OAS is using the same Brazilian elections
expert for this quick count tabulation it has used in the
past for both Nicaragua and Ecuador.


13. (C) The Rosales camp will also be conducting two "quick
counts," planning to report results from about 200 polling
stations when the official tally sheets (actas) are posted.
These counts will supplement information available during and
immediately after the electoral process from Rosales' poll
watchers (testigos). Rosales plans to have party testigos at
each of the 33,000 mesas in the country on election day, in
each of the 11,000 voting centers. However, we understand
that the Rosales campaign is still struggling to deploy 1.
enough trained testigos and 2. the technology capable of
quickly tallying the actas from the testigos. The Rosales
camp hopes to use high-speed scanners to compile rapidly the
acta results on election night. In short, financing,
technology issues, training of poll watchers, and a fear of
intimidation remain serious challenges for the Rosales camp.

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U.S. EMBASSY OBSERVATION
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14. (C) The embassy is planning to field 15 teams of two
people, with 45 people in total, to observe the elections
without formal CNE accreditation. (Comment: No embassies in
Caracas have separate accreditation to observe, although a
number of embassy personnel do have accreditation to observe
via the EU and OAS missions). Last year, US Embassy
observers were able to enter most voting centers without

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official accreditation with transparent rules of engagement.
The embassy teams will be deployed in Caracas and in eight
additional states. The embassy control center will have 8-10
people.

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DOMESTIC NGO OBSERVERS
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15. (C) Ojo Electoral, the largest independent domestic
observer NGO group, had planned to have 400 observers
accredited by the CNE this week (Ojo initially hoped to have
1,000 observers). However, post learned Wednesday that this
number has been cut by the CNE down to 50 observers, severely
hindering Ojo's ability to observe. The OAS plans to raise
this issue with the CNE directly.


16. (C) Radar de los Barrios, a pro-Chavez group with no
previous election monitoring experience and no training for
election observation, plans to have 50 accredited observers.
Radar de los Barrios has a heavy representation of chavistas
- despite the leader of the group being from the opposition.
The focus of Radar is incidencia publica in the barrios,
trying to force the government to resolve local issues.


17. (C) Asamblea de Educadores, a pro-opposition group that
has made some overtures to the BRV over an education reform
bill, has been accredited with 350 observers. The group also
has no observer experience, and may not even have 350 regular
members. The Asemblea de Educadores was among the
organizations that the government loudly decried in 2004 for
having received funding from NED, and despite efforts to
change their image still are perceived as opposition.
Asemblea de Educadores will be coordinating with Radar de los
Barrios.


18. (C) Comment: Simplistically, Asemblea represents the
opposition, Ojo the middle, and Radar the chavistas. But
with Ojo's numbers cut back, and the inclusion of two other
organizations who will be unlikely to mount a credible
observation effort, the net result is symbolic electoral
observation on the part of civil society. End Comment.

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POLITICAL OBSERVATION
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19. Poll (mesa) workers were chosen by lottery by the CNE, a
process that has generally been fair -- although CNE training
of these workers, particularly those associated with the
opposition has been very slow. The CNE can appoint selected
substitutes in the event that not enough workers are trained.


20. Party testigos were accredited for observation after
registering via an online application supported by the CNE.
OAS' Spehar reports that this process has gone well, noting
that the head of the CNE "knows her onions" and appears to be
working with the opposition to ensure that their testigos are
registered for election day.

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COMMENT
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5. (C) The December 3 Venezuelan Presidential elections would
have benefited from a robust international observation effort
had the missions begun earlier with strong leadership. Post
believes it to be very unlikely that the missions will now be
able to mount a comprehensive observation effort. Domestic
observers continue to face basic accreditation challenges.
BROWNFIELD