VENEZUELAN ELECTION UPDATE: FIVE DAYS OUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 003483

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SIPDIS

NSC FOR DTOMLINSON
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM VE
SUBJECT: VENEZUELAN ELECTION UPDATE: FIVE DAYS OUT


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Classified By: Robert Downes, Political Counselor,
Reason 1.4(d)


1. (C) Summary. President Chavez continues to travel widely
in Venezuela and open major public works projects during the
final days of campaigning. Opposition candidate Manuel
Rosales met November 27 with members of the European Union's
Election Observation Mission (EU EOM) and publicly urged the
CNE to address concerns about the government obstructing his
campaign's poll-watching efforts. The Ambassador met
November 28 with Caracas-based EU Ambassadors who agreed that
the EU EOM should exchange views with post's informal
observers to the extent possible. OAS Secretary General
Insulza reportedly told a Madrid press conference November 27
that the Venezuelan opposition has been given "much more
space to participate than people acknowledge." Citing
widespread public mistrust in the electoral process,
Venezuelan Cardinal Jorge Urosa Savino is publicly urging the
National Electoral Council (CNE) to count all the printed
receipts of electronic votes rather than audit just 54
percent of receipts, as planned. End Summary.

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Rosales Campaign
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2. (C) Opposition candidate Manuel Rosales will hold his
trademark "Avalanche" rally in Puerto La Cruz, Anzoategui
State in eastern Venezuela today, November 28. Some senior
advisors to Rosales concede that the Zulia governor continues
to trail Chavez, but still hold out hope for an eleventh hour
electoral upset. Other Rosales supporters remain convinced
Rosales is actually ahead. Rosales reportedly told one
advisor that he has both "a box of handkerchiefs and a box of
fireworks" ready for election day. Rosales' election
monitoring team conducted its first test of its election
monitoring systems with campaign poll-watchers in the field.
The campaign is still only able to deploy trained witnesses
to about two-thirds of the over 33,000 voting tables,
according to a Rosales' electoral advisor.

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Chavez Campaign
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3. (SBU) President Chavez is scheduled to campaign November
28 in the eastern state of Delta Amacura, a state with fewer
than 100,000 inhabitants. On November 27, Chavez inaugurated
the Venirauto assembly plant, a joint venture between Iranian
company Aidco and Venezuelan state-owned company, VenInsa.
Chavez claimed the plant will produce 10,000 low-cost
vehicles annually. The inauguration is a bit early; the
plant is scheduled to be ready by mid-2007 at the earliest.

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Observers
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4. (U) Rosales met November 27 with members of the European
Union's Election Observation Mission (EU EOM). Rosales said
he told the EU EOM that their evaluation of the presidential
election should take into consideration the entire campaign,
particularly the government's "abuses of power," and not just
the voting on election day. He also publicly urged the CNE
to correct problems with the issuance of credentials to his
campaign poll-watchers, as well as avoid further last-minute
changes to the randomly-selected polling officials. After
the meeting, Rosales denied the allegation of Accion
Democratica President Victor Bolivar that the CNE is steering
the audit of voting machines to pre-selected machines.


5. (C) Ambassador met with local EU Ambassadors to discuss
pre and post election scenarios. The EU Ambassadors
expressed confidence that the military would not interfere
with the voting process and predicted Chavez would almost
certainly win. They also agreed that the EU and OAS missions
should coordinate as during last year's legislative
elections. The EU Ambassadors also pledged that EU mission
members, wherever and whenever possible, should exchange
views with post's informal observers on election day.


6. (U) During a press conference in Madrid, OAS Secretary
General Insulza praised the competitiveness of the
presidential campaign and said the "opposition has been given
much more space to participate than people acknowledge." As
further proof of the freedom of expression, Insulza noted the

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November 25 Rosales march "would have been more difficult if
there was as much fear in Venezuela as is claimed." Insulza
hoped the EOM would be able to say by December 6 that the
election was free and fair. Separately, OAS EOM leader Juan
Fischer met with member of the Joint Chiefs (CUFAN) General
Guido Querales November 27 to discuss the logistics of "Plan
Republica," the military's support program for the elections,
and to ensure that the military orders conformed to their
constitutional duties.

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CNE/BRV Actions
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7. (U) CNE will set up a situation center December 1 to
provide assistance to voting stations that experience last
minute problems, such as a lack of materials or poll workers,
or problems with machines. Separately, CNE director Sandra
Oblitas announced that voters who fail to deposit their
voting receipts in the boxes on election day could be accused
of violating electoral law. She also clarified that the
president of each electoral table is responsible for
overseeing the hot audit of voting receipts, which should be
public.


8. (SBU) CNE President Tibisay Lucena said November 23 that
it will not permit any type of survey or exit poll by
individuals or organizations in voting centers on election
day. Rosales' electoral advisors told POLOFF November 24
that they were seeking clarification of that statement. The
Rosales campaign still plans to do exit polls outside voting
centers, and never had any intention of trying to enter
polling sites to do exit surveys. At his November 26 mass
rally in Caracas, President Chavez said his campaign would
also conduct exit polls. He also said he expected the
opposition to publicize skewed exit poll returns on election
day prematurely as part of a "plan" to allege government
fraud.


9. (SBU) The Ministry of Education has ordered all schools to
be closed November 30 to December 4. Many schools will serve
as voting stations on December 3, but the decree applies to
all schools. Escuela Campo Alegre, which almost all Embassy
children attend, is not a polling place, but will be closed
per the Ministry of Education decree. According to CNE
regulations, all campaigning must end by 6:00 a.m. on Friday,
December 1 -- 48 hours before voting begins.

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Other Developments
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10. (SBU) The Catholic Church: Venezuelan Cardinal Jorge
Urosa Savino publicly urged the CNE November 27 to count all
the printed receipts of votes registered electronically to
ensure greater public confidence in the electoral results.
Current CNE audit procedures require opening -- at random --
only some of the electoral boxes according to a prescribed
formula. For example, at polling stations with two election
tables, one box will be opened; where there are three to five
tables, two will be opened, and where there are six to eight,
three will be opened. The end result is that a little over
54 percent of all printed receipts will be scrutinized in the
audits. Cardinal Urosa also rejected efforts to create a
climate of "pre-violence" before the election. He urged the
eventual winner to govern with a "democratic attitude, with
respect for others and without arrogance." Urosa repeated
his concerns and presented the Episcopal Conference's
declaration to OAS EOM leader Fischer during their November
28 meeting.


11. (SBU) Baseball and Politics: The Venezuelan professional
baseball league has moved its all-star game, originally
scheduled for November 28, to December 11. According to the
Vice President of the Venezuelan Players' Association, the
league was unable to schedule the game at University Stadium
in Caracas on November 28. However, government officials
offered the field at the Fuerte Tiuna military installation
in Caracas as an alternative on the same date, with the idea
that President Chavez would attend the event. After players
objected to the politicization of the all-star game right
before the December 3 election, the league decided to
schedule the all-star game December 11 at University Stadium.

BROWNFIELD